Jamie Lynch's Weekend Preview: Shop around for the best bets

Grands Crus: Will he be a gift on Saturday?

To relieve the guilt of watching Cheltenham all weekend when the powers that be tell us we should be shopping for Christmas, Jamie Lynch argues the two aren't that far apart in his preview of the Open meeting.

There are differences between males and females. Racing recognises it through the sex allowance for fillies and mares, and in society the distinctions between men and women can be crystallised, especially at this time of year, to a single phenomenon: shopping.

With six weeks until Christmas, while men are either watching sport or sleeping through any noise, but all the time maintaining a vice-like grip on the remote control, women are buying or thinking through buying various presents; and then, for the undertaking of Christmas shopping, the men tend to treat it like a hostage rescue - get in, get it, get out - while the women seem hostages to procrastination and to the manipulative tricks of the in-store trade. A Russian study found that men rush and women study. 

A sweeping generalisation, yes, but explainable in psychological and evolutionary terms, also yes. The hunting and gathering ritual that's been subsiding for thousands of years is still at play, whereby, in ancient times, men had to get the meat home as soon as possible while women, in their duty of gathering provisions, had to take time to make the best choice for both quality and safety. And the visual merchandising consultants, employed by retailers to seduce us pre-Christmas, prey on our predictive behaviour, men and women alike.

But what's this got to do with racing? Well, there are some psychologists looking out for us, rather than the dark side, and it struck me that their 'dos and don'ts' guidance for stress-free, intimidation-free Christmas shopping are equally, if not more, applicable to effective betting.

Don't shop when sad, nor on an empty stomach, nor when drunk, but do stay disciplined and do pay by cash rather than card. 

I don't know about you, but my biggest and best betting failures have involved combinations of sadness and hunger, generally following the same equation (loss of selected horse = loss of happiness + loss of appetite), compounded by the inevitable chase-up, unplanned and off-piste, often when piste, all under the misapprehension that it's not real money being haemorrhaged because the business is being conducted by card over the internet. 

I fully intend to apply the advised strategy, to both Christmas shopping and betting...but after this weekend, because this weekend, with the presents to be unwrapped at Cheltenham, is like Christmas come early for us racing lovers. 

In terms of the various categories of Christmas gifts, let's sneak a peek at some of the equine goodies who might just bring tidings of comfort and joy, not to mention cash, at Cheltenham over the next few days. 

THE MAIN PRESENT

The main present, befitting its status, must be the focus of the financial layout and should have legs, i.e. bringing long-term rather than one-day benefits, such as things with plugs for the men and things that sparkle for the women, and Darlan definitely fits that bill. One of the leading novices of last season, finishing second then first at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals respectively, Darlan's long-term appeal for the Champion Hurdle will be boosted by short-term gains made in the valuable handicap on Sunday, in a Grade 3 event in which the higher-rated types like him towards the top of the weights have tended to make their class count.
 
Since Rooster Booster completed the double in 2002/3, all bar two of the nine Greatwood winners have gone on to the Champion Hurdle, and Darlan, who's had experience of such a ferocious handicap previously, when sure to have been bang there with the likes of Zarkandar, Get Me Out of Here and Raya Star but for falling two out in the Betfair Hurdle, looks Champion material.    

THE SECONDARY PRESENT

Not only does he have a name that sounds like a fine wine, the ideal secondary present, Grands Crus fulfills the next-best criteria for a next-best gift as providing a temporary high. I'm not convinced - along with many after the RSA Chase - that he'll go all the way to the top over fences as he once promised, but the suspicion is that the secondary Gold Cup on Saturday might be his main Gold Cup anyway, and that he'll have been primed to cash in on a mark of 157, which looks lenient remembering his defeat of Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth in the Feltham. 

On his form in the book, Grands Crus is Timeform top-rated in the Paddy Power, but it's a short price - probably shorter than the 3.55/2 he is for the race on Betfair - that he'll achieve even more for coming back to two and a half miles, being such a strong-traveller, and there is one small fact that serves as a reminder of the size of his engine: no horse has ever run Big Buck's closer over hurdles in Britain. Some have got as close, but none closer. 

THE STOCKING FILLER   

A present of less significance, but one that might just hit the spot, is the remit of a stocking filler and the theory behind Bradley. It's all about the trip for ex-hunter Bradley, for whom it's a case of the stiffer the test the better (won over three and a half miles at Haydock in the spring), and he gets a suitable distance in the Grade 3 Handicap at 13:55 on Saturday, on the back of an encouraging reappearance at the track last month in a race, and under a ride, that didn't get to the bottom of him. 

THE SECRET SANTA

The workplace wild card. We obviously don't practice it at Timeform, which is full of asocial men who have better uses of work time, such as pushing the boundaries of a safe search, but the abstract anonymity makes the Secret Santa potentially exciting, and the abstract anonymity makes Vasco du Ronceray potentially exciting in the Triumph Hurdle Trial on Saturday. 

We don't know what to expect from him, after a British debut in which he beat trees, but, as far as visual impressions go, he looked very good, and he's from the right stable, hence the Timeform large 'P'. Far West sets a high standard, but Vasco du Ronceray is literally the surprise package. 

THE GIFT FROM THE GODS

Sprinter Sacre.     

THE DISAPPOINTING ONE

Hunt Ball. He's Knott for me on Saturday. Last season was remarkable, but he not only has to pick up where he left off, he's got to improve again, which is a huge ask, much bigger than odds of 8.07/1 would suggest. And, call me Scrooge if you like, but the Hunt Ball circus has gone from refreshing to annoying, the song release - Lump On - Hunt Ball - being the last straw. Unbearable. I'd rather go shopping.