вторник, 30 октября 2012 г.

NBA 2012/13: Western Conference preview

Dwight Howard will boost the Lakers this season

The much anticipated 2012-13 NBA season is finally upon us. Nick Shiambouros assesses the teams in the Western Conference and explains who he thinks will be in contention this year...

Los Angeles Lakers 4.3100/30
The new-look Lakers have plenty to look forward to this season. After months of procrastination, Dwight Howard finally made the move to
Tinseltown from Orlando. There's no doubt that he is the best center in the game and he will be a major force inside the painted area.
Veteran point-guard Steve Nash made the move from Phoenix and is a welcome addition to the lineup. He has outstanding court vision and
should provide plenty of easy scoring opportunities for Kobe Bryant. The Lakers have the squad to make a big run for the championship, provided that they come together as a team.

Oklahoma City Thunder 5.49/2
The Thunder were comprehensively beaten 4-1 by Miami in last year's NBA Finals, but they remain the team to beat in the west. This young rotation played some outstanding basketball last season but came up short against a stellar Miami team. Few changes were made during the off-season, which is good news for Oklahoma City. Kevin Durant and company are bound to make a bold bid for the title. I think the price on offer is more than fair.

San Antonio Spurs 22.021/1
Veteran center Tim Duncan returns with a three-year contract under his belt. At 36-years-old, Duncan will finish his career in San
Antonio. He would dearly love to win another title before he retires, but I think it is a tall order. This is a team with plenty of experience, but it lacks an explosive guard who can score heavily.

Los Angeles Clippers 27.026/1
Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are the backbone of this talented rotation. The Clippers should have a decent year. They signed Lamar
Odum from Dallas during the off-season, which should give them another dimension at power forward. The Clippers have underachieved for the past 20 years, but this rotation should make plenty of noise. All the pressure will be on coach Vinny Del Negro to deliver.

Denver Nuggets 60.059/1
The Nuggets are fun to watch but have yet to really break through in the west. They will almost certainly make the playoffs but lack the consistency to win overall. Point-guard Ty Lawson is the most talented player in the rotation.

Memphis Grizzlies 80.079/1
The Grizzlies upset San Antonio in the opening round of the playoffs last year. This was by no means a fluke, and Zach Randolph and company should have another productive year.

Minnesota Timberwolves 140.00139/1
Power forward Kevin Love is the cornerstone of this improving team. The Timberwolves are hoping to make the post-season, at the very
least. Point-guard Ricky Rubio is back from injury, along with Brandon Roy, who has come out of retirement to play in the Twin Cities.

Dallas Mavericks 150.00149/1
Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion are the only two starters to return. Point-guard Darren Collison was signed during the summer and will need a little time to adjust to his new surroundings. I think the Mavs will really struggle this season.

New Orleans Hornets 190.00189/1
The one bright light in New Orleans is rookie Anthony Davis, who is a huge talent. He is a star in the making and well worth the price of admission.

Golden State Warriors 210.00209/1
Coach Mark Jackson will be under close scrutiny this year. He needs to have a winning year, at the very least, to keep his job.

Utah Jazz 250.00249/1
This one is tough to fancy at any price.

Sacramento Kings 330.00329/1
Another losing year is on the cards, despite the presence of Tyreke Evans.

Phoenix Suns 420.00419/1
The Suns will struggle as a result of the departure of Steve Nash to the Lakers.

Portland Trailblazers 570.00569/1
This is a team in rebuilding mode.

Champions League T20 Final: Highveld Lions v Sydney Sixers

The Sixers' Michael Lumb

Sydney are the best side in the tournament and have to be backed, even at short prices, to triumph in Sunday's Champions League final, says Andy Tongue.

Live on Eurosport 2, 17:30

Venue/Conditions

Sides batting first have scored 150, 130, 143, 185, 157, 131 and 173 in the games played at the Wanderers (including the qualifying stage) so decent totals are certainly possible. The wickets have been pacey with decent bounce which unsettled the IPL sides but shouldn'tpose any issues for either of the finalists - Sydney's pace trio in particular will relish the chance to bowl on it. Unfortunately the forecast is for heavy rain and thunderstorms so we could struggle to get a game of any sort in. Organisers suddenly scheduled a reserveday at short notice for the semi-finals and it must be likely they do the same for the final, although the forecast is no better for Monday.

