US Racing Preview: E.P. Taylor-made for Siyouma

Siyouma (centre) can land the E.P. Taylor Stakes.
There is a strong foreign contingent at Woodbine on Sunday when the Toronto track hosts three G1 races, the Pattison Canadian International, the E.P. Taylor Stakes and the Nearctic Stakes, in addition to the G3 Durham Cup, and the chances are that at least two of the three main prizes will be wending their way back to Europe.
First up of the G1 events is the Nearctic over six furlongs on turf and due off at 15:04 local time, 20:04 BST. As we have mentioned elsewhere in our Fact Or Fiction piece, the Europeans look to have missed a trick here.
Perhaps it's a legacy of the defeat of hot favourite Bated Breath last year as the European challenge this year is distinctly third rate by comparison with the best of the challengers Fire Lily well down any list of the best six-furlong turf performers in Europe this season. And it's not as if the home defence measures up to the standard set last year by Regally Ready who had shown very smart form previously and subsequently went on to win the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - the pick of the home trained contingent are Big Band Sound and Hammers Terror who are rated 118 and 114 respectively compared with Fire Lily's 115 but are both unproven at six furlongs in good company.
Big Band Sound won over five at Tampa in January but has more recently been campaigned at seven furlongs and a mile whereas Hammers Terror's turf wins this year have both come at a mile. Conditions should suit Fire Lily with plenty of rain forecast in the Woodbine area over the weekend but she's hardly insuperable and the race doesn't appeal as a betting medium.
The E.P. Taylor Stakes (16:38. 21:38 BST) for fillies and mares over a mile and a quarter has a more credible home candidate in Dream Peace who was a very close third in a photo finish to this race last year when trained by Robert Collet and ran right up to her best for new trainer Chad Brown at Belmont last time when third to Nahrain in the Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont.
She shouldn't be far away again but there are better fillies in the line-up this year than Miss Kneller who won it last year or Nahrain with the European-trained duo of Princess Highway and Siyouma chief amongst them. Princess Highway won the Ribblesdale at Ascot in superlative fashion from The Fugue but hasn't quite repeated that form since in either the Irish Oaks or the Prix Vermeille. She might be vulnerable again dropped to a mile and a quarter and in the circumstances Siyouma makes more appeal.
Her best performance so far, in the Sun Chariot at Newmarket last time, came at a mile but her close fifth before that behind Snow Fairy and Izzi Top in a good renewal of the Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville shows she's just as effective at this trip and she looks to be peaking at the right time. Barefoot Lady will probably come in for a fair bit of local support having won the G2 Canadian Stakes here last month but that illustrated more the frail nature of the field she beat than anything else and though she'll almost certainly give her running it will be a surprise if she doesn't find a couple too good.
The North Americans provide around half the runners for the Canadian International at 17:44 (22:44 BST) looking to halt a recent European run of success but with the top North American mile-and-a-half turf performer Point of Entry absent in waiting for the Breeders' Cup the home defence looks a weak one - Air Support and Forte Dei Marmi have both run to a Timeform rating of 116 this year (though Prince Will I Am was capable of 120 in 2011) but that is a figure nearly all the Europeans are capable of bettering at their best.
Joshua Tree has a good record in this event having won it in 2010 when trained by Aidan O'Brien and finished second last year for current connections but the fact he was stepped up to a mile and seven furlongs for the Prix Kergorlay at Deauville in the August suggests he's seen more as a stayer now he's another year older and whether he quite possesses the basic speed now for a race of this quality over this trip remains to be seen.
Wigmore Hall boasts an unbeaten record over C&D having won the last two runnings of the Northern Dancer Turf but he only had a length or so to spare over Forte Dei Marmi last month, hasn't generally been at his best this season and wouldn't want much more rain. Dandino looked back to his best when showing a good turn of foot after travelling well to win the September Stakes at Kempton last month and should go well but the pick on the ratings look to be Imperial Monarch and Reliable Man.
The latter has shown 3lb better form by our reckoning by dint of his two midsummer fourths at Ascot behind So You Think in the Prince of Wales's and Danedream in the King George but Imperial Monarch is open to more improvement, having had just the four runs and if ground conditions in Toronto do deteriorate he won't be at all inconvenienced. He might well be coming here undefeated this season had he not so much trouble in running in the Prix du Jockey Club and he is just preferred.
The Durham Cup at 14:31 (19:31 BST) looks a race to watch rather than bet in seeing as the nine-furlong trip on potentially soft turf will be a new experience for nearly all the field. The progressive Delegation is best in on Timeform ratings but not by so much to think, as with any of his rivals, he's worth backing with so much still to prove.
Recommended Bet
1pt win SIYOUMA in the E.P. Taylor Stakes