How clay courts affect players at the French Open

How clay courts affect players at the French Open

By Jack Ratcliffe May 17, 2013

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One player has dominated the French Open like no other: Rafael Nadal. But why does the red clay favour the Spaniard so strongly? Find out what affect surface type has on the top 20 ATP players and how this knowledge can help your tennis betting?

Nadal is as short as 2.000* with Pinnacle Sports to win the 2013 French Open following seven wins at Roland Garros. The Spaniard’s dominance on clay, however is down to a simple piece of science: friction. The torn-up nature of the surface means that the clay particles generate a lot more friction when balls bounce off the ground – far more than grass or hard courts.

Clay court science

The resistance generated when the ball collides with the clay slows down the bottom of the ball, but doesn’t affect the velocity of the top of it, which continues travelling at the same speed. The disparity between the consistent speed (at the top of the ball) and the deceleration (on the bottom of the ball) forces a more vertical impact with the floor.

The increased vertical angle then causes a higher bounce, which coupled with an overall decrease in speed, ensures that it’s harder to hit a winner and easier to return shots. While this provides a distinct benefit for anyone returning serve, it also means the surface is ideal for consistent, powerful baseline players – like Rafael Nadal.

Taking a note of a player’s style is particularly important for tennis betting for the French Open and other clay tournaments, as the competition favours baseline players over attackers (Federer) and players who built their ranking on big serves (plenty of other players in the top 20).

Clay court aces: few and far between

One of the biggest statistics supporting the science behind the quirks of clay courts is ace percentages. Throughout the careers of all of the top 20 ATP players, every one has hit noticeably fewer aces on clay than on hard courts. On average, the ATP top 20 has hit 43.5% fewer aces on clay than on hard courts.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 279.850* is the biggest victim of the curse of clay, hitting 79.5% fewer aces over his career on the crushed brick than on hard courts. The Frenchman averages just 7.3 ace serves out of 100, compared with 13.1 on hard.

Milos Raonic has recorded the highest career ace percentage on the surface (12.9 per 100 serves), which is still a massive 52.7% drop on his hard court performances.

Service stopper

Nineteen of the 20 top ATP players win fewer points on their first serves on clay than on hard courts. While this is partially accounted for by a reduction in aces, the fact that clay courts gives receivers a better opportunity to return the ball is also vital.

Only Juan Monaco manages to win more points on his first serve on clay – 0.9% more – than on hard courts. He also wins more points on clay on his second serve – 3.2%. Such tidbits are useful for tennis betting, as not many people would consider anyone to win more points on their serve on clay than on a hard court. This fact suggests that Monaco could easily be underrated on the surface.

Returners’ revenge

Every player in the ATP top 20 has an improved “return points won” percentage on clay. While the improvement can be as little as 0.8% (Janko Tipsarevic), it’s also the statistic that shows Nadal’s dominance. With a 14.3% increase in return points won on clay; the Spaniard wins an incredible 46.9% of points served at him.

Spanish supremacy

All three Spanish men inside the top 20 boast exceptional clay-court performance. Nadal and David Ferrer win more return points on clay than any other player, winning 46.9% and 44.2% respectively (Djokovic is at 43.9%).

Taking note of a player’s style is vital for tennis betting on the French Open

This is almost certainly helped by the fact that clay is the primary surface in Spain, largely because of the hot, dry climate. This could be why Andy Murray, who spent a lot of his youth training in Spain, has the fifth highest return point percentage of the top 20 at 43.6%.

In terms of the performance difference between clay and hard courts, Nadal and fellow Spaniard Nicolas Almagro top the table, successfully returning on 14.3% and 10.7% more points on clay than hard courts.

It could also be argued that Nicolas Almagro is the most surface-agnostic of the top 20 players, hitting just 18.9% fewer aces on the surface (the second smallest drop), and winning just 0.5% fewer points on his first serve and 0.4% on his second – the smallest differences of any player.