Highveld Lions

Playing in their backyard the Lions, who have surprised many by making it this far, should know the wicket and conditions better than their opponents. Gulam Bodi started slowly and struggled against the pace and bounce of Morne Morkel in their semi-final but hung in there and his 50 proved crucial. The match-winning innings came from Neil McKenzie, a 28-ball unbeaten knock of 46 runs, which enabled them to set a competitive total. Aaron Phangiso bowled beautifully again, taking 2-18 to give him tournament figures of 10 wickets for 89 runs from 20 overs. Chris Morris took 2-7 and has also chipped in with useful runs down the order.

Sydney Sixers

Our outright antepost tips at 8.615/2 have done us proud, winning five out of five to advance to the final. The semi-final was a close run thing though as they chased down 163 to squeeze past the Titans and prevent an all-South African final. Even without talismanic all-rounder Shane Watson, who was called home to rest by the Australian Cricket Board after their third win, they have a powerful batting line-up and powerful pace battery in Mitchell Starc (13 wickets already and almost certain to win the Golden Arm award), Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood. Mention must also go to all-rounder Moises Henriques, who has taken eight wickets and also contributed with the bat at vital moments.

Match Odds

We are going to go against the strategy of backing the outsiders where possible, which has served us so well (particularly against the over-rated IPL sides) and stick with the Sixers at 1.584/7. Their 100% win record clearly shows they are the best side in the competition, even without Watson, and the semi-final win demonstrated an ability to grind out a result if necessary. A rain-shortened game is always something of a lottery which would favour the Lions, who have been mighty impressive themselves, but we're not about to desert the Aussies.

Top Lions Batsman
Bodi is the tournament's leading run-scorer (202) but could be found out by the Sixers quicks so we prefer his nearest rival and team-mate McKenzie (176), who looks in devastating touch with the bat.

Top Sixers Batsman
The unheralded Michael Lumb is the Sixers' top scorer and has consistently got them off to decent sidesh at the top of the order.

Recommended Bet: Back Sixers to win at 1.584/7

Indian Grand Prix: Vettel on course for Grand Slam

Better get used to this view...

With Sebastian Vettel looking unbeatable in India, James Frankland takes us through the markets for the Indian Grand Prix.

Just as in tennis, Formula One has its own Grand Slam. For the Australian, French and US Opens, plus our very own Wimbledon, read pole position, victory, fastest race lap, and leading every lap of the race.

Another parallel with tennis is that the Formula One Grand Slam is incredidly hard to pull off. How many do you suppose 91-times Grand Prix winner Michael Schumacher has? 15? 20? 30? The answer, surprisingly given his extended period of dominance in the early 2000s, is just five.

Sebastian Vettel is a man with an eye on his place in F1 history. He already holds the records for youngest driver to take pole and win the same race (Monza 2008), to take pole and set fastest lap on his way to victory in the 2009 British Grand Prix, and, last year at the Indian Grand Prix, Vettel took his first Grand Slam. His second came a month ago in Japan and, such is his dominance on the Buddh International Circuit, that we could well see his third this weekend.

When I've discussed the market for pole, fastest lap and winner previously, the odds have normally been in the region of 4.03/1 to 5.04/1. The best you can get on Vettel to record a dominant win this weekend is 2.84n/a, markedly better than 1.43n/a in the Race Winner market. Such is the expectation that Vettel will streak off into the distance that the second-placed driver, Mark Webber in the sister Red Bull, is available at 12.0n/a. The last time I recall odds this high for a front-row starter was Pastor Maldonado in Barcelona. You can also back Webber to follow Vettel home at 2.2n/a in the Forecast market.

With the expectation that Red Bull will be in a race of their own, the podium finish market is a little more interesting. Lewis Hamilton starts third but seems to have gone off the boil slightly since his move to Mercedes was announced, so I expect either Jenson Button 2.66n/a or Fernando Alonso 2.68n/a to lift the final trophy. You can expect an all-out attack from Alonso but I'm not sure the Ferrari has the pace to live with the McLarens - they were resorting to Alonso slipstreaming Massa in qualifying to gain extra speed on the 1.2km back straight - so I'd look at Jenson.

Sauber are on a charge for fifth place in the Constructor's title and are well-placed to outscore Mercedes here, with Sergio Perez starting eighth. There's rumours of a one-stopper being possible in the race tomorrow, which will play right into Perez' hands, so back him at 2.6n/a to make up at least two places and get into the top six.

