Is there a profit to be made in the Championship?

Is there a profit to be made in the Championship?

By Charlie Rowing Nov 13, 2013

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The Championship may not have the glamour and profile of the Premier League, but for a soccer bettor the second tier in England offers a great potential opportunity to make a profit. Read on to learn more about Championship soccer betting at Pinnacle Sports.

Team parity: Opportunity to make a Championship profit

The Championship is regarded as a tough league because of its competitive nature created due to the 24 teams’ relative parity. The phrase ‘anybody can beat anybody’ is often banded about in the Championship.

Bettors should be interested to see if this statement has merit. We looked at the data for the 2012/13 Championship season to see how often underdogs prevailed over the favourites.

Interestingly if you had bet 10 on the underdog to win each game in the Championship last season, you would have made a profit of 786.50.

Despite being relegated by one-point, Peterborough were the most successful -13 wins – team as underdogs last season. In addition Watford upset the odds on 12 occasions, while Barnsley, Charlton, Huddersfield and Ipswich all contributed 11 wins each as outsiders.

Another point highlighting the strength of the teams in the Championship is the performance of the teams relegated from the Premier League the season before. Over the past five seasons those who have been relegated have averaged a position of 8th the following year. Four of the 15 teams have gained promotion at the first attempt. Interestingly, only six teams (including the four) have ever been back to the Premier League since their relegation, while Wolves suffered back-to-back relegations last season.

Because the relative strength of each team is so similar, there is an opportunity to make a profit in Championship betting by conducting extensive research rather than simply backing the favourite. However, as the data sample is small it is advisable to conduct research over five seasons to eradicate any results that may have skewed the data.

Championship format

The Championship is renowned for its excitement as 24 teams compete for the ultimate prize of promotion to the Premier League, which can be worth as much as 90 million.

At the end of the 46-game season the top two teams are automatically promoted, while the teams finishing between third and sixth qualify for the playoffs, and the bottom three are relegated to League 1.

The Championship Playoffs create additional anticipation at the end of the season as the four teams compete in two-legged semi finals. The winners then compete at Wembley in the final, with the victor gaining promotion to the Premier League.

How to bet on the Championship

There are a number of ways to bet on the Championship with Pinnacle Sports. Bettors have the opportunity to mix up their bets with a variety of different betting formats such as:

1×2 Championship Betting

This is the most common bet type. You simply bet on whether a team will win, lose or draw a match.

For example, imagine these odds are for a Championship match between QPR (1.990) and Brighton (4.100) with the draw at 3.570.

If QPR won the match and you staked 10 on them to win, you would have won 19.90– although that would include your initial 10 stake. Therefore your profit would be 9.90. If QPR had been beaten or drew, you would have won nothing and lost your initial 10 stake.

Handicap Championship Betting

Handicaps are useful when one team is heavily favoured over the other, as you can bet on who will win a match, with a set number of goals taken off the favourite’s score.

Let’s say the handicap for QPR is -0.5 goals (1.990) and Brighton is +0.5 goals (1.962). If the game ended 1-0 to QPR, then a bet on them would win as 1-0 covers the -0.5 handicap.

If the result was a draw, or a loss for QPR then a bet on Brighton would win as they would cover their +0.5 handicap.

Totals Championship Betting

The Totals market sees the bettor predict whether the total number of goals for a match will be over or under a set amount.

Imagine the total goal mark for QPR vs. Brighton is set at Over 2 and 2.5 goals (1.877) and Under 2 and 2.5 goals (2.020).

If you bet 10 on the game to be Over 2 and 2.5 goals – and the result was 2-1 (a total of three goals) you would have a return of 18.77 (8.77 profit), while you would have won nothing if you had bet on the goals total to be Under 2 and 2.5.

Click here to see the latest Championship odds.

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What are the World Cup Qualifying Playoff trends?

What are the World Cup Qualifying Playoff trends?

By Michael Gales Nov 12, 2013

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Ahead of the World Cup Qualifying Playoff’s on 15th & 19th November we look at what trends have preceded the four previous campaigns. Is there a benefit playing at home second, how rare are goals and how often has a tie gone to extra time?

Is there a benefit playing away first?