Other clay outliers

Investigating the performance of the 20 top ATP players also revealed some other interesting facts about players not usually associated with their clay-court performances:

Kei Nishikori: Nishikori actually wins the third-highest percentage of return points of any of the top 20 players at 43.9%. Only Nadal and Ferrer do better. Despite this success, he also has the lowest ace rate – the Japanese star achieves just 2.5 aces per 100 serves.

Stanislas Wawrinka: The Swiss ace doesn’t have much luck winning his first serve on clay – he wins 21.8% fewer points on his first serve on the surface.

Janko Tipsarevic: Tipsarevic’s return point performance is pretty much constant between the clay and hard courts – he only wins 0.8% more return points on clay, the lowest of any of the ATP 20.

Almost no other sports have the variety that tennis’ different court surfaces bring, nor witness as profound an effect. Therefore for any serious tennis bettor, it is vital to treat the clay, hard and grass courts as separate entities, each with its unique quirks that should be built into betting analysis.

Click here for the latest ATP French Open odds (and here for the WTA French Open odds).

French Open Live Betting – 1st Round Limits Raised to $2,000

Pinnacle Sports has raised the limits of next game bets to $2,000 for the 1st round of the French Open, up from $250. These limits increase throughout the tournament, so tennis live betting fans can now bet even more and stay in the action.

The French Open will also see the launch of live spread and live totals betting for tennis matches, which will be posted during changeovers in addition to the money line at every changeover.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

*Odds subject to change

Which drivers’ convert best from pole position?

Which drivers’ convert best from pole position?

 

By Michael Gales Jul 3, 2013

 

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Securing pole position in qualifying gives a Formula One driver the best possible chance of winning the race. But how often do the best drivers’ convert, and who is the most successfully at converting pole positions into race wins?

Pole position drivers win 49% of races

Along with understanding the positive relationship between qualifying and final race position (click here), it is worth bettors noting which drivers have the highest pole position-to-race wins conversion rate.

Eight drivers – Fernando Alonso, Felipe Massa, Lewis Hamilton, Nico Rosberg, Sebastian Vettel, Mark Webber, Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen – have secured 93% (109 pole positions) of pole positions in the last seven Grand Prix seasons.

From these 109 pole positions, the drivers’ converted their starting position into a race win 52% of the time. This is slightly higher than the overall ten-year average conversion rate of 49% across 142 races.

Drivers pole conversion table

Driver

Races

Number of Pole positions

Percentage of races driver secures pole (%)

Pole to win conversion (%)

Fernando Alonso

189

22

11.64%

54.55%

Felipe Massa

166

15

9.04%

53.33%

Lewis Hamilton

118

27

22.88%

40.74%

Nico Rosberg

136

4

2.94%

50%

Sebastian Vettel

109

39

35.78%

53.85%

Mark Webber

189

11

5.82%

36.36%

Jenson Button

185

8

4.32%

62.50%

Kimi Raikkonen

151

16

10.60%

37.50%

Fab Four – Hamilton, Vettel, Alonso and Raikkonen

Statistically, the four drivers – Alonso, Vettel, Hamilton and Raikkonen – stand out from the other four drivers in the above sample.

These drivers have secured pole on 66% (78/118 races) of occasions over the past seven seasons.

Vettel alone has secured 39 pole positions – a remarkable 36% of all Grand Prix in the past seven years. Hamilton is the next closest with 27 poles in 118 races, which means between the two drivers they have secured pole position 59% of the time since the start of the 2007 Grand Prix season.

Spaniard Alonso may have only claimed pole position seven times since 2007, but he has converted five into victories, giving him the highest pole conversion rate of any of these top four. Raikkonen follows with a 60% conversion rate, while Vettel coverts just over half of his pole positions into wins, and Hamilton manages a lowly 40%.

Winning when not on pole separates the best from the rest

With nearly half of all pole positions converted into race victories over the last decade, we also looked at the ‘fab fours’ ability to win races when not starting from pole position compared to Button, Massa, Webber and Rosberg.

Hamilton and co. individually won 11.08% of the time when not starting on pole position, compared to just 2.64% for the rest – a huge decrease.