Recommended Bets
Sebastian Vettel to win and set fastest lap @ 2.84n/a
Jenson Button to finish on the podium @ 2.66n/a
Sergio Perez to finish in the top six @ 2.6n/a

Breeders' Cup Memories: High Chaparral

From left to right: Johar, High Chaparral and Falbrav after they crossed the line in the 2003 Breeders' Cup Turf

Timeform look back at the unforgettable 2003 renewal of the Breeders' Cup Turf.

You wouldn't call Aidan O'Brien's relationship with the Breeders' Cup an obsession, though unrequited love might be a good analogy. Rock of Gibraltar's unlucky defeat in the 2002 Mile, George Washington's tragic end in the 2007 Classic and Henrythenavigator's loss to Raven's Pass in the same race a year later all stand out.

In these 'darker days', even O'Brien's great Breeders' Cup success story, High Chaparral, didn't have luck entirely on his side. He arrived at the 2003 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita in much the same way as he had the previous year at Arlington, off the back of a third-placed finish in the Arc which would be his only defeat of the season, but this time the competition was tougher. Where High Chaparral had been an odds-on favourite for the 2002 Breeders' Cup Turf, in 2003 he had Storming Home and Sulamani (first past the post and official winner respectively of that year's Arlington Million) ahead of him in the betting, as well as Falbrav, whom he'd beaten in the Irish Champion Stakes before Longchamp.

The 2003 Breeders' Cup Turf has been called 'The race of the decade' in several outlets and it's not difficult to see why. There was early drama with Sulamani and Storming Home both involved in scrimmaging at the start of the final circuit, the former never landing a blow and the latter looking a threat turning in before he faded. It was at around that stage that Falbrav, winner of the QEII on his previous start, was sent for home by Darryll Holland in an attempt to make best use of his speed. High Chaparral was quickly sent in pursuit, but could only erode the lead initially before Falbrav started to tie up slightly inside the last. Then, out of nowhere, a relatively unfancied American runner named Johar appeared down the outside; he'd been last for much of the race and had only come into view with a quick move around the field on the home turn.

As High Chaparral drew upsides Falbrav no more than 50 yards from the line, it looked as though Johar's finishing rattle would be in vain. When the trio passed the winning post, with Falbrav clearly third, it still didn't look as though Johar had got there. He had- sort of.

Even taking away the subjective 'Best Race of...' debates, the 2003 Breeders' Cup Turf will forever have a place in history as the first ever dead-heat at the Breeders' Cup. To call a Breeders' Cup dead-heater 'unlucky' might be stretching things, but when you consider that, by whatever measure you choose, Johar never got near that performance before or after (he was tailed off in the Japan Cup on his only subsequent start before embarking on a so-far unspectacular career as a stallion), High Chaparral's connections must still wonder how they came to merely share the spoils in one of the the great Flat races.

Capital One Cup: Expect Arsenal to progress as Arsene eyes silverware

Wenger has watched some abject Arsenal performances in recent weeks - has he got his eyes on Capital One Cup glory?

Arsenal should ease past Reading in the Capital One Cup with the likelihood of goals at the Madejski, says Andy Tongue

Live on Sky Sports Two
Kick-off 19:45

Arsene Wenger may have claimed at last week's Annual General Meeting that potential signings aren't interested in winning the League Cup but he'll be desperate to progress to the quarter-finals away to Reading on Tuesday night.

As ever, in what is now known as the Capital One Cup, the key to successful punting is knowing what strength sides the two teams will be putting out.

While still using the competition to blood his never-ending conveyer belt of young talent, Wenger has noticeably drafted in bigger names at earlier stages over the past two or three seasons with the likes of Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Olivier Giroud and Andrey Arshavin all starting at home to Coventry in the previous round.

After the setbacks against Norwich and Schalke, the Gunners ground out a win at home to QPR on Saturday and Wenger will want another confidence-building display ahead of Saturday's daunting lunchtime trip to renew acquaintance with a certain Mr Van Persie at Old Trafford.

Reading are without a win in the Premiership but sides in that situation can often find some relief in the Cup and play with a degree of freedom impossible in the Premier League dogfight that they find themselves in-even at this early stage of the season. Surprisingly for a promoted side, goals haven't necessarily been a problem for Brian McDonald's men but they have leaked more than he would like at the other end of the pitch. With a huge game at QPR on Sunday, they are likely to make a few changes of their own and will try to play football which suits the visitors, who as we know tend to struggle against the more physical sides.

Arsenal are available at just a shade under evens at 1.910/11 and, expecting a relatively strong side to be put out, that's certainly good enough to tempt us in.