We are often told that it’s better to play at home in the second-leg of any knockout tournament, and it’s no different in the World Cup qualifying playoffs. But is this second-leg advantage simply a misconception?

Yes. We have already quashed this phenomenon in an article that looks at the misconception in the Champions League knockout stages. Looking at the past four World Cup qualifying playoffs in Europe 53% of nations playing at home second qualified for the World Cup. The data range is very small however, given there have been only15 European World Cup Qualifying playoff games.

The odds back up the data as they suggest two nations – Portugal (1.575*) and Greece (1.763*) – are favourites to qualify playing their first-leg at home, while Croatia (1.227*) and France (1.351*) are fancied to finish the job at home in the second-leg, which is more about the strength of the nation.

How have the best & worst qualifiers performed?

Once the top teams of qualifying have been decided, the best runners-up progress to the playoffs. Are the teams who qualified second with the most and least points more or less likely to progress?

In the four previous World Cup qualifying campaigns the team to qualify for the playoffs with the worst record has failed to progress, while only Italy and the Czech Republic in 1998 and 2006 respectively have been the best qualifiers and progressed through the playoffs. And in Italy’s case won in 2006.

Croatia were the worst qualifiers this year but are favourites to become the first team to progress when they play Iceland, while Greece are also favoured to beat Romania after finishing top of the playoff qualifiers.

Are the playoffs a goal fest?

With so much at stake in World Cup qualifying playoffs one could assume that they are tight affairs. However there have been on average 18 goals per year, at an average of 2.46 goals per leg, nearly five per tie.

Since 1998 the number of goals during the playoffs has reduced year-on-year at a high of 25 goals in 1998 – skewed by Yugoslavia’s 12-1 aggregate win against Hungary – to just ten goals in 2010.

In 30 World Cup qualifying playoff games there has been just one goalless draw – Greece’s 0-0 at home to Ukraine in 2010 – and 17 cleansheets at an average of 4.25 per tournament.

Is there a need for extra time, penalties & away games?

Bettors who are betting on the second-leg should be aware that no European World Cup qualifying playoff game has been decided by a penalty shoot-out.

It is also worth noting that the 2010 tie between Ireland and France has been the only tie to be decided by extra time, and only two previous ties have been settled by away goals.

Will experience be key?

We looked at the last four World Cup qualifying and European playoffs to look at the eight teams’ historic performances in playoffs.

Aside from Sweden and Iceland all nations have been involved at least once in a playoff format for either a World Cup or European Championships.

Portugal (2 tournaments) have a 100% record in playoffs alongside France (1), Greece (1) and Croatia (3). In comparison Romania lost their only World Cup qualifying playoff in 2002, while Ukraine have been cursed in playoff games; losing all four ties.

These World Cup Qualifying Playoff trends should be considered but not relied on – the data range as mentioned is small – in addition to a bettors own research to give them a improved chance of making a profit on 2014 World Cup Qualifying Playoff betting.

Click here to see the latest World Cup qualifying playoff odds.

*Odds subject to change

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Could Hendricks be GSP’s greatest challenge at UFC 167?

Could Hendricks be GSP’s greatest challenge at UFC 167?

By Michael Gales Nov 7, 2013

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George St. Pierre has dominated the welterweight division since 2007 but in #1 contender Johny Hendricks, he is potentially facing the greatest threat to his crown. The article looks at factors to consider when betting the UFC 167 main event on November 16th.

Striking: Accuracy vs. Power

Should this fight stay on the feet, it will be a study in contrasting styles. St. Pierre generally uses his striking for scoring points and controlling range, landing more strikes than his opponents in each of his last 11 fights. His strikes landed count has increased dramatically over time, averaging 93 landed strikes per fight over his last four encounters. By contrast, his opponents have averaged 43 per fight, a number that would be lower if Jake Shields hadn’t landed 49 of his 73 strikes landed against GSP after the champion temporarily lost sight in one eye in the third round of the their 5-round fight.

Three of Hendricks’ last six matches have ended with first-round knockouts

Hendricks doesn’t have St. Pierre’s striking volume or accuracy, but what he does have is a left hand that’s made him one of the most-feared single-punch knockout artists in the sport. Three of Hendricks’ last six matches have ended with first-round knockouts, which may make up for the lower volume of strikes landed he produces.

