Autumn Internationals: Wales v Samoa, Italy v New Zealand

New Zealand's goal-kicking options are strong even if Dan Carter doesn't start

Wales look to bounce back from last weekend's disappointment, whilst the All Blacks look to keep up a winning streak against the Italians

Wales v Samoa
Friday 1930hrs
ESPN

Wales have made wholesale changes as they look to recover from the disheartening defeat against Argentina on Saturday. Out go not only fringe players such as Scott Williams, but hardened veterans such as Gethin Jenkins, Rhys Priestland and even captain Sam Warburton. Ryan Jones returns to lead the side from the blind side, whilst Warburton's place goes to Justin Tipuric.

Whether any of this will make any difference to a side who looked short on ideas against the Pumas remains to be seen. Stand in coach Robert Howley resisted the temptation to move winger George North to centre in place of Williams, but there's little evidence of more invention behind the scrum, whilst the giant Samoan pack is likely to strike fear into the makeshift Welsh front row.

Don't be confused by England's easy win over Fiji last weekend, Samoa are a very different proposition, with 21 of their 23 players playing top level rugby, mostly in either the Aviva Premiership or the Top 14. With all of that in mind, back Samoa at 5.39/2 to give the Welsh another disappointing weekend in Cardiff.

Italy v New Zealand
Saturday 1400hrs
ESPN

The All Blacks go into this game without flanker Aaron Thompson, banned for mistaking the head of Scotland's Alasdair Strokosch for a rugby ball. Not that this will bother them too much. New Zealand are unbeaten in 11 games against the Italians and the closest the men in blue have ever come was a thirteen point defeat in 1991. Moreover, the Italians have never scored more than two tries in a game against them. Oh, and they only just scraped past Tonga last weekend, too.

All of which means that it is very hard to find. Bear in mind, though, that the All Blacks started slowly against Scotland at the weekend, gave up the first try of the game and only really siezed the game in the final thirty minutes. If you believe that lightning can strike twice, then the 3.3512/5 on offer for Italy to score the first try looks good. An even better, though, is the 2.47/5 for the first scoring play to be an All Black penalty; even if Dan Carter is left on the bench, the goalkicking options available are too prolific and too accurate to ignore, especially at this price.

Recommended Bet:

Back New Zealand to score first with a penalty at odds of 2.47/5