Premier League Top Four Betting: Back Arsenal to overhaul Spurs

Arsenal's run in makes them slight favourites for fourth place

Using stats provided exclusively to Betfair by Opta, Luke Moore casts his eye over the candidates to clinch that all-important last Champions League place...

Chelsea
Points: 55
Current position: 3rd
Games Remaining: 9
Odds to finish in the Top Four: 1.182/11

In pole position to secure a Top Four place in this year's Premier League out of the teams listed, Chelsea under Rafa Benitez look to have put their on-pitch problems behind them. A loss to Man City is the only blip in their last four games, the other three producing decent wins, and with games to come against Sunderland, Southampton, Fulham and Villa, you'd have to fancy the Blues to pick up enough points to grab that Top Four spot back after last season's aberration. Benitez's men currently sit third on 55 points, and the average points total for a fourth place position in the 20 team Premier League era is 68. 13 points from nine games should not be beyond them, and it'll be a huge surprise to see them drop down at this stage.

Tottenham Hotspur
Points: 54
Current position: 4th
Games Remaining: 8
Odds to finish in the Top Four: 2.186/5

Spurs can consider themselves very unlucky to have not been competing in the Champions League this season. They did what was asked of them and finished in the Top Four, but Chelsea winning in Munich meant they had to settle for a Europa League berth. Having looked in good shape for most of this season, they now face arguably the biggest test of the year in trying to hang on in the face of considerable pressure from north London rivals Arsenal. With sparse attacking options and a difficult end of March/April, Spurs must buck the trend of slow finishes to Premier League seasons. Over the course of the league's 20 team lifespan, in April and May they sit just 11th and 10th respectively in the form table. A repeat of that inconsistent form won't be enough to keep the Gunners from overtaking them, and AVB's side also have Europa League exertions to contend with.

A positive can be drawn from Spurs' May fixture list however: A trip to Stoke is bookended by home games against Sunderland and Southampton. 

Arsenal 
Points: 50
Current position: 5th
Games Remaining: 9
Odds to finish in the Top Four: 1.784/5

If you subscribe the tabloid press narrative around Arsenal this year, you'd be forgiven for thinking their season has been a disaster. In actual fact, they're in reasonable shape going into the final stretch; second in the form table behind only Manchester United and four points behind Spurs in fourth with a game in hand, Arsenal also have a tradition of finishing the season strongly. On average, in April Arsenal pick up around 1.91 points per game, which is second only to all-conquering Manchester United. What's more, eight of their last nine games are eminently winnable and the only really tricky tie comes at the end of April in the shape of a home game against Ferguson's men who will have the title sewn up by then. 

All that aside though, Arsenal have looked brittle when the pressure has been on this season and they may not quite have the nerve to survive a nail-biting final run. Although momentum is key, it remains to be seen whether this particular Arsenal side has the mettle to cope.

Everton
Points: 48
Current position: 6th
Games Remaining: 9
Odds to finish in the Top Four: 11.010/1

Rank outsiders for a Top Four finish now after a tremendous start to the season, the feeling around Goodison Park now is now one of what could have been. Moyes and his charges gave themselves more of a chance with a fine win against Man City last week, but a loss to Norwich and three draws against Villa, Southampton and Swansea were really damaging for the Toffees. Despite having a reputation for being strong finishers, Everton's record in May is actually pretty poor - just 1.26 points per game is not Champions League form, and away games against Liverpool and Chelsea in the last month of the season this term mean they're very unlucky to climb the two positions they need.

Recommended Bet

Back Arsenal to finish in the Top Four at 1.784/5

Timeform UK SmartPlays: Tuesday March 26

Hughie Morrison saddles our final SmartPlay

Timeform head to Lingfield and Southwell, bringing you three all-weather selections on Tuesday...

Our first bet comes in the opening race at Lingfield as we take a chance on Ralph Beckett's Day In Day Out getting the better of likely favourite Gabrial The Duke. The selection would have a bit to find with the market leader on the bare form, but he looks capable of better, especially when you consider that he is lightly raced and unexposed. Day In Day Out has had just the two starts in handicap company so far, the first attempt easily forgivable as he was hampered, while his second effort, when finishing second at Kempton in December, indicates that he is on a fair mark. He offers a bit of value and could be capable of overturning Gabrial The Duke.

We have a bit of a wait until our next SmartPlay as we select Wordiness to complete the four-timer in the 16:50 at Lingfield. Brendan Powell's much-improved five-year-old has really hit a good patch of form, winning on his last three outings, including over C&D last time, and he looks capable of notching up another win today. That cosy win 10 days ago means that he has an 8 lb rise in the weights to contend with, but, such was the authority of the success, that should not be enough to prevent him going in again under man-of-the-moment Robert Tart.

