Fighting Fifth Hurdle: Cinders tops final four

Caption: Cinders And Ashes on his way to Supreme Novices' glory

The defections of Darlan and Rock On Ruby leave a final field of just four declared runners, headed by last season's Supreme Novices' Hurdle hero Cinders And Ashes...

The five-year-old's trainer, Donald McCain, is bidding for a third successive victory in the Grade 1 contest following Peddlers Cross in 2010 and Overturn 12 months ago.

The Charles Byrnes-trained Trifolium, the mount of Andrew Lynch, was just a length and a half behind Cinders and Ashes when third at Cheltenham.

John Quinn's Triumph Hurdle winner Countrywide Flame reverts to hurdles having been narrowly denied in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket last month. He will be ridden by Denis O'Regan.

The field is completed by Brian Ellison's consistent handicapper Bothy, who was supplemented for the race on Monday.

Regarding the defection of Rock on Ruby, trainer Harry Fry said: "Unfortunately after the dreadful weather around the country the ground is bound to be very testing on Saturday. To run him first time on this type of going is not ideal."

"We will give the Fighting Fifth a miss and wait instead for Cheltenham a fortnight later."

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Spanish Football: Is Ronaldo's personal lust for honours hurting Real?

Ronaldo appears obsessed with winning personal honours

Ahead of Saturday's Madrid derby Jonathan Wilson looks at possible reasons why Real are not the force they were last season, with Cristiano Ronaldo's personal desires being one of them...

These are strange times in the Spanish capital. Not since they won the league in 1996 have Atletico Madrid finished above Real Madrid. They haven't even beaten them in a league game since 1999. The rivalry is about as one-sided as top-level rivalries get - and yet Atletico go into Saturday's Madrid derby fully eight points clear of Real.

Since that 1996 title, Atletico have redefined chaos in Spain, always shooting themselves in the foot, always conspiring to convert promise into preposterousness. But this time it's Real who are in disarray, Sunday's defeat to Real Betis - who had themselves been thrashed 5-1 by Sevilla the previous week - intensifying rumours that Jose Mourinho's time at the club is drawing to a close.

It's an extraordinary point to have reached. Last season, as Real won the title, it seemed Mourinho's attrition had done the trick, wearing Pep Guardiola down until he resigned, while the relentless accumulation of points finally broke Barcelona. With Barca appointing a new coach and, it was assumed, having to go through a process of transition, this should have been Real's free season; the year when they could canter to the title while focusing their real energies on the Champions League.

As it is, Real, when they're not putting four and five past teams, look exhausted. They have enough good individuals to hammer anybody but when the breakthrough fails to materialise early, they seem very quickly to run out of ideas and precision. They are not playing with the same tempo or intensity of last season and, without that, the structural flaws in their side are clear. This is a team that plays in patches. It's about a basic defensive structure and individual talents playing off it, not about the sort of team unit that bonds Barcelona.

Essentially there are two sorts of football: proactive and reactive. Barcelona follow the Ajax of Rinus Michels, the Dynamo Kyiv of Valeriy Lobanovskyi and the AC Milan of Arrigo Sacchi in being proactive. They want the ball, they control the ball. At times they may defend by having the ball, but it's all about them having the ball.

Real Madrid are far more reactive. Lobanovskyi spoke of the coalitions between players being more important than the players themselves. Football for him was about creating the shape that facilitated passing and the control of the ball when in possession, and presenting a shape that was hard for the opposition to penetrate when they had the ball. Barca are all about shape, and the ball zipping along metaphorical tunnels between players; at Real it's obvious that the players - and one in particular - are the most important thing.

It may be counterintuitive to blame Cristiano Ronaldo for their shaky start to the season but his endless lust for personal honours; his very evident desire to win the Balon d'Or and/or the Golden Boot seem almost to outweigh winning games, as though Real Madrid has become to him less a club that he serves in the quest for trophies than a vehicle for earning him individual honours.

