Germany v Algeria: Merciless Muller to crush the Desert Warriors' dreams

Thomas Muller has been Germany's most potent attacking threat

Algeria have done superbly to reach the World Cup's knockout stage for the first time in their history, but Kevin Hatchard says they'll be undone by a Germany side who can play better than they have so far...

Germany v Algeria
Monday June 30, 21:00
Live on ITV 1
Match Odds: Germany 1.3130/100, Algeria 13.012/1, the draw 6.05/1

Germany

Bundestrainer Jogi Low says his Germany team has delivered in terms of results, but admits there's room for improvement in terms of performances, and I agree with that assessment. Germany topped Group G with a 4-0 demolition of Portugal, a 2-2 draw against Ghana and a 1-0 win over USA. None of the performances were close to the maximum Germany can achieve, even the thrashing of Portugal, a scoreline skewed by the first-half sending-off of centre-back Pepe. Low says his players weren't aggressive enough against Ghana, and didn't make the most of their chances against USA.

Top-scorer Thomas Muller has led the way with a series of excellent performances, and having netted four goals in three games, he is a contender to win the Golden Boot award for the second World Cup running. He is now trading at 5.39/2, having been available at 36.035/1 a few days before the tournament started. Muller's relentless work ethic, dizzying movement and cool finishing (the winner against USA was stunning) have helped him make a massive impact. Low says Muller is now amongst the best players in the world, and you'd struggle to argue otherwise. Opta tell us his four goals at this tournament have come from just six shots, and he now has nine goals in World Cup Finals matches.

The support for Muller could improve. Mesut Ozil has buzzed around promisingly but is yet to score or create a goal, and Mario Gotze scored against Ghana but was somewhat surprisingly replaced by Lukas Podolski for the game against USA. Podolski picked up an injury against the Americans which will keep him out of this match. Podolski's half-time replacement Miroslav Klose caused USA plenty of problems in the air, and given Algeria's weakness against crosses and high balls in general, Low must be tempted to start the veteran for the first time.

The return of Bastian Schweinsteiger against USA gave the midfield a bit more drive, so Low has a conundrum there too. Skipper Philipp Lahm (who was superb against USA) and Toni Kroos have two of the three midfield slots, so the other will be taken by either Schweinsteiger or Sami Khedira, neither of whom are fully fit. The back four will once again be unchanged, despite left-back Benedikt Howedes emerging as a bit of a weak link, especially going forward.

Algeria

Algeria have reached the last 16 of the World Cup for the first time, and the North Africans have historical motivation for winning this game. At the 1982 World Cup, Algeria beat West Germany 2-1 in the group stage, but they were ultimately denied progress when the Germans played out a convenient 1-0 win over Austria (the "Disgrace of Gijon") which took both neighbours through.

Algeria led Belgium 1-0 with 20 minutes to go but lost 2-1, they were excellent going forward in a 4-2 win over South Korea, and then they fought back well from conceding an early goal to draw 1-1 with Russia. Instead of ordering his players to dig in and hope for the best, Algeria coach Vahid Halilhodzic has been happy to attack.

Lone striker Islam Slimani is a key player - he scored against both South Korea and Russia, as well as netting four goals in qualifying. Attacking midfielder Sofiane Feghouli is a real threat with the timing of his runs into the box, as anyone who's watched him play for Valenica will know, but he's also been prepared to tackle and break up play.

Algeria spread the goals around (their six goals were netted by five different players), but the concern against Germany will be their defence. They shipped five goals in the group stage, and they will have to be incredibly disciplined to combat Germany's swift interchanges in attack. Jogi Low has predicted that Algeria will be more defensive than they've been in previous matches, and will look to release their dangerous front four on the counter-attack.

Halilhodzic has few injury concerns, and the only change to his line-up could be in defence. Madjid Bougherra could be restored to the starting XI after he was omitted against Russia.

Match Odds

Although Algeria have battled hard and looked bright in attack at times, they are facing a superior side in Porto Alegre. Germany have better players in all departments, and I suspect their 2-2 draw with Ghana in the group stage got their World Cup wake-up call out of the way nice and early. All the talk in the German camp has been about avoiding complacency and showing Algeria respect, and I suspect they mean it. Germany are unbeaten, and capable of going up two or three more gears.

