Premier League: Only one run-in certainty for Leicester

Leicester have spent close to four straight months in last place

Leicester to finish bottom may be the most appealing Premier League bet available between now and May...

This isn't so much a tipping article as a public service announcement: Premier League bottom club Leicester are still available to back at 2.546/4 to finish the season in that position.

The Foxes have been glued to 20th place ever since being defeated by QPR at the end of November and are now three points adrift of the Hoops and at least six shy of everybody else.

Rather than bridging the gap, they have been falling further away, taking two points from the last available 24 and winning just twice in 24 matches since the bright start in which they beat Man United and held Arsenal to spark false hope of a successful campaign.

While their loyalty to Nigel Pearson, the manager who got them promoted from League One and the Championship, is both commendable and quite possibly the right course of action, it can easily be interpreted as a sign that they have accepted their fate.

If Leicester legend Gary Lineker is to be believed, they came very close to putting the entertainingly irritable tactician out of his misery in early February.

The fact that they haven't revisited that call since hints that they consider themselves to be beyond saving. Three of the four sides directly overhead have changed coaches, with Burnley the exception due to averaging over a point a game since matchday 11 and Sean Dyche's universal popularity.

There are a few factors in Leicester's favour, like playing six of their final nine fixtures at the King Power Stadium and facing the three teams directly above them. However, they didn't win the previous collision with any of those, drawing at home to Sunderland and Burnley and losing at QPR.

They also committed the ultimate error of failing to triumph or even score in the encounter that Pearson had unwisely afforded must-win billing to against his former employers Hull in their latest outing as hosts.

Burnley and QPR's point averages in the so-called six-pointers against fellow 17th-or-lower strugglers - 1.00 and 2.40 respectively - are far fiercer than the Foxes' 0.67, indicating that the gap at the bottom is more likely to widen than thin following those clashes.

It is also helpful to recognise that not every seemingly doomed club has a late rally. QPR solidified last place in 2012/13 by collecting two points from their closing nine games, much as Wolves hit the bottom on week 29 in 2011/12 then scrounged only three points from their remaining nine matches.

Recommended Bet: Back Leicester to finish bottom at 2.546/4

Premier League: Top-three finish looms for Man United

Marouane Fellaini has been the wind beneath Man United's wings

Michael Lintorn trusts Man United to build on their most productive eight days of the season with a top-three finish...

Nobody seems to take the statistic that Man United have been the best team in the Premier League for two-thirds of the season - from matchday 11 to 30 - too seriously, but few would deny that they have been the outstanding performers of the last two weekends.

They went into Mother's Day four points shy of Arsenal and a mere two and three points ahead of Liverpool and Tottenham, their next opponents, in the final Champions League place, offering both the chance to gazump a side who had just whimpered out of the FA Cup at home to the Gunners.

Spurs were gone in 34 minutes at Old Trafford as Marouane Fellaini, Michael Carrick and Wayne Rooney, three of the players who had maintained strong form even as those around them struggled, terrorised them in the opening period.

It was the first time that Louis van Gaal had been able to start Fellaini and Carrick together in the Premier League besides a six-match winning streak between November and December, and it is no coincidence that they have a flawless record in tandem.

The consensus after the Spurs massacre was that the Dutchman had finally found his ideal XI and the perfect shape to maximise their talents: a 4-1-4-1 with Daley Blind and Antonio Valencia at full back, Carrick, Fellaini and Ander Herrera in midfield and Ashley Young and Juan Mata flanking Rooney.

Unsurprisingly, they retained that line-up at Anfield and once again made a sensational start, passing with pace and proving hugely incisive to deservedly lead 1-0 at the break.

Man United then showed the predatory instinct to capitalise quickly on Steven Gerrard's ridiculous red card early in the second half, giving them some insurance when Liverpool inevitably rallied and got one back and meaning that they could even afford for Rooney to squander a penalty.

As a result of those two enormous victories, they are now five points clear of Liverpool and only one behind Arsenal in third and two shy of champions Man City in second, rendering their odds of 3.052/1 to deliver a podium finish very appealing.

Home figures have been superb all campaign - 12 wins in 14 since an opening-day wobble - and their away form is better now than at any prior stage under van Gaal: ten points from five games.