Because he is an extraordinary player, he is afforded some slack, but his unwillingness to track or press the opposing full-back, Lukasz Piszczek, was a huge contributory factor in Real Madrid's defeat away to Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League, just as his defeat in the individual battle with Phillip Lahm cost Real in the Champions League semi-final against Bayern Munich last season.

Atletico, by contrast, although they rely for goals almost as much on Falcao as Real do on Ronaldo, are far more of a unit. The Atletico coach Diego Simeone has been influenced by Marcelo Bielsa - not as much as the likes of the new Chile coach Jorge Sampaoli or Gerardo Martino at Newell's - but enough that his midfield snaps with intent, presses and circulates the ball quickly.

All of the five points Atletico have dropped have come away from home, and Real have dropped only two at the Bernabeu, but Real are surely too short and worth laying at 1.491/2, a price that seems based on past history rather than recent form. Given Real have let in only three at home and Atletico's six away games have yielded a total of just 13 goals, Under 2.5 Goals at 2.8415/8 seems extremely tempting. The possibility of a Real rout is there, of course, but this looks the most interesting derby for years.

Gordon Elliott: The thoughts on my Thurles and Taunton runners

Gordon has a Plan for a winner at Thurles today

Cullentra House Stables have runners on both sides of the Irish Sea on Thursday including the last-time-out winner, Oscar Hill...

12.30 Thurles - Mae's Choice

On paper, her fourth place of six runners at Navan last time looks disappointing but in fairness, it was a grade two hurdle and we knew she would be up against it. This is her first chase but she's been schooling well and she likes the heavy ground so I'm expecting her to be thereabouts now that she's back down at a different class. As I said before, she's a tough enough mare and in the future, she's likely to appreciate the longer distances.

12.35 Taunton - Oscar Hill

This one ticks all the right boxes and if he runs a similar race as he did at Huntingdon, he should take all the beating. I mentioned previously that he likes going right-handed so the course will suit and Tom O'Brien, who rode him to victory last time out, is back on board once again. The headgear (hood) has worked well and I'll be disappointed to come home empty-handed.

13.00 Thurles - Plan A

He showed some promise when third to the useful Oscars Well in a beginners chase at Punchestown last month and that followed on from a nice race at Ballinrobe (2nd of 14 runners). He was very handy over hurdles in the past and with two good chases under the belt, we are satisfied that he has potential in that sphere. Mark Walsh knows the horse fairly well at this stage and I'm hoping he can run into a place at the least.

The Big Wednesday Multiple: Goals at the Lane

Luis Suarez - You either love him or you hate him

It's that time of the week for the big Wednesday multiple as Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Stuttgart (HOME) @ 1.65 (13/20)

Before we dive into a trio of Premier League matches, we begin this week's multiple in Germany as Stuttgart look good for a home victory over Augsburg.

After a fine campaign last year that saw them qualify for the Europa League, Stuttgart have struggled somewhat this term. They are down in 12th place with 16 points from 13 fixtures and they've won just once in front of their own fans. It's a bit of an odd one as Bruno Labbadia's side were excellent at the Mercedes-Benz Arena last season, however they should be able to get back on track tonight with the league's bottom club in town.

Augsborg prop up the table with a paltry seven points having recorded just one win thus far. They've lost four of their last five, and away from home they've mustered just two points from a possible 18. During that period they've managed only three goals and the two clean sheets they've kept were against the sides who currently occupy 15th and 16th place.

Bet 2: Arsenal (AWAY) @ 2.8 (9/5)

It's fifth v sixth at Goodison Park and while both sides come into the match on the back of disappointing draws, I think the Gunners look a tad overpriced at the current odds.

The enthusiasm about Everton's decent start to the season has been tempered somewhat by a run of disappointing results that has seen them win just one of their last seven. Early on in that run they could quite rightly be deemed unlucky with poor decisions and poor finishing going against them, however just lately, there haven't been many excuses. 