No-one should belittle the Desert Warriors' achievements, but they should be put into context. South Korea and Russia hugely underperformed, and Algeria took advantage. This is by far Algeria's biggest test, and I think it'll be the end of their adventure. The price of 1.331/3 for the German win looks fair, but it can be boosted by backing Germany -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9210/11.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The market expects goals, with Over 2.5 Goals trading at 1.664/6, and unders at 2.486/4. I understand why, as both teams have scored in every game so far. However, Germany do sometimes slip into a habit of passing sideways a lot when they dominate possession, and against USA they weren't quite as ruthless in attack as they should have been. My suspicion is that we will see goals, but 1.664/6 is too short to tempt me.

First Goalscorer

The odds on Muller to score at any time are a reasonable 1.8810/11, but I like the look of backing him to be First Goalscorer at 4.77/2. The Bayern Munich forward has scored the opening goal against both Portugal and USA, and he is Germany's most potent attacking weapon.

On the Algerian side of things, attacking focal point Islam Slimani is 11.5n/a, while the dangerous Sofiane Feghouli is a chunky 15.5n/a.

Recommended Bets

Back Thomas Muller to be First Goalscorer at 4.77/2
Back Germany -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9210/11

2014 World Cup P/L

Points Staked: 12

Points Returned: 15.91

P/L: +3.91 points

France v Nigeria: Another flying start from the French is your best route to profit

Karim Benzema will look to add to his three-goal tally

After a sensational 12 winners from 14 tips on the tournament so far, James Eastham picks out the smartest selections on Monday's quarter-final in Brasilia...

France v Nigeria
Monday 30 June, 17:00 BST
Live on BBC1

Match Odds
France 1.51/2, Nigeria 8.415/2, The Draw 4.67/2

Do France really deserve to be as short as 1.51/2 to win this game? I'm not so sure. They romped through their opening two games against Honduras (3-0) and Switzerland (5-2) but then lost momentum against Ecuador (0-0) in their final group match (admittedly with a weakened side), which has affected my impression of the team.

Les Bleus obviously deserve to be favourites to win this game in 90 minutes and will probably make it through to the quarter-finals, but it is easy to get carried away by the fact France are now a side that everyone seems to fancy, rather than focusing on the cold, hard facts.

Let's not forget that the Super Eagles kept consecutive clean sheets against Iran (0-0) and Bosnia ((1-0) and then gave a good account of themselves against Argentina (3-2 defeat) in a game where few people reckoned they had any hope of troubling Lionel Messi and co. I'm unwilling to oppose France - but I won't be backing them at 1.51/2, either.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Overs 1.9420/21, Unders 2.0421/20

When you look at France and Nigeria's results at the tournament so far, there is no clear goals pattern: France put three goals past Honduras while keeping a clean sheet and then thrashed Switzerland (5-2) but rounded off their group campaign with an unexpectedly tame goalless draw against Ecuador.

Nigeria kept things tight against Iran (0-0) and Bosnia (1-0) but livened up when they contributed far more than expected to an open encounter against Argentina (3-2).

So - will France defend stoutly, as they did against Honduras and Ecuador, or slacken at some point, as they did against Switzerland? Will Nigeria goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama and his back four produce a sound defensive performance, as they did against Iran and (to a lesser extent) Bosnia, or make mistakes, as they did against Argentina? The prices make Overs/Unders roughly a 50-50 call, which looks right. For me, this is a 'no bet' market.

Half Time

One of the features of France's opening two games was how positively and sharply they started both matches. In their first game against Honduras it took them until the 45th minute to take the lead thanks to a Karim Benzema penalty, but by then they had already hit the crossbar and come close to scoring on other occasions. Even more impressively they raced into a 3-0 half-time lead against Switzerland in their second game, only playing more cautiously in their final game against Ecuador when there was little at stake.

France will have gained a great deal of confidence from starting so impressively in those opening two games and will look to take control from the outset here. It's worth remembering as well that Nigeria conceded early (third minute) against Argentina and went in 2-1 down at half-time in that match. The odds-against price on France leading at the interval is just about worth taking.

