Caulfield Guineas Review: A hard-fought Guineas

Caulfield staged the Guineas on Saturday

Head of Timeform Australia Gary Crispe takes a look back at Saturday's big race.

First run in 1881, the group one Caulfield Guineas over 1600m is one of the signature races on the Australian racing calendar for three-year-olds, especially for colts, as many breeders regard it as a sire making race.

However in recent times the race has become known for upset results and post-race controversy.

In 1979 (Runaway Kid/Bold Diplomat) and 1987 (Marwong/Our Poetic Prince) the Guineas result was overturned on protest while in 2000, the original winner Skalato was subsequently disqualified after returning a positive swab.

Add to that upset results such as Wonderful World (2008), Econsul (2004), In Top Swing (2003) plus the tragic defeat of Bel Esprit (sire of Black Caviar) in 2002 and a common thread begins to emerge.

Saturday's renewal in some respects continued the trend of upset results with one of the shortest priced favourites in Guineas history Pierro being beaten by All Too Hard.

For some it was not a total surprise as the half brother to undefeated world champion sprinter Black Caviar has always shown promise and in fact did start favourite to beat Pierro in the G1 ATC Sires Produce Stakes at Randwick in April.

All Too Hard's form in three runs prior to Saturday was sound without seemingly offering a clue that he could turn over the hotpot. However leading trainer John Hawkes knows what it takes to win the Guineas having been successful with Lonhro in 2001 and just beaten with Paratroopers in 2005. After the colt's unlucky third against older horses in the G1 George Main Stakes last time out he decided to do the "big sister act" and use a barrier blanket on All Too Hard to improve his barrier manners.

The plan worked well with All Too Hard jumping on terms but as the race unfolded jockey Dwayne Dunn found himself going back to near last as the early tempo was ramped up in the lead - a tactic that eventually played into Dunn's hands.

An analysis of how the race was run shows a faster than optimum early speed that clearly put some runners under pressure and out of their comfort zone, about three lengths faster than optimum or around 0.1m/s faster. That may not sound much but it was sufficient to change the dynamics of the race and in particular the previous relative racing patterns of Pierro and All Too Hard compared to the last two times they have met.

While Pierro was travelling sweetly on the hot pace using vital energy reserves, his main rivals All Too Hard and Epaulette were biding their time. For a stride of two when Pierro surged clear turning for home it looked as if his unbeaten record would be maintained, however the early effort told having no answer for All Too Hard's late finish. The final sectional (36.44 seconds) for the race was the second slowest for the day, only French stayer Shahwardi running slower.

In assessing the merit of the race, a Timeform rating of 125 was easily justified for All Too Hard making the race right on the five year winning average. Historical analysis suggested a range of values between 124 and 130 with 125 being the mid-point of possible values.
At that level, the 2012 renewal rates slightly below some of the better past winners of the Guineas such as Weekend Hussler (126), Redoute's Choice (126) and Whobegotyou (126).

Pierro ran to 123 still four pounds short of his juvenile master Timeform rating of 127 while Epaulette who nows goes for a spell ran three pounds below his G1 Golden Rose 121 Timeform rating. The race was a triumph for trainer John Hawkes, All Too Hard celebrating his 100th group one success.

The Guineas is likely to play a part in the G1 Cox Plate in a fortnight with both All Too Hard and Pierro both on target for that race.
However while history shows three-year-olds can win the Cox Plate, the record of Guineas winners in the Cox Plate is very poor, the last being Red Anchor in 1984. Before him Surround 1976, Rajah Sahib 1968 and Star Affair 1965 are the only four to have achieved the feat since 1950.