St. Pierre may have the advantage standing because his 7″ reach benefit makes it difficult for his opponents to connect. Those rivals have only landed one of every four strikes, while Hendricks has been connected with 42% of the time. Of course, Hendricks may only need to land once, and he’s shown a remarkable chin in his time in the octagon.

Wrestling: Tough task taking GSP down

Hendricks’ knockout power is daunting in large part because he constantly offers the threat of taking down his opponents. In his last fight against Carlos Condit (also a former GSP challenger), Hendricks scored a remarkable 12 takedowns in earning the unanimous decision. That number skews his averages to an extent, but throughout his career he has scored a takedown in every two attempts, and there have been a lot of attempts (5.52 per 15 minutes).

The problem Hendricks faces is that GSP is no Condit. St. Pierre has successfully defended 6/7 takedown attempts against him for his career (Condit just 2/5) and has only been taken down once in his last 6 fights. Even against fellow wrestlers Josh Koscheck (4-1), Jon Fitch (7-0) and Hughes (3-0), he’s dominated takedowns for/against, though none of those men offered the threat of Hendricks’ left hand to distract from the wrestling.

Both fighters tend to prefer ground control to submissions. Hendricks hasn’t attempted a submission in any of his UFC decision victories and has only scored one submission in his career. His defense against submissions was tested to a degree against Condit, but not from his back.

GSP hasn’t made many submission attempts during his championship reign, but he went for 6 of them against Dan Hardy, whose jiu-jitsu was similarly untested. If GSP gets Hendricks on his back, he may attempt the finish.

Experience could be key for GSP

With victories over Condit, Koscheck and Fitch Hendricks has done a good job of duplicating GSP’s feats as they’ve been put in front of him, but he can’t match St. Pierre’s experience. This may factor in a couple of ways.

First, Hendricks has never gone 5 rounds. Part of the reason St. Pierre has moved to a more controlled striking game is because of the endurance test a 5-round fight represents. In fact, he’s so enamored by the endurance test that he’s seen his last 6 fights go the duration, winning all 6 by unanimous decision. Hendricks trying too hard for the first round knockout could prove dangerous because of the duration of the fallout if he fails.

Secondly, Hendricks has never fought on this kind of stage. Hendricks has never gone 5 rounds because he’s never fought in a main event. That means he’s never carried the media duties of fight week and never been the centre of attention for a card, a completely different kind of pressure than fighters are otherwise accustomed to.

Will that pressure get to Hendricks? Or will one well-placed strike see St. Pierre’s reign come to an end?

Get the best UFC St-Pierre vs. Hendricks 167 odds here.

*Odds subject to change

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Examining historic handicap data for Man United vs. Arsenal

Examining historic handicap data for Man United vs. Arsenal

By Michael Gales Nov 7, 2013

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Arsenal have won just three times in the EPL under Arsene Wenger at Old Trafford. However, this season Arsenal have covered 80% on the road, while United have failed to cover at home. So what is more relevant for handicap betting, recent form or historic head-to-head trends? Read on to find out.

Are United under-performing and therefore overvalued?

After three consecutive Premier League victories, Manchester United 2.300* are finally displaying the kind of form that saw them win the EPL by 11-points last season.

Nevertheless, David Moyes has struggled since taking on the unenviable task of replacing Sir Alex Ferguson as manager. Three defeats and two draws from their ten EPL games this season has left United languishing in eighth place and eight points behind leaders Arsenal.

Man Utd have failed to cover the spread at Old Trafford this season

United’s poor start to the season is also reflected in their form against the handicap highlighted in the Pinnacle Sports’ EPL handicap table. The Reds have the second worst record at covering the spread this season, having covered in just 20% of games including the remarkable statistic that the Red Devils have failed to cover at Old Trafford at all this season- compared to covering 37.5% of games at home last season, winning 75% of the time.

So are bookmakers underestimating the impact Ferguson had on United, are they overvaluing their squad strength based on last season or are United simply under-performing under Moyes? United’s handicap for the game is set at 0 and -0.5 (1.990*).

