The Punters De-Brief: Lowrys late lunge scoops the prize

Shane Lowry with the Portugal Masters trophy
Our man's had a disappointing Sunday on both sides of the Atlantic but profits were made and lessons have been learnt. Read Steve's final thoughts on last week's events here...
The Portugal Masters had looked a two-man race between my man, Bernd Wiesberger and England's Ross Fisher, but it was one of Paul Krishnamurty's four, Shane Lowry, that scooped the prize, with a scintillating Sunday 66. Whilst in the states, Jonas Blixt held his nerve and a plethora of challengers at bay to win his first PGA Tour title at the Frys.com Open.
My Bets
It's been another profitable week but I can't say I feel particularly chuffed about it. Yesterday was a really disappointing day.
When Bernd Wiesberger, backed before the off at 65.064/1, found the fairway on the 7th hole (the hardest on the course), with a two-stroke lead intact, he hit a low of 1.635/8 and I could not have been more confident of a cracking result. The Austrian has already won twice this year and on each occasion he displayed no nerves whatsoever. I'd layed some more of my wager off at 1.9420/21 and again at 1.824/5 but I wasn't going to give anymore away. I was really struggling to envisage defeat.
To cut a long and painful story short, he hit a poor iron on the 7th to make bogey before driving in to the water on the 11th - the very hole eventual winner Lowry had holed out from the fairway on for eagle. I still can't decide whether nerves were the issue or whether he just didn't put well enough to win. He certainly looked frustrated at times and it was understandable. I'd really fancied him to win and I imagine he felt the same way, but it just wasn't to be.
As detailed in the In-Play Blog, I started out on Sunday evening, laying eventual winner, Blixt, third round leader John Mallinger and Charles Howell III and if I'd have left it at that I'd have wiped out all the profits from my Wiesberger trades, but fortunately I didn't...
It was a manic evening, with lots of contenders and I was able to get a few more in the book. I was able to lay Vijay Singh at just 4.67/2, Jason Kokrak and Alexandre Rocha at below 6.05/1 and Tim Petrovic at 4.03/1. As the law of sod dictates, Blixt was, by some margin, the worst result (Petrovic would have been a cracker) but as I'd layed so many at such short odds, I won a few pounds.
It wasn't a bad week at all but with a few slight twists of fortune it could have been a really good one so I couldn't help but feel a bit flat after all the hard work last night.
Players to swerve
Ross Fisher hit 1.364/11 in-running after birdying the par 4 14th hole. He'd hit a quite brilliant tee-shot to find the green before two-putting for birdie but after that the nerves kicked in. He failed to birdie the short 15th or the par 5 17th and he made scruffy bogeys at the 16th and 18th. Like Wiesberger, he'll be feeling really disappointed by his finish but unlike Wiesberger, this wasn't a one-off. He's a multiple winner and there's no doubt he'll win again but he converts fewer chances than he perhaps should and he's one to treat with a degree of caution.
There's no doubt in my mind what my worse move was this week - backing tour maiden George Coetzee at just 26.025/1. He will win one eventually but Friday's pathetic 73 put pay to his chances here. He managed to play well again over the weekend and ended the week tied for 6th but it was a typical George effort. Somewhere over the four days there's a poor spell and he's probably best just left alone - especially at such restrictive pre-event odds.
What have we learnt?
Always expect the unexpected. As already detailed, Wiesberger's poor finish was completely unforeseen and Blixt's rock-solid one was a bit of a surprise too. A few weeks ago I'd witnessed Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano play appallingly on Sunday at the KLM Open (when I'd backed him) only to see him turn up the following week and deny me a bumper win on Garth Mulroy in Italy.
It wasn't quite as stark as Gonzo's transformation, but Blixt was far from convincing in the mix at last week's JT Shriners Open and that was one of the reasons I wanted to take him on yesterday. When he birdied the first two holes last night I thought I was in trouble. When he bogeyed the next two I thought I'd got it right, but he deserves every credit after that and he finished the job off superbly in the end. Will he be rock-solid next time? Probably not, expect the unexpected.
At the Portugal Masters, third round leaders now have a very poor record and off the pace winners are beginning to look the norm. Alvaro Quiros is the only 54-hole leader to win, the last two winners have been four back with a round to go and 2010 winner, Richard Green, trailed by seven. Laying the leaders could be the way to go next year, as I fancy it could also be across the pond...
There were three 62's and a pair of 63's at this week's Frys.com Open so low scores are definitely available. When interviewed following his final round 64, Tim Petrovic revealed that he hadn't even considered winning before play began but he came within a whisker of a playoff so someone winning from miles back is perfectly possible. Laying the third round leaders and then trading in-running proved profitable last night, despite one of my original lays winning, and with a slight change of fortune I could have had a belting good night. I'll be looking at the state of play after the third round again next year and if the leaders look vulnerable I'll adopt the same tactics again.
We're off down-under on the Race to Dubai this week with the Perth International, whilst on the PGA Tour, the Fall Series heads to Georgia for the McGladrey Classic. I'll be back tomorrow or first thing Wednesday with my previews.