To Score

When France faced Switzerland we flagged up Blaise Matuidi as an excellent bet at 8.615/2, and he duly delivered by finding the net with a fine left-foot finish.

Following that smart goal, and given that Matuidi has got into good scoring positions on several other occasions, Matuidi's price has shortened, but the 5.59/2 on him to find the net in this game is still tempting. If you're looking for a goalscorer bet on this game, Matuidi is the selection.

Cash Out Opportunity

If, like me, you fancy France to start strongly, then backing Over 2.5 Goals pre-kick-off might offer you a decent cash-out opportunity. An early goal (for either team) would see the odds on Over 2.5 Goals shorten significantly and then you may be able to lock in a profit from this market.

Best Bet
France Half Time @ 2.0811/10

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 14pts
Returned: 29.51pts
P/L: +15.51pts

The Big Four are all still there as Wimbledon heads into its second week

Roger Federer has cruised through without dropping a set so far in SW19

Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and of course Andy Murray. The big four are all still in play in the men's draw but in the ladies the top two are out. Alex Johnson rounds-up the latest from SW19.

Both the men's and women's draws look intriguing as Wimbledon prepares to enter its second week.

The men's defending champion Andy Murray is safely through to the fourth round, having been in impressive form on his return to SW19. He has beaten David Goffin, Blaz Rola and Roberto Bautista Agut all in straight sets and, in the round of 16, will face South African Kevin Anderson, the 20th seed who has never before gone beyond the third round at Wimbledon.

They will be joined in the last 16 by Novak Djokovic, last year's beaten finalist. The Serb has had a tricky first week, beating tough opponents in the shape of Andrey Golubev, Radek Stepanek and Gilles Simon.

The world number two survived a tumble in the third set of the Simon game and was forced to have a medical time-out, but recovered and, with a weekend's rest, will hope to be in peak condition to face Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in a potentially classic fourth-round encounter.

Grigor Dimitrov is the youngest player in the world top 20 and should break into the top 10 in the coming weeks. He came through a five-set thriller with Alexandr Dolgopolov on Friday night to make the second week for the first time at Wimbledon. He plays Leonardo Mayer on Monday for a place in the quarter finals.

Rafael Nadal booked his place in the fourth round thanks to his game with Mikhail Kukushkin being played under the Wimbledon centre court roof. Rain delayed play on the outside courts on Saturday, but Nadal was able to get his game completed and, after again dropping the first set, fought back to win in four. He next plays Nick Kyrgios who beat Richard Gasquet earlier in the tournament.

Roger Federer was another to play under the centre court roof on Saturday night and cruised to a straight sets win over Santiago Giraldo. The 17-time Grand Slam winner has been in good form, not having dropped a set so far this Wimbledon, and next faces Tommy Robredo after the Spaniard came through a five-set match with last year's semi-finalist Jerzy Janowicz.

However, though Nadal and Federer completed their matches on Saturday others, including Stan Wawrinka, Feliciano Lopez and John Isner did not get onto court and Wimbledon organisers have decided, to be fair to all the players, to hold the fourth round matches in the bottom half of the draw back until Tuesday. This means that Federer and Nadal could play matches on both Tuesday and Wednesday, while Wawrinka faces the prospect of five matches in seven days if he is to take the title.

In the women's draw the top two seeds are already out, both Serena Williams and Li Na leaving the tournament early. The American world number one was beaten in three sets by French ace Alize Cornet. It was her earliest Wimbledon exit since 2005 and, combines with early exits at the two previous Grand Slams this season.

Cornet will face Eugenie Bouchard on Monday; the Canadian coming through the third round in straight sets against Andrea Petkovic. At just 20, Bouchard, alongside Simona Halep, represents the younger generation set to dominate the game in the future. She reached the semi-finals at both the Australian and the French Opens earlier this year and, a similar run at Wimbledon would demonstrate she has the all-court game required to win Grand Slams in the future.

Maria Sharapova continues to progress well, reaching the fourth round without having dropped a set so far this Wimbledon. She faces Angelique Kerber in the fourth round and could meet Bouchard in the last eight.

Simona Halep, Agnieszka Radwanska, Petra Kvitova and Caroline Wozniacki all completed third round wins and will play fourth round matches on Monday for a place in the quarter finals.

