Hodgson's side need to pass the ball quickly against Poland
Michael Cox previews England's toughest match of World Cup 2014 qualifying so far, a trip to Warsaw on Tuesday night.
Poland v England, ITV1, 8:00pm.
Match Odds: Poland 4.67/2, England 2.01/1, The Draw 3.55n/a.
After a gentle warm-up against San Marino on Friday night, this away trip to Poland will be a significantly tougher test of Roy Hodgson's tactics. England currently top Group H, although they've played one more game than their three major rivals - Poland, Ukraine and Montenegro.
In theory, this game might suit Hodgson's strategy more than a home fixture against minnows - his defensive, two-banks-of-four approach is better when his the opposition dominate the game. However, England's counter-attacking versus quality opposition hasn't been particularly impressive under Hodgson, with transitions from defence to attack slow, not giving the attackers the opportunity to influence the game. There needs to be a significant improvement here.
Of course, it's not certain that Poland will look to dominate. At Euro 2012 they were a broadly defensive side, and although Waldemar Fornalik has evolved the side and brought in some younger players, any long spells of possession will probably be down to England's negativity than their own intentions.
Poland generally excel down the right-hand side with the Dortmund combination of Lukasz Piszczek and Jakub Blaszczkowski, but the latter - Poland's captain - is out injured, forcing them to attack in a different manner. Their chief playmaker will be Bordeaux's Ludovic Obraniak, although Hodgson will struggle to make plans for him because he's a versatile player that could start on either wing, or in close support of striker Robert Lewandowski, another Dortmund man.
It's most likely Obraniak will start centrally (although this is dependent on the 4-2-3-1 being used) but he tends to drift into the channels, creating overloads with one of the wingers and getting into crossing positions. Lewandowski thrives on crosses, of course, and with England lacking an established leader at the back, this is Poland's best chance of getting the breakthrough. Expect Hodgson to ask his wide players to play a very defensive-minded job to protect the full-backs.
The alternative for Fornalik is to play a more negative 4-1-4-1 system, which would give Poland an extra holding player - an area of the pitch they're well-stocked in, especially thanks to the emergence of Grzegorz Krychowiak - and would make Under 2.5 goals a more promising bet.
An attacking move would be to start promising young winger Pawel Wszolek, who switched flanks with Adrian Mierzejewski to good effect on debut Friday's friendly victory over South Africa. Fornalik will probably decide against risking him in such a big game against a high calibre of opposition, but he could be a useful option from the bench.
The San Marino match might prove good preparation for England - against an opposition packing the centre of midfield, they had to spread the play wide, get their full-backs forward and try to attack from wide positions. Poland are likely to defend in a similar style, making it imperative that England's central midfielders provide unfussy, sensible, quick passing towards the flanks. If Steven Gerrard is to return in the centre of the pitch, it would make sense to retain Michael Carrick, rather than Tom Cleverley, for the sake of balance and defensive discipline.
Upfront the combination of Wayne Rooney and Danny Welbeck got amongst the goals on Friday night and should start again here. Rooney might find his zone occupied solidly by various Poland players, and I think Welbeck's running into the channels makes him the better shout to score first, at 10.09/1.
It's a tricky away test, but while Poland are a side in transition, England are solid unit. I think Hodgson's side have got enough to win this match - back them at 2.01/1 or higher.
Recommended bets:
Back Danny Welbeck to score first at 10.09/1
Back England to win at 2.01/1
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