The Red Devils are still to face five bottom-half clubs who currently have a bit of distance over the relegation zone, which is arguably the dream formula for an end-of-term foe as they are inferior yet less motivated than those in the deepest danger.

The one thing that might deter punters from backing Man United is that they must play the three teams above them, but their record against top-five rivals to date is P5 W3 D1 L1 (the sole defeat coming with ten men), while those fixtures make it easier to gain ground on those ahead of them.

Recommended Bet: Back Man United to finish in the top three @ 3.052/1

Football Bet of the Day: Hatters to party with Chairboys

Let's Get It On: Gareth Ainsworth's Wycombe are in good scoring form

Tobias Gourlay believes Wycombe can help Luton start enjoying their football once more

Luton v Wycombe
Tuesday 19:45 (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Nancy 2 Auxerre 1 in France yesterday. Should have gone all out for that very big price after all, but we'll not beat ourselves up about it too much.

Today's game comes from England's Ligue 2.

Or Ligue 4. Either way, third-placed Wycome Wanderers will reach the dizzy heights of second with an eight-goal win at Luton Town this evening.

We'll put our necks on the line and say they're not going to get there. What we're really interested in is the Chairboys' recent record of scoring at least twice in 5/6 home and away, while conceding twice in 6/8.

After a long run of low scorers, six of their last seven - including 3/3 on the road - have delivered Over 2.5 Goals, which is a big outsider for tonight's game.

Sixth-placed Luton are in danger of missing the playoffs. They've lost 6/7 home and away, but it's worth noting that five of those defeats have come on the road.

At Kenilworth Road the Hatters have been much less maddening, scoring 10 goals in their last five, while conceding at least twice in 3/5.

Over a longer period they've scored in 14/15 and can help tonight's game upset the odds.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.588/5 in Luton v Wycombe

2015 P/L (1pt per bet)

Staked: 40pts
Returned: 42.83pts

P/L: +2.83pts

Premier League Crisis: Everton help to prove it's a myth

Everton overcame poor league form to impress in Europe

Michael Lintorn isn't buying into talk of the Premier League's demise, despite the mass evacuation from Europe...

Don't believe the quarter-final hype

Who decided that the number of clubs that a country carries into the last eight of the Champions League was the ultimate barometer of success anyway?

Why is it so much more significant than how many teams you steer into the round-of-16 - a measure on which England equalled Spain's three and were only topped by Germany's four, three of whom flopped in those double headers? Or number of winners, for which the figures over the last decade are Spain 4, England 3, Italy 2 and Germany 1? Spain are 1.774/5 to provide this season's victors.

Porto and Monaco contested the 2003/04 Champions League final. Guess how many Primeira Liga and Ligue 1 quarter-finalists there were a year earlier? None of course, and presumably anyone who lamented the death of Portuguese and French football that day signed up for a lifetime of ridicule.

Similarly, the campaign before Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund took over Wembley in 2013 was a miserable one for Bundesliga sides. Champions Dortmund ranked bottom in their group with four points, five fewer than Olympiacos in third, Bayer Leverkusen were destroyed 10-2 by Barcelona in the round-of-16 and Bayern Munich lost the final in their own ground to Chelsea.

Did the Blues' triumph mark an era of English domination? Not quite, Chelsea and Man City failed to clear their 2012/13 groups and Arsenal and Man United were punished by harsh round-of-16 draws, meaning that nobody got to the quarter-finals, albeit amidst less fanfare than this term.

Why is 2014/15 different than 2012/13?

So why is it a much bigger issue that English interest in the Champions League quarter-finals is as outsiders than it was two years ago? The statistical reason is that it is the first time since 1995 that the Premier League doesn't have a quarter-finalist in either that or the UEFA Cup/Europa League.

The obvious question to ask is when did the English press start caring how its clubs perform in the Europa League, a competition that it has traditionally gone out of its way to undermine?

If your European calibre is assessed by UEFA Cup/Europa League performance then the Premier League has been a nonentity for decades, even in the era when Liverpool, Man United and Chelsea took turns as champions of Europe, because it hasn't produced a tournament winner since 2001.

The Everton anomaly

And if Europa League showings really are what make a league great, what does Everton's run mean?