David Moyes' side were fortunate to get a point against Liverpool, deservedly beaten by Reading after a poor second half display and then, against Norwich on Saturday, they were held to a draw in what was a pretty dire affair. The Toffees will be boosted by the return of the suspended Marouane Fellaini, but Steven Pienaar and Nikica Jelavic are woefully out of form, and the defence has been littered with individual errors.

Arsenal aren't having the best of times either, but they did at least beat Spurs 5-2 recently and Theo Walcott has been declared fit after injury. His pace is badly missed when he doesn't play and Olivier Giroud thrives off his service. Arsene Wenger's men have won this fixture for the last three years and they should provide decent value for our away victory.

Bet 3: Tottenham v Liverpool (Over 2.5 goals) @  1.74 (37/50)

Our goal fest of the week comes from White Hart Lane as Spurs take on Liverpool.

I strongly fancy this one to be a high scoring affair despite the general observation that the Merseysider's struggle to find the net. Three of their six away games in the Premier League have gone over 2.5 so far this season, with two going over 3.5 and their trip to Carrow Road actually going over 6.5.

Luis Suarez is in sublime form and he now has the strength and directness of Jose Enrique to compliment the pace and skill of Raheem Sterling on either side of him

Spurs' matches have been amongst the goals lately; five of their last half dozen having had three or more, with scorelines such as 2-4, 5-2 and 3-1 amongst them. Gareth Bale is playing some superb stuff and with his, Jermain Defoe's and Clint Dempsey's penchant for shooting at every available opportunity. Pepe Reina is going to need to be at his absolute best.

Bet 4: Stoke v Newcastle (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.68 (17/25)

Thankfully this one wasn't chosen to be a televised game this evening as Stoke and Newcastle are likely to put on a drab affair.

All six of Stoke's home matches have gone under 2.5 goals this season, with four going under 1.5 and two even dipping under 0.5. The Potters defence have conceded just the one goal at the Britannia, and that was to defending champions, Manchester City.

Newcastle are in abysmal form; losing their last three in the Premier League and winless in four. Alan Pardew will point to the fact that he's had the distraction of the Europa League, along with key injuries and suspensions, but their performances have still not been good enough.

The Geordies last three on the road have all had three goals or less, and with Demba Ba the only player threatening to score, I can't see them getting much joy from Robert Huth and co. 

Recommended Multiple
Back Stuttgart @ 1.65 (13/20); Back Arsenal @ 2.8 (9/5); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Tottenham v Liverpool @ 1.74 (37/50); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Stoke v Newcastle @ 1.68 (17/25); The Multiple pays approximately 13.51 (25/2)

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2012 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 26 pts
Returned: 27.69 pts
P/L + 1.69 pts

Timeform Radio Tips: Wednesday November 28

Terry has two bets at Lingfield today.

Terry Norman is in action at Lingfield on Wednesday...

Betting opportunities are thin on the ground but Torres Del Paine (13:30 Lingfield) looks overpriced for this competitive sprint over 6f. The son of Compton Place is a Polytrack specialist (all his wins have come on the AW) so he would have been unsuited by the soft ground on his latest start at Goodwood in September. He had previously won a claimer over the trip. Torres Del Paine has since changed trainers - moving from Jimmy Fox to Brett Johnson  - but he has won off this mark of 75 in the past, has a perfect draw in stall one and is best of a fast pace that looks likely here. 

See The Storm (15:40 Lingfield) ran a stormer when narrowly touched off from a bad draw on his latest start. He is now 0 from 8 on the all weather but his latest effort (his best so far on the AW) was over today's trip of 7f. This is a poor 0-55 and, though Rogue Reporter has solid form at this moderate level, See The Storm has been consistent and has a decent draw in stall 4 to press forward.

Timeform Radio Tips 
Back Torres Del Paine @ 6.611/2 in the 13:30 at Lingfield
Back See The Storm @ 6.05/1 in the 15:40 at Lingfield 

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Opta Big Match Stats: Man City to clinically beat Wigan

Vincent Kompany shrugs off Fernando Torres on Sunday

Christian Crowther recommends three bets as the champions aim to equal last season's 14-game unbeaten start against Wigan...