We head to Southwell for our last selection as we turn to a trusted fibresand ally in the shape of Hughie Morrison, selecting his contender in the 17:00, Cecily Parsley. Morrison has a fantastic record at Southwell and it is always worth noting when he opts to send a horse to tackle the unique fibresand surface. Cecily Parsley looks likely to benefit from the increased emphasis on stamina, having improved when faced with two miles on the polytrack at Lingfield on his most recent Flat outing, and, with the blinkers applied for the first time, he should be able to produce an improved performance.

Timeform SmartPlays:

Back Day In Day Out @ 4.84/1 in the 14:20 at Lingfield
Back Wordiness @ 1.9420/21 in the 16:50 at Lingfield
Back Cecily Parsley @ 4.77/2 in the 17:00 at Southwell

Get open access to Timeform data for just 2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!

World Cup Betting: Back both teams to score and a narrow win for England in Montenegro

Steven Gerrard will be recalled to the England team for the game in Montenegro

After England made short work of San Marino, they now travel on to Montenegro to contest what looks like a far trickier encounter. Luke Moore takes a look...

In a job well done against the part-timers of San Marino, England accounted for Friday night's opponents with minimal fuss and now look ahead to Tuesday night's showdown with a far more dangerous foe.

Roy Hodgson's men remain two points behind Montenegro, who secured a 0-1 win over Moldova in pretty trying circumstances after being reduced to ten men when midfielder Milorad Pekovic was dismissed. The scorer of that winner was Juventus' Mirko Vucinic, a striker of decent pedigree whose time at Juventus was preceded by five seasons at Roma, the last of which convinced the Old Lady to part with 15m Euros for his services. His goalscoring record almost touches one in two and he will be ably aided and abetted by Fiorentina's Stevan Jovetic, one of Serie A's superstar performers who is perfectly capable of putting England's backline to the sword on his day.

Montenegro were drawn in the same qualifying group as England for Euro 2012 and England failed to beat them both home and away. A 0-0 draw at Wembley was followed by a stalemate in Podgorica as the Three Lions were pegged back after going 0-2 ahead, the game eventually finishing 2-2 after Wayne Rooney's petulant sending off was followed by an injury time equaliser from Rayo Vallecano's Andrija Delibasic.

England only needed a point from that final game to progress to Euro 2012, but they will certainly need more than that on Tuesday. I think a confident England have enough to overcome a pretty handy Montenegrin side, but a loss of personnel at the back is a concern. The aforementioned Vucinic and Jovetic can threaten a centre back pairing of Lescott and Smalling, who have just 20 Premier League starts between them this season. Indeed, San Marino presented the first time they had ever played together, so the midfield players selected in front of them will need to take responsibility for forwards dropping deep. The recall of captain Steven Gerrard will be a boost, as these days he eschews the lung-busting box to box bluster of yesteryear and looks to dictate play from deeper while providing an outlet for the inexperienced centre halves.

The team Hodgson selects must maintain their focus and discipline for this game. It wouldn't be surprising to see Danny Welbeck recalled to run the channels, hold the ball up and add more frontline energy to the side, something he does with aplomb at Manchester United. With him as a busy out ball, he can bring others into play and England can look to hurt Montenegro that way.

Recommended Bet

England look a bit short at 1.824/5 to win in Podgorica; Branko Brnovic has built a capable team around two match-winners in the shape of Jovetic and Vucinic who could certainly stop England, especially at home. I'd much rather go for both teams to score, which is currently trading at 2.07n/a. I think England will nick it, probably 1-2 or 1-3, and if you're feeling brave, prices for that are 10.09/1 and 19.5n/a respectively.

WTA Sony Open Betting: Serena eyeing place in quarter-finals

Serena has looked a worthy favourite...

With the draw in Miami taking shape, Serena Williams is back in action on Monday following a weekend full of surprises. It's back to business for the American world number one as she looks to secure her place in the quarter-finals.

Williams has been dominant in both of her matches thus far, dropping just two games in her opening clash against Flavia Pennetta before brushing aside Ayumi Morita. She now faces 13th seed Dominika Cibulkova who has yet to drop a set herself this tournament.

Cibulkova has looked determined so far but such is the form of her American opponent it is difficult to see how she can navigate her way past the top seed. This is reflected in Serena's favourable odds, as she is a sure-fire bet to advance at the expense of the Slovakian.

