вторник, 16 октября 2012 г.

World Cup 2014: The pick of the South American qualifiers

Argentina's super star Lionel Messi

The South American qualifiers are approaching the halfway stage. Here Ed Malyon previews four of today's fixtures...

Bolivia v Uruguay - 21:00

How things have changed in just a year for Oscar Washington Tabarez.

Twelve months ago his side had just won the Copa America in Argentina and were still dining out on their third place at the World Cup in South Africa but things have changed and they have taken just one point from their last nine in qualifying as well as a disappointing Olympics in London.

Bolivia play their home games at the highest stadium above sea level anywhere in the world and this has long been their greatest strength.

Nonetheless, they only have a victory over the worst Paraguay side in a decade to show for themselves this campaign as well as two draws and this could be just the game that the Celeste needed to get back on track.

They may have barely got out of their own half against a Messi-inspired Argentina on Friday but this will be a completely different proposition for Uruguay and Luis Suarez will be key.

His performances for the national team are regularly far better than even those he puts in at club level, and he should lead them to victory in La Paz with the price on offer being 2.727/4 but the Draw No Bet option perhaps safer.

Venezuela v Ecuador - 00:00

This promises to be a fascinating tie between two of the lesser-fancied sides that both now stand a terrific chance of qualification.

The Ecuadorians have a five-point buffer and look almost certain now to take their place at Brazil 2014, even if it's only the halfway mark.

Venezuela are just one point behind Uruguay and Chile but have already got their harder fixtures out of the way. Of their remaining eight games in qualifying, five are at home, and with Cesar Farias in charge they seem genuinely capable of reaching their first ever World Cup.

Both sides boast players in some of Europe's top leagues as well as some impressive lesser-known individuals but their successes are based more on the collective.

The team performances from El Tri to beat Chile on Friday night was one of resilience, energy and a deep-lying understanding of each others roles - even if they also had some help from the referee.

Venezuela had a night off on Friday, so will be extra prepared for a game where a win would mark them out as serious automatic qualification contenders, possibly at the expense of some of the continents bigger hitters.

This game is tough to call, and Venezuela are 2.265/4 favourites mainly due to Ecuador's away record. Ecuador have won their last nine home games to help lift them so far up the qualification table, but they're yet to win an away qualifier and didn't win a game in the Copa America last summer either.

El Vinotinto may come out on top but they are a touch too short when the game is so even. This might be one to bet In-Play and see how the home side start.

Paraguay v Peru - 00:00

Two poor sides meet in Asuncion with a need for three points.

Both these teams rely on organised, defensive football to glean results and as such this doesn't have much promise as an entertaining fixture.

Paraguay have managed to qualify for World Cups through having a few exceptional individuals but with these players on the way out, it is Peru who now resemble the Paraguay of old.

Their two banks of four sit deep and frustrate the opposition while - in theory at least - a front four of Claudio Pizarro, Jefferson Farfan, Jose Guerrero and Juan Vargas unlocks the defence.

However, getting that four on the pitch at the same time is a completely different matter, and in fact their performances were arguably better when Farfan and Pizarro were injured at the Copa America and Sergio Makarian could play 4-5-1.

Paraguay are 1.9420/21 to win, which is too slim considering they've lost their last five qualifiers. Peru are unbeaten in their last three and they will fancy their chances against a weakened Albirroja, pushing us towards the juicy price of 3.65n/a for a draw or just to laying the hosts.

Chile v Argentina - 01:05

Argentina went to the top of the qualification table with a convincing win over Uruguay in Mendoza on Friday.

Lionel Messi was on sensational form, scoring twice - as tipped here - with some able assistance from the also impressive Angel Di Maria and Sergio Aguero. The only change that Alejandro Sabella may decide on would be one forced by the injury to Marcos Rojo, where he'd bring Hugo Campagnaro in at left-back in a move that would barely weaken the side.

Chile, on the other hand, could well ring the changes as Claudio Borghi's job comes under increasing pressure. The former Colo Colo and Boca Juniors manager faces the country of his birth knowing that a defeat could well see his reign come to an end.

Faced with the difficult job of replacing Marcelo Bielsa in Santiago, Borghi has had to contend with player indiscipline off the field and underperformance on it, as well as the inevitable challenges of filling the hole left by a one-of-a-kind manager.

In late 2011 the Chileans were heavily beaten by Argentina and Uruguay, who both put four goals past Borghi's men, and they've now lost their last three games - conceding three goals in each. Defending seems to be a problem, and not even moving Juventus midfielder Arturo Vidal back there worked on Friday as Felipe Caicedo and Chucho Benitez ran riot.

The Roja's struggles haven't gone unnoticed by the markets and they are all the way out at 5.14/1 for a home win. The Albiceleste are 1.824/5 to pull off another important victory and get away at the top, which seems to represent all the value.

After his performance on Friday night, Messi is once again the favourite to find the net at 1.855/6, or 3.55n/a to bag a brace. Di Maria's impressive performance the other night puts him into goalscoring consideration, and with Chile's 3-4-1-2 system he may find himself in plenty of space. He is 3.55/2 to score anytime.

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