However, Sabine Lisicki still has a third round match to complete. She won the first set against Ana Ivanovic but bad light suspended play and the players will return on Monday. Madison Keys and Yaroslava Shvedova also have a third round match to complete with Shvedova a set up and the players about to start a second set tie-break.

World Cup Opta Stats: Germany v Algeria

Will Germany be celebrating after their match with Algeria?

Algeria have caused a World Cup shock by reaching the knockout stages but now face the might of Germany. Opta are on hand with all the vital statistics.

Germany have lost both of their previous meetings with Algeria in all competitions, scoring once and conceding four times. Algeria are 8.07/1 to qualify.

Their most notable meeting came in the 1982 World Cup Group Stage when Algeria beat West Germany 2-1. Algeria are 13.012/1 to win within 90 minutes.

That remains Algeria's only victory over a European opponent at the World Cup, drawing three and losing four since then. Germany are 1.3130/100 to win the game in normal time.

Germany have reached the semi-finals of the last three World Cups. No nation has ever made the last four in four successive tournaments. The Germans are 1.738/11 to create history by reaching the last four.

Thomas Mller has scored nine goals in nine World Cup appearances, including four in three so far in 2014. He is 1.855/6 to score.

Mller has a shot conversion rate of 66.7% so far in the tournament, having scored four times from six shots. The Bayern Munich attacker is 4.77/2 to open the scoring.

Algeria's six goals have been scored by five different players. Only Colombia (6) had more scorers during the group stages of the World Cup than Algeria. Over 2.5 goals is 1.664/6.

Germany have scored the opening goal in all three of their games so far in the competition. They are 1.8910/11 to win half-time/full-time.

Miroslav Klose needs one more goal to be the World Cup's highest scorer. He is currently joint-top with Ronaldo (15 goals). He is 1.910/11 to score and break the record.

World Cup Opta Stats: Dutch and Greece to boost Euro numbers

A controversial Georgio Samaras penalty guided Greece this far

After South American Saturday, Sunday provides a UEFA v CONCACAF double header, in which both Europeans should deliver at odds-against...

Netherlands v Mexico
Sunday, 17:00
Live on ITV

Match Odds: Netherlands 2.1411/10, Mexico 3.953/1, The Draw 3.55/2

Mexico have lost three and drawn one of their last four encounters with the Netherlands

Both sides have made very few mistakes so far at this World Cup, with Netherlands winning every group game and Mexico's sole "hiccup" being a goalless draw with unbeaten hosts Brazil. However, several trends hint that the Dutch are better equipped to go further, including Mexico's unfortunate streak of five successive round-of-16 exits and Netherlands' run of nine wins in ten World Cup ties.

Recommended Bet: Back Netherlands to win @ 2.1411/10

Mexico have scored a goal in each of their last 11 World Cup matches against European nations

You can be fairly confident about Netherlands netting having done so ten times across their three Group B fixtures - the most of any team in the tournament - including twice without Robin van Persie against Chile. The above stat suggests that Mexico will join them on the scoresheet. They averaged over a goal a game in their group, while their prolific opponents have conceded three times already.

Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 2.01/1

Costa Rica v Greece
Sunday, 21:00
Live on ITV

Match Odds: Costa Rica 2.486/4, Greece 3.45n/a, The Draw 3.211/5

The last team from CONCACAF to go further than the last 16 at the World Cup were USA in 2002

Regional standard-setters Mexico have repeatedly shown the round-of-16 to be their ceiling, as was true of Costa Rica the other time that they ventured this far in 1990. Whereas in Group D, they faced three sides eager to dictate in Uruguay, Italy and England - Opta noting that their highest possession was 44.4% - this clash enforces the less familiar task of setting the tone. Opta also reveal that - prior to Sunday's first match - just one UEFA nation has lost a post-war knockout tie to a CONCACAF rival.

Best Bet: Back Greece to qualify @ 2.186/5

None of Costa Rica's four goals at this World Cup have been scored before the 44th minute

Almost every Opta insight flags this contest up as under 2.5 goal-ripe, but odds of 1.454/9 are a touch restrictive, so a goalless first half is an interesting alternative. As well as the aforementioned Costa Rica scoring pattern, Opta impart that each of Greece's four goals in World Cup history came from the 42nd minute onwards, so at the very least a punt on a half-time 0-0 should present a Cash Out opportunity.