They have been seriously awful domestically this season. They haven't beaten any of the Premier League's top eight, are one of just two teams to have faced bottom club Leicester twice and not won and recently embarked on a sequence of eight away league losses in nine.

Yet that same side twice defeated Wolfsburg, the second-best team in the Bundesliga, and routed the closest Swiss challengers to Champions League round-of-16 participants FC Basel, Young Boys, 7-2 on aggregate, among other laudable continental accomplishments.

If the Premier League's 13th finest can inflict that kind of damage, maybe there's hope for the division after all...

Premier League on Betfair: 89/1 Mata is the main man as United defeat Liverpool

Has Juan Mata fired United into next season's Champions League?

Manchester United have done the double over Liverpool thanks to two-goal Mata and a helping hand from Steven Gerrard...

Manchester United struck a decisive blow in the Top Four battle with a 1-2 win at Anfield today but it will be Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard who will dominate the headlines.

The Anfield hero lasted 33 seconds of his final match against Liverpool's fiercest rivals after receiving a red card for stamping on United's Ander Herrera. That episode in the early minutes of the second half was just one of many notable moments in what was a captivating match.

Juan Mata was United's star, scoring a goal in each half to give his team a major boost in their attempt to finish in the qualifying positions for next season's Champions League. The Spaniard was backed at a high of 90.089/1 to score two or more goals.

United (59 points) now hold a five point advantage over Liverpool, and trail Arsenal by one and second-placed City by two. Next up for United is Aston Villa while Liverpool travel to London for another huge top-flight match, this time against Arsenal.

Louis van Gaal's men are 1.321/3 to finish top four while Liverpool trade at 3.7511/4.

League leaders Chelsea were strongly fancied to beat Hull in the latter kick-offs, and they were swiftly into their stride with a pair of goals in the first 10 minutes. That had punters backing the Blues at 1.011/100 to hold a halftime lead - cue a pair of goals for the home team.

A combative second half saw chances for both sides but predictably enough it was Chelsea who scored the game's fifth. They were backed at 3.45n/a for the win, while the 2-3 final score was backed at 60.059/1.

In the day's other game Everton inflicted another defeat on QPR, though they needed a late Aaron Lennon goal to seal the deal. The Toffees were backed at a high of 4.94/1. Rangers are 1.141/7 to go down.

Champions League draw throws up intriguing ties

Gareth and Cristiano are used to facing up against Atletico

The quarter-final draw for the Champions League has thrown up its usual array of heavyweight clashes and intriguing contests.

With five of the eight teams left in the competition having won a combined total of 23 European crowns, the draw was always going to include pairings steeped in European history.

This was evident when Madrid rivals Atletico and Real were drawn against each other in a repeat of last season's final.

On that occasion Real won 4-1 after extra-time against their local rivals with goals from Sergio Ramos, Gareth Bale, Marcelo and Cristiano Ronaldo helping secure Los Blancos their record 10th European crown.

Since then it is Diego Simeone's side who have had the edge when the two teams have met.

The Madrid giants have met six times already this campaign with the Rojiblancos having won four of those meetings and the other two ending in draws.

The most recent clash saw Simeone's side run out 4-0 winners in La Liga and despite finding themselves eight points behind their rivals domestically, Atletico may hold the psychological edge going into the first-leg clash at the Vicente Calderon.

The other Spanish side left in the competition is Barcelona and the La Liga leaders take on French champions Paris Saint-Germain in the last eight in a repeat of the meeting between the two sides at the same stage of the competition two years ago.

On that occasion the Catalan giants prevailed on away goals and it was an equally tight affair when the two met in the group stages of this year's competition, with PSG winning 3-2 in Paris and Barca prevailing 3-1 at the Camp Nou.

The Parisians, who will be without the suspended Zlatan Ibrahimovic for the first leg at the Parc des Princes, will be buoyed by their extra-time victory over Chelsea in the last round as they bid to repeat their exploits of the 1994/95 season when they knocked Barca out of the competition on their way to the semi-finals.

The third quarter-final pits two former champions against each other with Porto taking on Bayern Munich in a repeat of the 1987 final.

On that occasion the Portuguese side prevailed 2-1 in Vienna, but they go into this season's tie as outsiders against the five-times champions of Europe.

