F1 Betting: Why Fernando Alonso will win the 2012 Drivers' Championship

Alonso in Abu Dhabi

The Betfair Contrarian explains why he believes that the Spanish two-time champ can upset the odds and eclipse Sebastian Vettel in the race for the Drivers' Championship... 

The Formula One season is thundering towards a nail-biting climax and just two men are left with hopes alive. The cocksure German Sebastian Vettel leads the way in his Red Bull as the F1 parade rolls into the unfamiliar surroundings of Texas for its penultimate showdown, but looming large in his rear-view mirror is Ferrari's Fernando Alonso. Vettel is 1.251/4 to bag a Driver's Championship hat-trick, but with only ten points separating him from fellow triple chaser Alonso, the Contrarian thinks you'd be mad not to cash in on the Spaniard at a handsome 4.84/1. Here's why... 

Alonso relishes a new track

Austin's Circuit of The Americas is a brand new challenge for F1 teams and no one is more adaptable to fresh tarmac than Alonso. Of the last four maiden Grands Prix on the F1 calendar the Spaniard has triumphed in two of them - India and Singapore - and just a year on from his first peek at Bahrain and China's new layouts, he took the chequered flag there too. With the sparkling new surroundings of the Texas circuit next up, Alonso has proven he is one driver who won't be fazed. 

Leading into the last race can be a curse

There is every chance this F1 championship will follow the trend of four out of the last six and go right to the wire in Brazil. If it does, barring a mistake or unforeseen mishap, Vettel will still be heading the field even if Alonso does finish ahead of the German in Texas. As Alonso agonisingly found out in 2010, this is not necessarily an enviable position. Lewis Hamilton led going into the last race in 2007 only to be pipped by Kimi Raikkonen at Interlagos. The very next season the British driver came so close to botching it again in spite of leading going into the last race, before pulling off a last lap overtake to grab the title. 

Alonso usually sings in the rain

As was witnessed in that dramatic finale for Hamilton back in 2008, the weather in Brazil played a massive part in his success as his bravado in the rain repaid him with the ultimate prize. At this stage the forecast for Texas shows the conditions to be fairly settled but Brazil has regularly thrown in some precipitation. One of Alonso's three race wins this season came in Malaysia where a torrential downpour made for treacherous conditions, only for the Spaniard to wipe the floor with the rest of the field with his baby smooth style and race maturity. 

The Spaniard will not endure a repeat of 2010

Leading the championship going into the final race of the 2010 season, the masterful Spaniard only needed to finish fifth to scoop a third world title. For that entire campaign, as he has done this, Alonso's unrivalled skills behind the wheel enabled him to drag around an inferior machine and somehow still be up there fighting with Red Bull at the end. However, in Abu Dhabi the combination of a horrendous tactical mistake by his team and a controversial drive from Vitaly Petrov conspired to prevent him claiming the crown. Ferrari and Alonso will not let this happen again.

The pressure of history is on Vettel

As the championship leader and reigning double world champion the young German is shouldering all the pressure. Unsurprisingly, since 1957, the only man to have claimed three successive world championships is Michael Schumacher, showing just what a ridiculously hard feat it is. The cracks were already starting to show in Abu Dhabi the team's decision to test the fuel rules to the limit resulted in his starting grid disqualification.