Wigan v Manchester City (Wednesday 20:00, Sky Sports 2)

Manchester City have won six and lost none of their last seven Premier League games against Wigan
Wigan may have beaten Reading at the death on Saturday but, with Manchester City the next visitors at the DW Stadium, it's difficult to see another Jordi Gomez hat-trick making the headlines. The Latics have fared particularly badly against the champions in recent times as the above-mentioned stat highlights and, in that run of seven games, Wigan have only found the net once. In fact, they have failed to score in the last five, with last season's meetings producing a 1-0 Manchester City win in this fixture and a 3-0 at the Etihad Stadium. Four clean sheets in five league games for Roberto Mancini's side suggests it will be a mightily tough task for the hosts to penetrate here.

Carlos Tevez has scored four goals in five Premier League games for Man City against Wigan
After starting on the bench against Real Madrid and then Chelsea on Sunday, Carlos Tevez should be in line for a starting berth against Wigan. Especially if anyone has mentioned this particular stat which weighs in the Argentine's favour. This fixture coincided with Tevez's extended period of absence last season, though the season before that, he grabbed the opener in a 2-0 win. Although the controversial striker has been a little sporadic with his goalscoring this season, Mancini will be aware his last start rewarded the Italian with a brace against Aston Villa.

If City avoid defeat in this game they will match their unbeaten start of 14 unbeaten last season - only two teams (Arsenal twice and Man United) have gone on longer unbeaten runs at the start of a Premier League season
Manchester City will need no reminding they're nearing their unbeaten record from last season and surpassing it will surely be on the players' minds. For City, knowing that they then went on to win the title from a similarly robust start last time around makes equalling the feat an important psychological milestone to reach. As if the omens and recent history against the champions are not daunting enough for the home team to contend with, this extra motivational factor will only serve to make the Latics' task tougher. City have not pummelled opponents on the road, averaging only 1.17 goals per league game, though they have scored twice in three out of six away assignments.

Recommended Bets:
Back Manchester City to win to nil @ 2.8815/8
Back Carlos Tevez to score @ 2.11n/a
Back Manchester City to win 2-0 @ 9.28/1

Against All Odds: The Eagles to struggle up against The Little Zebras

Veteran striker Di Natale is still going strong with eight league goals

Lazio are odds-on for their clash with Udinese in Serie A tonight but with the away side having lost just one of their last six on the road, Paul Robinson thinks they are worth opposing.

Lazio are currently sixth in the table after picking up 23 points from their opening 13 fixtures. A win or a draw this evening would see them move to fifth above bitter rivals, Roma, but as it stands they are nine points adrift of Juventus at the top.

Vladimir Petkovi's side have been a touch out of form lately; one win in five, with two defeats, including a terrible 4-0 loss to Catania. The Eagles are much better at home than they are away though, four victories from six this term, however they are prone to the odd poor performance at Stadio Olimpico, as evidenced by the loss to Genoa and to a lesser extent, the draw with Torino.

Udinese have struggled this season and find themselves down in 12th place with 16 points. They haven't been losing that much, just three defeats, but they haven't been winning that many either. The Little Zebras have drawn over half of their games thus far, so while they are unlikely to earn a victory tonight, they certainly won't be a pushover. 

Francesco Guidolin's men are undefeated in six in the league now, and they've scored in every game from the start of October. Since a last gasp 2-1 loss to Fiorentina in their first away match of the season, Udinese have only suffered one further defeat, and that was by a narrow 2-1 scoreline to high flying Napoli.

Lazio are a very strong home team, but Udinese are very resilient, and I think the draw is a huge runner here. With that in mind, at odds of 1.9310/11 I have to make Lazio my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Lazio v Udinese @ 1.9310/11

2012 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 270 pts
Returned: 277.17 pts
P/L + 7.17 pts