Intriguingly only slightly behind Vettel, Raikkonen has the 2nd highest average (11.11%) of race wins when not starting on pole. This may be reflective to the fewer number of pole positions (10.60%) he has secured compared to others.

All of the ‘fab four’ win on average more than 10.5% of their races when not starting from pole position, while the other four drivers are considerably lower – Button (5.56%), Massa (1.99%), Webber (2.25%) and Rosberg (0.76%).

Research is a Formula One bettors best friend

Looking at drivers’ pole conversion rates is not, on its own, sufficient enough to create an edge over the bookmaker. To be profitable in Formula One betting statistics should be gathered for track familiarity, weather, race strategy, tyre issues, car reliability and racing incidents, all of which would affect the likelihood of converting pole positions.

You will then be in a stronger position to make an informed decision about Formula One race winners.

Click here to see the latest Formula One odds

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

*Odds subject to change

Who will profit from new tyres at German GP?

Who will profit from new tyres at German GP?

By Michael Gales Jul 5, 2013

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With exploding tyres still on the forefront of F1 fans’ minds, Formula One heads to the Nurburgring for the German GP. With Pirelli announcing a change to a Kevlar-belted tyre for round 9, who will profit the most from the change in tyres?

Nurburgring – Fast & Furious

Formula One returns to the world famous Nurburgring in the Eifel mountains for the 2013 German Grand Prix.

As part of its race-share agreement with Hockenheim, the famous venue returns for the first time since 2011 and coincides with what is undoubtedly home favourites Mercedes’ first realistic chance to claim a first home win as a team in nearly half a century.

The track has been through various incarnations since it hosted the inaugural German Grand Prix of the World Championship era in 1951. The modern circuit is fast and flowing, mostly made up of medium speed corners.

The first corner is particularly challenging at the Nurburgring, especially after the start where it is often the scene of accidents. Qualifying at the front of the grid is vital to ensure a clean getaway.

Kevlar tyres under the spotlight

Pirelli have reverted back to the Kevlar-belted rear tyres for both the medium and soft compound for the German GP, which have already been tested at the Friday practice sessions in Canada. The announcement comes after a number of tyre failures last time out at Silverstone.

Because of the annual race-share, the Nurburgring is one of the least well-known circuits for Pirelli having only raced their once before. The tyre choice is the same as 2011 but since then the tyres have got softer and faster, so expect a quicker race time with an average of three pit stops for most drivers.

With no tyre data from last year on this circuit, free practice will be particularly important when it comes to assessing how the latest 2013 tyres react in different temperatures and differing fuel loads. This data will essentially decide the strategy for qualifying and the race.

New tyres favour Mercedes

With the change in compound and construction the tyre will be more robust, which may have an impact upon the championship. But who will the new tyre affect the most?

Fundamentally the more aggressive the tyre is for the circuit, the better Ferrari and Lotus perform, while the Red Bull and, particularly, Mercedes struggle.

The Lotus has been very easy on its tyres, allowing them to take advantage of other teams’ problems. The Lotus performs best in hot temperatures and when track is demanding on tyres.  However, the downside for lotus is when the compound is durable which sees the Lotus loose performance and endurance.

The Ferrari meanwhile is not as sympathetic on the tyre in normal conditions.  But relative to Mercedes (rear tyre) and Red Bull  (front tyre) it performs slightly better. Fernando Alonso’s two victories this year came at tracks that were particularly hard on the front tyres and where the Red Bull struggled.

Furthermore, the Kevlar-belted tyre will reduce rear temperatures, giving an enormous advantage to Mercedes, giving them a realistic chance of maintaining their rapid qualifying form into the races.

Correlation data

After proving there was a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here), we have used the same model to examine the last ten Grand Prix at the Nurburgring to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying as a race performance indicator at the famous circuit.

In the last ten Grand Prix at Nurburgring there has been an average of 20.3 overtakes, while 2011 saw 52 overtakes.