Should she win, there is a potential clash with Na Li to look forward to in the next round as the fifth seed opens the day's play against surprise package Garbine Muguruza. The Spanish wildcard entrant has already sent two top seeds home, including a straight sets win over Caroline Wozniacki.

But Li has looked sharp, shaking off an ankle injury that had kept her off the court since the Australian Open to breeze through her opening two matches. On paper this would seem a comfortable win for Li, but given the unpredictability offered by Muguruza there could be another upset on the cards.

Despite the temptation to side with the underdog to deliver again, back Li to see off the Spanish challenge and set up a mouth-watering clash against Serena.

Elsewhere in the top half of the draw, another wildcard entrant has made the news this past week as Ajla Tomljanovic has taken advantage of a favourable draw. The Croatian takes on 30th seed Kirsten Flipkens on Monday, who should prevail after ending Petra Kvitova's tournament in the last round.

Defending champion Agnieszka Radwanska is also in action as she faces Sloane Stephens for a place in the quarters. Following Venus Williams' withdrawal with injury, Stephens received a walkover and that inactivity could hinder her chances against the fourth seed. The pair have met just once before, with the Polish ace coming out on top in three sets in Cincinnati last year. Back her to produce a repeat performance in Miami.

The bottom half of the draw will also become clearer on Monday, as all 16 remaining ladies are in action. While Maria Sharapova will be confident of overcoming Klara Zakopalova for the fifth straight time in meetings between the two, the tie of the round could come in the form of Sara Errani taking on Ana Ivanovic.

Neither have dropped a set in Miami as of yet, with the Italian losing just one game in her demolition job of Simona Halep in the last round.
However, Ivanovic has been in fine form too and she is worth a small investment to causing an 'upset' against the eighth seed.

Angelique Kerber's conqueror, Sorana Cirstea, takes on Jelena Jankovic while Roberto Vinci faces Alize Cornet in the remaining matches. Cirstea was unplayable on Sunday, while Jankovic battled past Nadia Petrova. Back the Romanian to deliver while a weary Cornet will fall to Vinci after gruelling back-to-back three setters.

Recommended Bets:
Back S. Williams -6.5 games vs Cibulkova @ 1.635/8
Back Li to beat Muguruza 2-0 @ 1.625/8
Back Ivanovic to beat Errani @ 2.526/4
Back Over 20.5 games in Radwanska vs Stephens @ 1.875/6
Back Cirstea to beat Jankovic @ 2.021/1

Follow The Money: Southwell survives the weather

Southwell is the only meeting to survive today's unseasonal weather

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the day's only surviving GB or Irish card; Southwell...

We start in today's first race, the three runner 13:25 1m4f Handicap, where the Mark Johnston trained Royal Skies has seen some decent money. A high of 2.35/4 earlier he is now around the 1.9420/21 mark. The move has taken 70k of the 112k matched (11.20am). It's the colts debut this season and first time on fibresand but Johnston's runners do very well at Southwell. Related to some good middle distance winners the money suggests that the step up in trip will be suited. On the face of it he'll only have one other to beat, Edwyn Ralph, but he's moved in the opposite direction suggesting the switch from Lingfield's Polytrack might see his decent run end. 

Next up, in the 14:00 1m4f Handicap we see our second back, Linroyale Boy. Initially trading at around 4.216/5 the Alan Swinbank runner is now down to 3.39/4. Last time out he was beaten by a long way but that was over two furlong longer and he should be suited stepping back to a trip where he finished second recently to an in-form handicapper. There are a few with chances but Robert Winston's mount is the only one to see steady early support so gets our nod. 

Finally we move on to the last race of the day for today's lay. Michael Appleby's Maggie Pink has drifted steadily from 2.226/5 out to 3.02/1 in the 16:50 1m Handicap. She won at Wolverhampton on Tuesday but sees a 6lb penalty back up in trip on an unproven surface and as such there are others, with course and distance previous, who take preference. 

Recommended Bets

Back Royal Skies @ 1.9420/21 13:25 Southwell
Back Linroyale Boy @ 3.39/4 14:00 Southwell
Lay Maggie Pink @ 3.02/1 16:50 Southwell

Dubai World Cup: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Hunter's Light is taken to win the Dubai World Cup

Timeform provide a runner-by-runner guide to the world's richest race, the Dubai World Cup...

Treasure Beach was an Irish Derby winner in his time but failed to win for Aidan O'Brien last year, best effort when second to Point Of Entry in a Grade 1. Promising debut for this yard and should build on that.

Red Cadeux is a tough and reliable sort who won a couple last year, including the Hong Kong Vase on his final start. Shorter trip and different surface to contend with here so looks opposable.

