The Punters In-Play Blog: Can Wiesberger buck the trend?

Bernd Wiesberger – third round leader in Portugal but can he convert?

Steve's pre-event pick, Bernd Wiesberger, takes a one-stroke lead into today's final round at the Portugal Masters but four of the first five renewals went to someone from off the pace so what's the plan?

18:35 - October 14, 2012

I've decided to lay the front three in the market at the Frys.com Open -leader, John Mallinger at 2.8815/8, second placed Jonas Blixt at 4.3100/30 and Charles Howell III, currently third, at 7.87/1. There are plenty of players five and six off Mallinger's lead and I can see one or two of them putting in a strong challenge.

10:45 - October 14, 2012

Having entered the weekend with a live chance in each event, I'm happy enough to go into Sunday with just one. Poor Billy Horschel struggled badly in round three of the Frys.com Open and after shooting a two over par 73 he trails third round leader John Mallinger by seven shots and is surely out of it now but Bernd Wiesberger did me proud at the Portugal Masters...

Wiesberger started the third round three behind halfway leader Ross Fisher and he played some scruffy stuff early on, doing well to get to the 8th tee without a bogey on his card but after that he found form in fine style, birdying six out of the next seven holes. He missed two makeable birdie chances on the last two holes but he still goes into today's final round with a one stroke lead over Fisher and a four stroke lead over the rest.

I've already layed enough back to cover the weeks stakes, at an average of 2.47/5, and I plan to get a bit more out of him, should he go odds-on. As highlighted in my preview, third round leaders don't have a particularly good record here, with Alvaro Quiros the only one to win in the first five years of the event. Richard Green came from seven back two years ago so I wouldn't put anyone off taking a chance on one or two at big odds this morning. If Wiesberger and Fisher were to have off days, and that's perfectly feasible, the tournament would be blown wide open.

I'm going to see how Portugal pans out before committing to any further involvement in the Frys.com Open. Mallinger is looking for his first win and could get nervous but who's there to take advantage if he does? Jonas Blixt, currently in second place and two back, was poor in the mix again last week and I wouldn't want to back him. Charles Howell III and Jason Kokrak are a further stroke back and tied for third but they don't inspire me either. Howell is notoriously hopeless in-contention and big-hitting Kokrak has never been in this loftier position on a PGA Tour Sunday leaderboard before, so heaven knows how he'll handle it. If I find inspiration from somewhere I'll post again but I may just take the night off and let it roll.

10:10 - October 13, 2012

There's a very similar feel about both events this morning. On either side of the Atlantic one of my picks led after yesterday's morning sessions but in both events, an afternoon starter passed them with ease. At the Portugal Masters, pre-event pick, Bernd Wiesberger, shot an impressive six under par 65 and now sits alongside Stephen Gallacher in second place, three behind halfway leader, Ross Fisher. And at the Frys.com Open, Billy Horschel, backed before the off at 75.074/1, enters the weekend tied for second with Jhonattan Vegas but trails John Mallinger by four.

Obviously, on -10, with a three-shot lead, Ross Fisher is a fairly warm order in Portugal but he's not for me. There's a slight doubt about his fitness, after he slipped on the 1st tee yesterday and injured his left foot but that isn't what puts me off. He hasn't won for over two years and I've never really felt he's particularly comfortable in-contention. If he goes on to win so be it, but I can't back him at just 3.412/5.

It's interesting to see the affect the recent Ryder Cup has had on the field in Portugal. The hero of the hour in Medinah, Martin Kaymer, has missed the cut this week and Francesco Molinari, who's half a point gained against Tiger Woods secured the win, just scraped in for the weekend with a lengthy par save on the 18th. Yet look who's contending for the title. ..A shot behind Gallacher and Wiesberger, alongside Freddie Andersson-Hed on -6, is Padraig Harrington, Ross Fisher's partner at Celtic Manor two years ago. Missing out on the Ryder Cup this time around seems to have galvanised both.

I was really tempted by Pod - he's bombing it off the tee and putting well but I'm going to leave him for now and see how today develops. There's still room for improvement with my man Wiesberger and I quite fancy his chances (famous last words). I thought this course would suit him well and it clearly does because despite ranking 110th for Driving Accuracy and 52nd for Putting Average so far, he's bang there. I'm hopeful that he can get the putter working a bit better and that he can get back on terms with Fisher today but I'll have an eye on Pod.

I'm really cross with myself for not backing Mallinger at the Frys.com Open. Knowing that the back nine offers up some really good birdie opportunities, I was sorely tempted once he'd got through the first eight holes in three under par but all I did was watch his price shorten up all night and when he eagled the 15th I went to bed, kicking myself all the way up the stairs (that's not strictly true by the way, I live in a bungalow).

Anyway, boat missed with Malinger, so what now? I've had a look at the record of those that have held a four-stroke lead at halfway on the PGA Tour and maybe missing out on Mallinger is no bad thing - the last four have all been beaten. And in addition, Spencer Levin held a five-stroke halfway lead at the Phoenix Open in February and he too got beat.

I'm happy with Billy for now so I'm going to leave it alone. Nicolas Colsaerts is seen as the leader's biggest threat but he just doesn't win often enough for my liking and he's always too short. He's already been matched this week at 2.829/5, after a fast start yesterday that he let slip.

11:05 - October 12, 2012

The forecast suggested that the wind would get up in the afternoon on day one of the Portugal Masters and it did. Playing in the much trickier conditions, on average, the afternoon starters shot over two shots more than those that teed it up in the morning, but I don't expect that to level out today. If anything, the forecast points to a weakening wind early on this afternoon so the advantage yesterday's morning starters have already enjoyed may yet be increased.

My pre-event picks haven't started brilliantly but only Gary Boyd was out of it after day one and I haven't got involved in-running as yet. I wanted to wait until this afternoon but if Padraig Harrington doesn't slow up I could be in trouble! He's already five under-par for the day but one of my men, Berndt Wiesberger, is keeping tabs, he's currently just two behind Pod.

Over in the states, at the Frys.com Open, Australian left-hander Nick O'Hern emerged from the wilderness to shoot a nine-under par 62 to lead big bombers Jhonattan Vegas and Nicolas Colsaerts and Monday qualifier Derek Ernst.

One of my picks, Billy Horschel, did ok, shooting four under-par but promising youngster Luke Guthrie had a shocking day, shooting two over!

I'm treating this one with plenty of caution too so far but I have had one small wager. I confess, I know nothing about brand new pro, 22-year-old Derek Ernst, but at around 240.00239/1, sitting alongside the new favourite, Colsaerts, there isn't an awful lot of downside so I've chucked a few speculative pounds his way.

Portugal Masters pre-event picks
George Coetzee @ 26.025/1
Thomas Bjorn @ 50.049/1
Bernd Wiesberger @ 65.064/1 - Layed back @ an average of 2.47/5
Lee Slattery @ 130.0129/1
Ricardo Gonzalez @ 160.0159/1
Kristoffer Broberg @ 200.0199/1
Gary Boyd @ 300.0299/1

Frys.com Open pre-event picks
Luke Guthrie @ 46.045/1
Billy Horschel @ 75.074/1

In-Play pick
Derek Ernst @ an average of 240.0239/1