The data shows a 0.47 correlation between qualifying and race position at the Nurburgring racetrack. Only 40% of races correlate showcasing that qualifying at the Nurburgring doesn’t provide a strong predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

30% of polesitters at the past 10 Nurburgring GP’s have gone on to win the race, with the last being Mark Webber in 2009.

Vettel has never won at Nurburgring

With the Nurburgring race a biennial event these days, only three active drivers have actually won at the circuit – Fernando Alonso (twice), Mark Webber and Lewis Hamilton.

That statistic obviously means that Germany’s Sebastian Vettel has, quite astonishingly, never won on home soil – the triple World Champion’s best result in five attempts is second-place to team-mate Webber in that 2009 race.

This is remarkable given that Vettel has secured pole in 35.78% of races in his Formula One career (read here which drivers perform better on pole).

Another interesting fact is that the German has not won any of his 29 race victories in the month of July.

Click here to see the latest German Grand Prix odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

The difference between sports and sports betting

The difference between sports and sports betting

By Mirio Mella Jul 5, 2013

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One of the most common betting mistakes is to confuse specialist knowledge in sports with a specialty in sports betting. This error is illustrated by the proliferation of ex-professional sports stars that become betting tipsters or self-proclaimed experts, and is neatly described by the “Green Lumber Fallacy”.

One of the most successful traders to ever buy and sell green lumber – which is freshly cut wood – actually had no idea what he was trading. He spent his entire green lumber career believing the product was just wood painted green, and not newly cut trees.

The term “Green Lumber Fallacy” was coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his recent book ‘Antifragile’, where he outlined a second similar situation: a star Swiss Franc trader who’s inability to locate Switzerland on the map didn’t hinder his ability to make money trading its currency.

Understanding risk is as important, if not more so, than knowledge of the sport itself

So how do people ignorant of what they are trading succeed? And how does this apply to betting?

These two – and many more – simply understand risk, something that other people, even those with an intimate knowledge of green lumber or the central European country, do not.

While knowing about the market and risk is obviously the ideal situation, it’s vital to remember that understanding risk is as important, if not more so, than knowledge of the sport itself.

This contrasts with the images presented on the back pages of any national newspaper, where you are likely to find retired sports personalities heading tipping columns. It’s understandable that bettors might give weight to the opinion of say an ex-soccer player with regard to betting on soccer, but remember: soccer and betting on soccer are two completely separate domains.

Acknowledging and applying risk

Taleb may have given the Green Lumber Fallacy its name, but the theory appears elsewhere. For example, in Michael Lewis’ highly influential Moneyball centers on the idea that over a century’s collective wisdom of MLB insiders was based on flawed subjective analysis, and in its place a more analytical approach focused on a few fundamental key metrics would prove more effective.

The Moneyball approach has been adopted by several English Premier League managers, challenging the old-school, heavily subjective approach, which is very difficult to quantify and often clouded by confirmation bias.

For any bettors reading this, the following points are important for successful sports betting:

Just because someone has detailed knowledge or experience of a sport doesn’t mean they have the required knowledge to bet successfully on that sport.

Talking heads/journalists/tipsters love a narrative, a story that neatly explains for example a teams loss of form, and they love even more to back-fit narratives to explain when the story moves in a totally unexpected direction (as is often the case).

You should ask this question of yourself – do you think that knowing about golf means you should jump into betting on golf with confidence?

Of course, no one is suggesting sports knowledge is totally irrelevant or valueless for betting on sport, but the narrative in mainstream media is to refer to talking heads as predictive experts, but their domain specialisation, just like with Green Lumber, generally means they are rarely appropriately placed to be judging risk or make predictions that you should follow with your hard-earned money.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

Great reasons to Parlay at Pinnacle Sports

Great reasons to Parlay at Pinnacle Sports

By Jack Ratcliffe Jul 11, 2013

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Parlays, accumulators and combi-bets allow you to bet on multiple outcomes for different events, multiplying the potential rewards. With parlays now starting as low as $99 at Pinnacle, we look at how parlays can pay off, and what their drawbacks are.

