Stockholm Open Betting: Take a chance on Nieminen

Sean Calvert likes Jarkko Nieminen's chances at a big price

The ATP Tour heads back to Europe this week and Sean Calvert has selected an outsider in Stockholm who's worth backing at a big price...

The Asian swing of the ATP Tour is done and dusted and its climax was an exciting final in Shanghai that was somehow won by Novak Djokovic.

After performing one of the most brutal destructions of a Head tennis racquet that has been seen in some time Djokovic looked on his way to a straight sets defeat to Andy Murray, but the Serb saved five match points to force a decider.

I was quite happy with a final set as it brought my recommended bet of the day in, but Murray will be disappointed to lose to his closest rival of the moment in that fashion.

My back to lay portfolio worked out reasonably well in Shanghai last week with Tommy Haas and Tomas Berdych making the quarters and semis respectively before both lost to Djokovic.

Both players were available to lay at much lower than their original prices, but Richard Gasquet was disappointing in an early loss to Radek Stepanek.

The tour moves indoors for the remainder of the season, starting this week with ATP 250 events in Moscow, Vienna and Stockholm and the one I'm concentrating on this week is the latter tournament.

The If Stockholm Open has a long tradition on the tour and was won last year by Gael Monfils, who returns to defend his title despite being plagued by knee problems.

I got in touch with the tournament to ask them about the speed of the courts in Stockholm this week, as it's really been guesswork lately as to how quick the surfaces will play on the tour.

They told me that it's a medium paced court (which means slowish) but they did say that the Centre Court is playing slightly quicker than last year.

An impressive field has assembled in Sweden for this tournament including Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Berdych, and Nico Almagro, but I would certainly question the desire of these three and wouldn't be putting too much faith in them at this time of the year.

I don't buy into the World Tour Finals ranking points 'race' theory, as Tsonga and Berdych are pretty much certain to make it and I honestly don't see Almagro being interested, as his indoor record is pretty awful.

It would be a good pay day for him of course, but Nico's record at this time of the year is poor and others are preferred this week.

The draw has given Tsonga the best chance of the fancied runners as he has been paired with Feliciano Lopez, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Florian Mayer, David Goffin and Marcos Baghdatis in a fairly weak-looking half of the draw.

Berdych's half is tougher, with Monfils, Almagro, Mikhail Youzhny, Kevin Anderson, Jarkko Nieminen and Lleyton Hewitt all packed into that section of the draw.

And as I doubt the intentions of the top players this week it might pay to invest in a back to lay wager on Nieminen, who loves it here and has the indoor conditions that suit his game.

The Finn is a three-time finalist in Stockholm, including last year, and with points to protect this year he should give you a run for your money on a back to lay basis at around 41n/a.

His last six appearances here have resulted in two finals, two semi finals and two quarter finals, and as his quarter this time has only Almagro to perhaps fear, Jarkko looks good for another semi final at least.

He reached the semi finals in his most recent indoor tournament in Bangkok a few weeks ago and after two predictable first round losses on outdoor hard since he'll be fresh for another tilt at the Stockholm title.

Berdych is the 2.9015/8 favourite for this, but his quarter looks the toughest with Youzhny and Monfils in there and I'd rather take a chance on Nieminen at big odds than one of the shorter priced players whose fitness and desire have to be questioned at this stage of the season.

Recommended Bet
Back Nieminen at 41n/a