PP Gold Cup: Crus can cruise and Pady can place

Grands Crus on his way to winning the Feltham

Timeform's Matt Gardner takes an early look at the Paddy Power Gold Cup, the feature event at Cheltenham on Saturday...

The list of boxers to progress to the professional ranks having competed at the Olympics, which is restricted to amateurs, reads like a who's-who of the boxing elite, with names such as Ali, Frazier, Foreman, de la Hoya and Leonard being the most prominent. The Olympics serves as a kind of training ground, with the event itself being the pinnacle of the amateur career before the individual embarks upon his professional calling.
 
And so it is for the novice chaser, who hones his skills throughout the National Hunt season before attempting to deal a telling blow to his Cheltenham rivals at the equine equivalent of the Olympic games, with the Arkle, the Jewson and the RSA being the long-term aim of many a first-season chaser. As they move into their second season, almost like a boxer moving into the professional ranks they are now going to come up against some battle-hardened and astute operators, and they must find their feet rapidly. Grands Crus and Al Ferof are both making that transition this season and, instead of heading straight into Grade 1 company, they will contest the Paddy Power Gold Cup, a race which is traditionally hotly-contested. 

The tale of the tape reads interestingly with the two greys difficult to split on Timeform master ratings, Grands Crus emerging marginally superior with a figure of 162p ahead of Al Ferof's 160+, and it is also tough to separate them in terms of physical size and presence. Where comparison can be drawn however is in their respective novice chase campaigns, as they have a fairly similar look to them.

Grands Crus began life over fences immaculately, simple successes at Cheltenham and Newbury preceding a stunning triumph in the Feltham at Kempton, where he thumped subsequent RSA Chase winner Bobs Worth and recent Charlie Hall winner Silviniaco Conti, looking an outstanding novice in the process. All cannot have been well in the RSA as Grands Crus finished some 17 lengths behind Bobs Worth, but that it is more than worth forgiving as the suspicion is that his excellent strike-rate at three miles has been achieved almost in spite of the trip, and his style of racing is likely to prove well suited by this trip of two and a half. 

Al Ferof kicked off his novice chase campaign in similarly impressive style, winning at Cheltenham and Kempton before running right up to that form when third to Somersby and Finian's Rainbow pitched in against 'the pros' at Ascot. His below-par efforts in the Arkle, where he lost all chance by banking the tenth fence, and at Aintree, where he was probably over the top for the season, are best forgiven, and he remains with abundant promise for the season ahead.
 
The vital piece of information that differentiates them with regards Saturday's race is their respective BHA ratings and the amount of weight they must therefore carry. In contrast to us here at Timeform the BHA have granted Al Ferof a figure of 159, 2 lb higher than Grands Crus' 157, and that is what tips the balance in favour of Grands Crus. Not only does he receive weight from his strongest rival but he could go on to simply be a better horse, and that is not to the detriment of Al Ferof as they are both gifted. A BHA mark of 157 could vastly underplay Grands Crus true ability, remembering that, on the same scale, he would receive weight from Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti, horses he beat so easily in the Feltham. If he's back in that form he'll be very tough to beat. 

However, Grands Crus' current price of 3.211/5 suggests we're not exactly alone in our assertion that he's the likeliest winner, so there is nothing to stop us seeking an alternative to place at a bigger price. 

Calgary Bay, who enjoyed an excellent beginning to 2012 with success on New Year's Day over C&D and on his next start in a competitive event at Doncaster, has to be considered for new trainer Mick Channon. His stamina for the Grand National was far from assured, so his effort at Aintree can be overlooked, and there is every chance he can bounce back here, although entries in the Betfair Chase and the Hennessy mean he is not a definite participant. 

Hunt Ball, who could still have more to offer following a remarkable campaign last time around, Walkon and Michael Flips all strike as types to go well, albeit without making any great appeal at the prices in the place market, but one who does is former Arkle winner Forpadydeplasterer. 

Although clearly not as good as he once was, Forpadydeplasterer was running consistently well in the top races last season, simply finding himself unable to make an impact against the likes of Finian's Rainbow and Somersby. However, a second-placed effort to Sizing Europe on his reappearance at Gowran Park and a spin on the Flat at Galway both offered signs of encouragement, and he can be backed at 36.035/1 to win and 5.85/1 to place. His BHA mark of 150 certainly looks fair given that he seemingly retains more than enough ability to get himself involved at the business end of this race, and he may just fly under the radar of many now aged 10 and somewhat past his prime. 

Although competitive, this handicap could readily boil down to a brace of second-season chasers, namely Grands Crus and Al Ferof. With the Grands Crus looking more than capable of taking advantage of a lenient mark he is the one taken to triumph, but he is a fairly restrictive price so it could be worth siding with Forpadydeplasterer in the place market. He isn't as good as he once was but there have been definite signs of encouragement on his last couple of starts, over jumps and on the Flat, and he could go well at appealing odds. 

Recommendations
Back Grands Crus @ 3.211/5 to win
Back Forpadydeplasterer @ 5.85/1 to place

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