Recommended Bet: Back the 0-0 half-time score @ 2.35/4

World Cup 2014 Report: Brazil breathes sigh of relief in penalty win over Chile

The chosen one: Neymar gives thanks to a higher power

Was it destiny that helped the host nation over the line against Chile? Adam Shearwood looks at how Betfair customers have reacted to Brazil's nerve-jangling penalty win...

The width of a crossbar prevented Chile winning in extra time, a lick of paint saw them go out on penalties. Was today the day Fate made clear the winner of this World Cup?!

Such notions appear to be colouring the views of Betfair customers who have been quick to look past the misplaced passes, the continuing struggles of Fred, and the huge physical exertion taken to overcome the Chileans. Brazil have been backed in to 3.7511/4 to be 2014 Winner - the shortest they, or any team, have been to win the tournament outright. They were available at odds of 4.216/5 prior to tonight's game.

Brazilian fans - and supporters on the Betfair exchange - can breath a huge collective sigh of relief and watch the Colombia v Uruguay match, to see who shall emerge as the host nation's quarter-final opponents. It might, at this point, be a wise move to sip a mojito, just to calm the nerves, for once again Brazil treated supporters to a rollercoaster ride.

They took the lead thanks to Gonzalo Jara (more of him later) flicking an 18th minute corner off the hip of David Luiz and into the net. Luiz was credited with the goal, meaning pre-match backers at 32.031/1 will be raising a glass to the FIFA dubious goals panel this evening.

However, Chile with their unflinching commitment to pressing their opponents and working hard for each other, were never out of it, and a Brazilian defensive lapse allowed the superb Alexis Sanchez to calmly equalise in the 32nd minute - and land at odds of 5.14/1 for his pre-match anytime goalscorer backers.

For much of the second half, Brazil were on the back foot and Chile looked the more likely to score. They came into it a little more once the diabolical Fred was removed for the slightly-less-diabolical Jo - how they could really do with a top quality striker.

Chile's best chance of snatching the win didn't arrive, however, until the last minute of extra time, when Mauricio Pinilla crashed an effort against the crossbar. That was as close as Jorge Sampaoli's valiant side came to the win, as in the ensuing penalty shout-out their destiny was sealed once Gonzalo Jara's penalty hit the inside of the post and glided harmlessly across the face of Julio Cesar's goal and wide. Brazil had been available pre-match at 18.5n/a to go through on penalties.

Neymar's failure to add to his four tournament goals, sees his rivals shorten in the race for the Golden Boot. Lionel Messi remains favourite, now at odds of 3.412/5. 

Luis Suarez banned from "all football activity" for four months

We won't be seeing Suarez again for a very long time

Uruguay and Liverpool both rocked by FIFA punishment which leaves them without world-class striker until October.

Luis Suarez has been banned from all football activity for the next four months as punishment for his bite on Italy's Giorgio Chiellini. 

As well as missing the end of the World Cup, Suarez will also be absent from the first nine matches of Liverpool's Premier League season. 

The 27-year-old has also been ruled out of Uruguay's next nine competitive international matches, the first of which comes on Saturday night against Colombia. 

Beyond just missing time on the pitch, Suarez is "prohibited from entering the confines of any stadium during the period of the ban".

Fifa's punishment has seen big swings in markets containing both Uruguay and Liverpool, with both sides shorn of their main attacking talent. 

At 50.049/1 to back, Uruguay are out among the also-rans in betting on the World Cup winner, having sat around the 30.029/1 mark after beating Italy and trading at a low of 20.019/1 in the market. Heading into the last-16 matches, nine teams can be backed at shorter prices to win the World Cup.  

Liverpool, too, have drifted in betting on the 2014/15 Premier League title. Once backed at a low of 3.55/2 the Anfield side are 10.5n/a fourth favourites to finish top of the pile next season. 

Although banned from all football activity, Suarez could still be transferred during his ban which means that when we next see him on a football pitch it could be in the white of Real Madrid.