How parlays, accumulators and combo bets work

When you make a parlay bet (also known as an accumulators or combo bet), you’re actually placing multiple bets on different events. For example, a traditional soccer accumulator might look like this:

Selection 1: Arsenal (Handicap -1 and -1.5) 1.794

Selection 2: Chelsea (Handicap -1.5 and -2 ) 1.877

Selection 3: Tottenham Hotspur (Handicap -0.5 and -1) 2.050

The above selection shows that a bet has been placed on Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur to win (with a handicap) against their rivals on the 17th of August.

If all three of those teams’ won (and covered the handicap), the payout would be the three sets of odds multiplied together.

1.794 x 1.877 x 2.050 = 6.903

Therefore if you placed a 100 bet on this accumulator, you would get back 690.30 – 590.30 profit plus your 100 stake. If you simply bet on these three outcomes individually, you would win 79.40, 87.70 and 105, for a total of 272.20.

As you can see, even simple accumulators can win you more. With increased winnings comes increased risk, however. Should any of those three selections be incorrect, you won’t win anything. It’s considered a good tactic with accumulators to have “anchors”, selections where you feel more strongly about the outcome. You can then use these to build bigger winnings using slightly longer-odds bets.

As the above example was a handicap bet, it’s important to take note of what happens when an outcome is a “push”, which means after the handicap is taken into account the game is a tie. For this circumstance, that selection is removed from the parlay, the winnings are recalculated and that part of the stake is returned to you.

Parlays at Pinnacle Sports

The number of selections in parlays can range in size from just two selections up to eight, which means it’s possible to get some very large wins from them. Parlays at Pinnacle Sports now start from $99, with limits going up to as high as $10,000.

The maximum bet you can place on a parlay is determined by the limits for the markets involved. It’s generally correct to assume that parlay limits match those of the lowest limit in a market, so if two of you selections were $10,000 limits and one was $100, it’s likely to be closed to $100. The maximum win on a parlay for one calendar day is $250,000.

Parlays can also be placed between different leagues and sports, so you can bet on Arsenal, the New York Knicks and Anderson Silva in the UFC all on one slip.

For further information on parlays at Pinnacle Sports, please visit our Parlay Rules section here.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

*Odds subject to change

Overtaking, incidents and chaos expected in Montreal

Overtaking, incidents and chaos expected in Montreal

By Michael Gales May 31, 2013

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Round seven of the Formula one championship sees the paddock cross the Atlantic to Montreal for the Canadian Grand Prix. History indicates there will be plenty of excitement, overtaking and racing incidents at the street circuit.

Circuit Gilles Villeneuve – Enthralling & chaotic action

The track at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is tough on the tyres and creates plenty of overtaking opportunities. Coupled alongside frequently variable weather, this means the Canadian GP is one of the most exciting and unpredictable races of the year, with a much higher percentage of stoppages, incidents and safety cars.

Cars with good downforce should prosper as the track requires a high-downforce setup to aid stability under braking – the track tests brakes to their limits – and for traction on the corner exit.

Overtaking is encouraged at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Last year saw 47 overtake manoeuvres in a dry race, while history shows that races average 28.30 overtakes. The last three years have an average of 79 overtakes.

The Canadian GP also has a high frequency for driver retirement. Over the past ten Canadian races seven drivers have been disqualified, while there has been an average of 6.7 retirements per race.

Tyres pushed to the limit

The teams will use the supersoft and medium Pirelli tyres, and will face a different challenge than at Monaco two weeks ago.

The Canadian GP is the hardest circuit on the cars’ brakes. With heavy braking areas and traction required to power out of the slow and medium corners, the tyres face a heavy demand.

Because it’s a street circuit, the surface has low-grip, causing cars to slide which increased tyre-wear. Knowing how to manage the tyres is crucial, while the demands of the track will almost certainly ensure cars are unable to carry out long stints. This conundrum could mean the teams are likely to split their strategies in order to cover every possibility.