Dullahan is a high-class performer in America if not the most consistent, best effort last year when winning a Grade 1 at Del Mar. Got worked up and trip sharp enough on return and claims on best form.

Hunter's Light has an impressive strike rate, and has been most progressive at Meydan this year, winning the second and third legs of the Maktoum Challenge with plenty in hand. Looks one of the leading candidates.

Capponi progressed well in 2012, winning the third round of the Maktoum Challenge before finishing second in this corresponding event. Not seen since then which is a concern.

Side Glance is a consistent performer who won Epsom Group 3 last June before finishing placed on his next 4 starts. Good run behind Sajjhaa on return but should be outclassed in this.

Planteur is a very smart performer, whose 4 outings last term all came at the highest level, including when placed in Dubai World Cup. Made all to win listed race on return and could sneak a place again.

Royal Delta was well held in this last year but things didn't pan out for her and she's improved since then, winning 4 times in 2012. Confirmed wellbeing with recent win at Gulfstream and a leading player.

Meandre won a pair of Group 1's last season, victory over Shareta at Saint-Cloud the pick of them. Held his form well otherwise and should come on for reappearance when tackling an unsuitable trip.

Monterosso won the Dubai World Cup in 2012, but has been well beaten since then, not showing a great deal when down the field behind Hunter's Light latest. Could easily peak in this again but enough to prove.

African Story has an excellent record on this surface, winning 4 times including the Godolphin Mile last year. Better than ever on return when landing the Burj Nahaar and intriguing contender if staying.

Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby in 2011 but last season was curtailed due to injury (was due to run in this). Has come back looking better than ever, second to Point Of Entry recently, and a leading player.

Kassiano has been progressing really well, winning 3 of his 5 starts this year. Best effort in defeat when second to Hunter's Light last time and could easily reach a place once more under ideal conditions.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Hunter's Light
2. Royal Delta
3. African Story

Timeform View: The Americans have struggled since this race was switched to tapeta and whilst this is their strongest challenge for some time, they may struggle to contain Hunter's Light who is a horse that is simply thriving under these conditions. Royal Delta looks the best of those from the States with African Story an intriguing contender if seeing out this longer trip.

Get open access to Timeform data for just 2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!

Follow The Money: Sweet being backed to receive a winning Ovation

Lingfield is the venue for one of today's FTM selections

With temperatures starting to rise in some parts of the country we have three UK meetings this afternoon, with the Follow The Money team having a selection at each of Southwell, Lingfield and Wetherby...

We begin at Southwell for today's lay, which comes in the 7f maiden at 14:40. Free Island is available to back at 2.56/4 having been matched this morning at prices as low as 1.84/5. This filly made a promising start to her career at Beverly when second in a maiden, but hasn't really progressed as expected on the all-weather surfaces recently, twice being turned over at relatively short prices. Her latest third in a 6f Wolverhampton handicap reads well and the step up to 7f may well suit her, but there are several negatives which temper enthusiasm for James Tate's three-year-old. Today will be the first time the selection has raced on the Southwell fibresand. By contrast one of her rivals, Combustible, ran a cracker on this surface four days ago, going down only a length to the short-priced favourite Bispham Green, with the pair pulling well clear of the third placed horse. These factors along with the lack of market support suggest that Free Island may find one too good once again today.

Our next selection comes at Lingfield in the 6f handicap at 15:00, where Sweet Ovation has been well supported from 7.87/1 in to a current 5.39/2. Mark Usher's filly has been a little out of sorts recently but has slipped to a winning mark as a result - last February the selection won over course and distance off a mark of 60 and she races off 52 today. Mark Usher is 2-7 with his runners at Lingfield and with a reasonable draw and the booking of William Buick catching the eye, it may be worth backing Sweet Ovation to get back to winning ways today.

Our final selection comes at Wetherby in the 3m1f handicap chase at 16:30 where Rebel Swing has been backed in to 8.27/1 having been matched at prices as high as 12.5n/a. This seven-year-old gelding has run well at Wetherby before and stayed on well last time out to finish second at Newcastle in similar conditions. The handicapper wasn't too impressed however and dropped him two pounds for his efforts, leaving him on a mark of 107 - two pounds lower than when winning a better race than this at Carlisle in October. Sue Smith is in fine form, boasting a 36% strike rate at Wetherby this season and she looks to have Rebel Swing primed for a big run today.

Recommended Bets

Lay Free Island @ 2.56/4 14:40 Southwell
Back Sweet Ovation @ 5.39/2 15:00 Lingfield
Back Rebel Swing @ 8.27/1 16:30 Wetherby