US Politics Betting: Obama must stop the rot in second debate

Time to shape up, Barack

After a lacklustre performance in the first debate Barack Obama's odds have been lengthening by the day as the US Presidential election enters the final stretch. Paul Krishnamurty looks forward to Tuesday's second TV debate...

Momentum in politics is a precious commodity, that can be gained or surrendered very quickly, for even the most superficial reasons. With just 23 days left before America elects it's next President, Barack Obama suddenly finds himself in urgent need of such a gamechanger and banking heavily on a strong performance in Tuesday's debate in New York.

It seems incredible to think that, just a fortnight ago, Obama was regarded a near-certainty, trading at just 1.21/5 while his opponent's campaign lurched from one disaster to another. Those odds, however, have drifted to 1.558/15 since Obama's poor showing in the first TV debate and the trajectory of this week's polls suggests he may not even retain favouritism for much longer.

Having trailed in every poll bar one during September, Romney has led in five of the last six, albeit by tiny margins. More significantly, Obama's lead in the key swing states is no longer assured. Florida is now clearly leaning towards Romney, who has shortened from 4.57/2 to 1.75/7 to win the Sunshine State. He is also becoming more competitive in arguably the most pivotal state of all, Ohio, shortening to 2.89/5 from 8.615/2 a fortnight ago.

Obama simply cannot afford another poor performance on Tuesday, and will surely be more combative. Joe Biden showed him the way during last week's VP debate, aggressively taking the fight to his opponent Paul Ryan over issues that genuinely divide the two parties, such as taxes and cuts to Medicare. Biden's line about Romney's infamous 47% comments, pointing out that the challenger was smearing 'people like my mum and dad', was a winner. The VP debate was never going to produce a gamechanger because far fewer watched it, but if Obama can hammer home this message it may well revive his campaign.

Democrats were bemused by Obama's unwillingness to attack Romney's weaknesses during the first debate, but while there is no doubt the strategy backfired, the President's plan was not entirely wrong-headed. Had he turned up in Colorado, well ahead in the polls, and spent two hours on the attack, voters and pundits may well have turned off while Republicans would have attacked it as divisive.

Obama has invested a lot of political capital trying to appear bipartisan and presidential, presenting himself as the 'adult in the room' while Congress bickered over the budget. Over the long-term that strategy has worked, as illustrated by good personal and likeability ratings. It may, at least, have created the space to go into attack mode for the rest of the campaign.

However, while we must surely expect a better performance from Obama this time, it is doubtful that the debate will produce any killer blows or even a decisive victory. Historically, TV debates have made little difference to elections and given Romney has repeatedly proved adept at this format, he's unlikely to give much away.

By now, both men know exactly what to expect from the other and how to counter it, whilst staying on message. Nonetheless, even a draw would probably help Obama. It would at least stop the rot and allow the campaign narrative to return to the Democrats' preferred territory - issues.