Racing Drama allows for little correlation

After proving there was a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here), we have used the same model to examine the last ten Canadian Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve as a race performance indicator.

It is no surprise – with plenty of overtaking opportunities, and a high frequency for retirements – that the Canadian GP has the weakest correlation (0.37) of the tracks raced at so far this season.

Canada, despite having the weakest correlation thus far, sees 50% of races with a correlation above 0.5, which showcases that qualifying provided a reasonable predictor of a drivers’ race performance. However, just 30% of drivers finishing on pole in the past 10 Canadian GPs have won the race, with the last being Lewis Hamilton in 2010.

Another point worth noting is that because the circuit is semi-permanent, there is a high level of circuit evolution over the weekend, with the lap times getting progressively quicker as more rubber is laid down. This is worth noting if betting on qualifying, as teams last to post a qualifying lap could have the best chance of securing pole position for the race on Sunday.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

*Odds subject to change

Qualifying good indicator of Silverstone performance

Qualifying a good indicator of race performance at Silverstone

By Michael Gales Jun 14, 2013

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The Formula One paddock arrives back in Europe for the British Grand Prix at Silverstone on June 30th. Despite a strong correlation between qualifying and race performance, only 30% of polesitters have gone on to win in the last decade.

Silverstone circuit

After two consecutive street circuit races, Formula One returns to one of the most traditional permanent tracks of the year at Silverstone for the British Grand Prix.

Silverstone is arguably the most iconic circuit raced in the season because it is extremely demanding for the drivers, cars and tyres.

The racetrack has had major redevelopment work in recent years, with substantial changes to the track, which has created more overtaking opportunities, especially with the introduction of DRS.

No new tyres for Silverstone

Pirelli announced they will not use new rear tyres at the British Grand Prix as planned after wet weather on Friday in Canada limited the teams’ testing – the new tyre is designed to reduce the risk of delamination, but a lower operating temperature means it could also have an impact on performance for some teams.

The teams will have the hard and medium tyres available – the two hardest tyres in Pirelli’s range – which are best suited to the high-energy demands of the Silverstone track.

The track surface can be quite abrasive, which increases wear, while the tyre assembly has to cope with extended periods when the cars are at top speed.

Unpredictable British weather

Despite eight of the last 10 British GP’s being dry, Silverstone is often characterised by a wide variety of climatic conditions over the race weekend, with ambient temperatures ranging between 15 to 30 degrees.

The inclement weather is the biggest difficulty in terms of set-up. Drivers have to focus on their car and collect as much information as possible during each session – a set-up that isn’t perfect for race day conditions could see the driver lagging at the back of the grid.

Good tyre management, an effective strategy and a good car set-up are vital ingredients for a successful race outcome.

Strong correlation despite pole sitter struggling

After proving there was a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here), we have used the same model to examine the last ten British Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at Silverstone as a race performance indicator.

In the last 29 British Grand Prix there has been an average of 25.86 overtakes, while last year saw 48 overtakes. So far this season there have been 59.17 overtakes on average compared to 51.28 last season.

The data shows a strong 0.67 correlation between qualifying and race position at the British Grand Prix. Interestingly, the correlation is amongst the strongest of the previous Grand Prix this season.

90% of races correlate, with just the 2008 British GP having a poor correlation (0.39) – however this was due to seriously wet weather, which saw seven retirements. The data showcases that qualifying at the British GP provides a strong predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

Despite a strong correlation between qualifying and race performance, only 30% of polesitters at the past 10 British GP’s have gone on to win the race, with the last being Sebastian Vettel in 2009.

Only three drivers have secured pole position in the previous seven races this season and it’s the three-time world champion Vettel who has the best conversion (66%) with two wins from three poles – Lewis Hamilton (0% from one pole) and Nico Rosberg (33% from three poles) are the others.

Another point to note is that despite Vettel often having the edge over his teammate Mark Webber, it is the Australian who has had the advantage over the triple world champion in Britain, having taken four straight podiums, including two wins.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

*Odds subject to change