But with Reading in decent enough attacking form themselves goals are to be expected, so we'll also back both sides to score and over 3.5 goals in the expectation of an entertaining match for the televised audience, but one that sees Wenger's men march on into the last eight of the tournament he professes to care little for.

Best Bet
Back Arsenal at 1.910/11
Other Recommended Bets
Back both sides to score at 1.674/6
Back Over 3.5 goals at 2.942/1

Capital One Cup Tips: Boro can pull off a mini upset in North East showdown

Can the Boro boys get one over on local rivals Sunderland?

Andy Tongue predicts more woe for Martin O'Neill's Sunderland at home to Middlesbrough, in the pick of the night's Capital One Cup action

The evening's Capital One Cup programme promises five games with plenty of intrigue and potential punting angles. I've previewed Reading v Arsenal in depth, but there is plenty of value to be found in the other fixtures.

The game that catches the eye is the tasty North-East derby between Sunderland and Middlesbrough at the Stadium of Light.

The home side have won just once this season, drawing six times and losing once, but the key stat is they have scored only six goals in nine games. Steven Fletcher has scored five of them so stop him and you can stop Martin O'Neill's men. They won comfortably enough at MK Dons in the third round but Boro are a step up from those opponents, climbing nicely into third place in the Championship after Saturday's win at home to Bolton.

They will be roared on by a decent following from Teeside and have to be backed to take something from the game. A Boro win at 5.59/2 is tempting but we'll settle for laying the home side at a skinny 1.75/7 with high hopes of getting paid out.

Aston Villa were disappointing again at home to Norwich on Saturday and ended up hanging up for a point having been reduced to ten men. Paolo di Canio's Swindon are going well enough in League One and while Paul Lambert is expected to put out a strong side for Villa, there are enough issues in their camp currently (Darren Bent's alleged falling-out with the boss to the fore) for the visitors to be a lay at 2.3411/8.

Leeds entertain Southampton having disposed of Everton at Elland Road in the last round and will fancy their chances of claiming another Premier League scalp in the form of the struggling Saints.

But a skinny price of 2.6213/8 for a home win suggests that is more than factored into the price, so we'll look elsewhere for a recommended bet. Before Saturday's 1-0 home defeat to Birmingham, Leeds had scored in every home game this season and we expect them to get on the scoresheet against the visitors' leaky defence. Nigel Adkins men have scored freely enough themselves despite their travails thus far so both teams to score looks nailed on in this one.

The final game of the evening sees Wigan at home to Bradford and we'd expect a fairly comfortable home win for Roberto Martinez's side against a side who have already been beaten five times in League Two this season. But at 1.32 the Latics seemed priced about right so it's one to add to your multiple rather than bet on individually for us.

Best Bet
Lay Sunderland at 1.75/7

Other Recommended Bets
Lay Aston Villa at 2.3411/8

Leeds vs Southampton. Back both teams to score at 1.538/15

Breeders' Cup Memories: Curlin

Curlin wins the 2007 Classic.

Timeform look back at the career of Curlin, with the focus being on his 2007 success in the Breeders' Cup Classic...

Voted US Horse of the Year in both 2007 and 2008, Curlin equalled or surpassed a Timeform performance rating of 130 on four separate occasions, with the 2007 Breeder's Cup Classic featuring on that list.

A very representative field, comprising the US top five three-year-old males and the top older horse of that year, Curlin left his rivals trailing in the straight to become the first three-year-old since Tiznow seven years previously to land the Classic. A race likely to be more memorable in European eyes for the fatal injury sustained by the highly talented, if slightly quirky, George Washington, the achievements of Curlin on just his ninth appearance ought not to be overlooked.

Arguably making the victory all the more impressive was that it came on the back of a long and tough first season, as he was unraced as a two-year-old. Curlin entered the winners' enclosure on five of the previous eight occasions, with victories including the Grade 1 Preakness, the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby and the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes, but also contested, and finished second and third respectively in, the Belmont Stakes and the Kentucky Derby.

Curlin would go on to race another full season, his destruction of the opposition in the Dubai World Cup, which represented his best performance on Timeform ratings, perhaps the highlight, and he would conclude his glittering career with a respectable fourth to Raven's Pass in the 2008 Classic, somewhat confirming the impression that he simply wasn't in the same form as the previous year. He made a brave attempt nonetheless on his first start on a synthetic track, a surface unlikely to play to his strengths, but he retired as the leading US-trained money-earner with total earnings of $10, 501, 800.

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