Pep Guardiola's German side have reached at least the semis in each of the previous three seasons and their defeat in the final 28 years ago is their only loss in 22 previous meetings with Portuguese opposition.

Both sides comfortably progressed to the last eight of this year's competition - at the expense of Shakhtar Donetsk and Basel respectively - but a much tighter affair is likely when they go head to head for a place in the final four.

The last of quarter-final match-up sees the remaining Italian team in this year's competition, Juventus, take on Ligue 1 side Monaco.

The two teams met at the semi-final stage of the tournament in 1998 with the Old Lady prevailing 6-4 on aggregate. Massimiliano Allegri's side have crept under radar on their run to the last eight of this year's competition.

The Italian champions were impressive during their last-16 clash with Borussia Dortmund, winning both legs in a 5-1 aggregate success, and will fancy their chances against Leonardo Jardim's side, who prevailed on away goals against Arsenal in the last round.

The French side made a slow start to the campaign domestically but have only lost one of their last 13 league matches in the league and will be hoping to continue their form against Juventus.

Monaco have history on their side having never lost a match against Italian opposition in Monte Carlo, but it could be a tough task for Les Rouges et Blancs to overcome the Old Lady over two legs.

Has Chelsea's penalty count been abnormally low?

Is this just more Jose Mourinho mind games?

Chelsea's claim, that they have been awarded an 'abnormally low' number of penalties this season, seems to carry some weight.

The league leaders, who spend much of their time attacking and in the opposition penalty box, have been given just two penalties in the Premier League this season. This compares rather unfavourably with two other sides in the top four, Arsenal and Manchester City, who both have had seven awarded.

This perceived unfairness has resulted in Chelsea publishing an article on their official website claiming that, with the side attacking more than the opposition and currently the second-highest scorers in the league, the figure of just two penalties awarded seems 'abnormally low'.

The website tries to limit this to solely a Premier League problem by citing the fact that the Blues have had five penalties in eight Champions League games.

The figure does appear low but there are some possible reasons for this.

Mind Games

With Sir Alex Ferguson having retired, Jose Mourinho is unrivalled in terms of mind games and everything he says has to be viewed with that in mind. He fully realises that raising the issue of his side being denied penalties will, whether consciously or not, be in the referee's thoughts in subsequent Premier League games. It should not sway them and probably won't but Mourinho will hope that by making an issue of it, if a Chelsea player goes down in the area, in a 50-50 decision, the attacker will get the benefit of the doubt.

Diving

Chelsea are not the only side to be guilty of gamesmanship as it is a problem throughout the Premier League. However, there is little doubt that Chelsea have been guilty of diving on occasions this season.

Earlier this season figures showed that Chelsea were responsible for over a quarter of the yellow cards that had been handed out in the Premier League for 'simulation'. If a side has a reputation, fairly or otherwise, for diving that is also a matter that, perhaps subconsciously, would be on the mind of a referee if a Chelsea player goes down in the area.

In Mitigation

Whatever the effects or otherwise of mind games and simulation, there is little doubt that some decisions this season have gone against Chelsea.

The Blues' two games against Southampton this season both saw decisions go in favour of the Saints with Chelsea having legitimate penalty shouts for challenges on Cesc Fabregas at St Mary's and then on Branislav Ivanovic in the return game at Stamford Bridge.

Numerous other incidents have been added to Mourinho's list of grievances, notably the recent home draw with Burnley when Chelsea were denied what appeared a clear penalty when one of the Burnley defenders handled inside the area.

So the statistics do show that Chelsea have been harshly treated this season and there have been a number of incidents in which the side could well have been awarded a penalty. However, there is always a margin of error in such decisions.

Though they have a case in some games this season, none of the decisions have been completely clear-cut. Penalty decisions rarely are and therefore suggestions of a conspiracy against the side are surely wide of the mark. Every team can point to numerous decisions that have gone against them during a season.

Chelsea have been awarded relatively few penalties so far this Premier League season, but while it may be 'abnormally low', there are no grand plans to destabilise Chelsea and favour the opposition. Mourinho's side are favourites to win this season's Premier League title and, if successful, will win it on merit.

They may have been awarded fewer penalties than normal and some decisions have not gone their way, but it is a statistical quirk rather than an organised campaign to deprive Chelsea of the title.