Lee Dixon: Draw would be ok for England in Poland

Roy Hodgson is set to make changes to his side

Lee Dixon reflects on England's win over San Marino and selects his best bets for Wednesday's rearranged World Cup qualifier against Poland. Our man reckons that Roy Hodgson's men might struggle to take three points...

*Tuesday's game between Poland and England was postponed until Wednesday afternoon due to a waterlogged pitch

England gave an adequate performance in their 5-0 win over San Marino at Wembley. It's such a strange experience, playing against a team of part-timers and the truth is that international managers learn more about their squad in training. The goals took a while to come and I was disappointed not to land my bet on a hat-trick being scored - especially as Wayne Rooney and Danny Welbeck both managed braces - but 5-0 is a fine result. I don't anticipate England's World Cup qualification coming down to goal difference.

Now we move on to the real contest. England haven't lost in Poland for 30 years but games there are never easy. They tend to be tight, drawn or settled by single goals, like England's 2-1 victory in 2005. Having played for England in Warsaw, I can tell you that the atmosphere is intimidating. The crowds are loud and partisan and, if you don't keep your wits about you, you can slip up.

Apart from Ashley Cole, who I expect to see back in the side on Tuesday, Roy Hodgson is likely to field a relatively inexperienced defence, but they should go to Warsaw full of confidence. I don't think that Poland offer an awful lot in attack. Robert Lewandowski is struggling for goals with only three in his last 12 appearances.

Inside 90 minutes, England are unbeaten in their last 15 competitive matches and Hodgson, who has been in charge for ten matches now, is yet to see his team lose. Waldemar Fornalik, meanwhile, has made an inauspicious start as Poland manager. It's his job to help the team move on from the humiliation of crashing out in the group stage when they hosted Euro 2012, but a defeat against Estonia, as well as a draw against Montenegro and scrappy win over Moldova, suggest he has a long way to go.

Steven Gerrard will captain the team after missing the San Marino match through suspension. In his absence it made sense for Wayne Rooney to lead the side and I think he is England's best long term option. Wayne turns 27 next week, he's maturing all the time and I'm reminded of how the captaincy proved to be the making of David Beckham at the same age. Rooney still has his impetuous moments (it's only a year, remember, since he was sent off in an important Euros qualifier against Montenegro) but he definitely boasts leadership qualities and he will be an automatic England pick for many years to come. Who was the best captain I played under? There's only one serious candidate but here's a clue: he lead both Arsenal and England and his name isn't David Seaman.

Rooney will probably play in a withdrawn role behind Danny Welbeck or Jermain Defoe. Personally, I'd play Welbeck because when you go away at international level it's sometimes necessary to hit long balls. You need players who will work the channels and run their socks off and Welbeck fits the bill.

This will be a tight match and I don't anticipate many goals. A draw would be fine for England and put them in a commanding position in the group. Hodgson knows his team are more than capable of taking all three points but, if he must settle for one, he won't be pulling his hair out. Odds of 1.9720/21 on an away win aren't bad and, while I think Poland are uninspired opposition, I have a feeling that this one will end in a draw 3.55n/a.

Of the last five matches that have been played between the two teams in Poland, four have produced less than three goals. My bet on under 5.5 goals came in against San Marino and I'm backing under 2.5 here at 1.758/11. Those odds aren't ideal but I think this is a pretty solid punt. I'll try under 1.5 at 3.185/40 too with correct score bets on 1-1 at 7.413/2 and even 0-0 at 9.89/1.

Recommended Bets

Back the draw @ 3.55n/a
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.758/11
Back under 1.5 goals @ 3.185/40
Back 1-1 @ 7.413/2
Back 0-0 @ 9.89/1

Betfair TV: Poland v England video preview

Dave Farrar hosts this exclusive World Cup qualifier video preview with guests Stewart Robson and Alan Thompson. How will Roy Hodgson's men perform when they meet Poland in Warsaw? Trader Alan thinks we should be looking at dutching the Correct Score markets. With the stats showing that in six of their last nine games, England have scored fewer than 2.5 goals, will you follow his lead? For more stats we also have Opta's Duncan Alexander and Michael Cox from Zonal Marking.