Arsenal have covered 80% of EPL games on the road

In contrast to United, Arsenal 3.330* have made a storming start to the season, which continued with wins at home against Liverpool on November 2nd and on the road against Dortmund in midweek (Nov 6th). The Gunners are five-points clear at the top of the Premier League, top of their Champions league group and top of Pinnacle Sports’ handicap table.

Arsene Wenger’s team has covered in 80% of EPL games this season, 20% more than anyone else – failing to cover just twice.

On the road the Gunners are unbeaten in 14 games in all competitions, winning an incredible 85% of games since they last tasted defeat at rivals Tottenham back in March.

Compared to last season, away from the Emirates, Arsenal have covered the spread 80% of the time – 30% more.

This highlights that Arsenal have continued to over perform against the handicap this season, however the game at Old Trafford is Arsenal’s first real test away from home this season in the EPL, and they have a poor long term record at Old Trafford.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal:  Head-to-head at Old Trafford

Man Utd vs Arsenal: Against the spread at Old Trafford

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

Result

04/13/2008

Man Utd

-0.5

2-1

05/16/2009

Arsenal

-1

0-0

08/29/2009

Man Utd

-0.25

2-1

12/13/2010

Man Utd

0

1-0

08/28/2011

Man Utd

-1.25

8-2

11/03/2012

Man Utd

-0.75

2-1

Since Wenger took charge of Arsenal in October 1996 he has won just three of 17 Premier League games at Old Trafford.

Against the handicap Arsenal have covered only once in six years, and haven’t won at Old Trafford since 2006.

With the handicap for Arsenal set at 0 & +0.5 (1.952*) bettors must decide if in the context of their recent excellent handicap form but poor history at the Theatre of Dreams, whether the Gunners are over or undervalued? Perhaps the bookmakers are unsure of both teams’ reflective abilities and erring on the side of caution? Either way it offers an opportunity for savvy bettors to make a profit.

Click here to see the best Manchester United vs. Arsenal odds.

*Odds subject to change

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How map knowledge can help bettors turn a profit in Starcraft 2

How map knowledge can help bettors turn a profit in Starcraft 2

By Montse Garcia Nov 6, 2013

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By understanding how maps are chosen in tournament formats, bettors can find an edge in Starcraft 2 matches. This article explores how bettors can use this knowledge to turn a profit.

How understanding maps can give you an edge in Starcraft 2

When judging a player’s chances to win a match, there are several things bettors should consider: skill, form, strength in that particular match-up, state of the races, external factors (such as fatigue, health issues, etc.) and the maps in which the games will be played.

In our previous article concerning Starcraft 2 maps, we discussed how pro-player’s believed maps could affect their matches. On average, the Pros believed that in an even game, they could gain as much as a six percent advantage over their adversary with a favourable map. Pinnacle’s margin in Starcraft 2 is 3.84% total. Therefore a six percent impact on the perceived odds is significantly bigger than the margin. By understanding and recognising this early enough would give the bettor an opportunity to gain an edge over the bookmaker.

Pre-knowledge and Map Pool strategy

Now let’s look into tournaments and maps. Bettors can break tournaments, leagues or matches into two categories: those they know the maps and their order, and those where they simply know the map pool and the number of games that will be played in each series.

By having knowledge of the maps used prior to the series, bettors have a distinct advantage, and betting on the handicap presents an excellent opportunity to find an edge. After determining a favourite, and by understanding which maps suit which team prior to the start, bettors can alter a players perceived chances for that game.

In contrast, there are tournaments that state the map pool but not necessarily the maps each match will be played on. When betting on these events, understanding the map selection mechanics can help the bettor evaluate not only players’ but each races’ chances. Normally two players will partake in a veto process whereby they are given the map pool and each player alternatively bans a map until the required number of maps for that series is remaining.

Bettors who are familiar with the available maps and understanding which are favoured by each race can help them understand which games will be the chosen for a certain series, allowing them to adjust their perception of the odds for each player.

By understanding which race the map pool favours, the bettor will be in a better position to pick an outright winner.

As is commonly said, information is power, and understanding the intricacies of maps and the role they play, can definitively help eSports bettors find an edge when betting in Starcraft 2.

Click here for the latest Starcraft 2 odds.

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Can Napoli inflict just a second home defeat on Juventus since January?

Can Napoli inflict just a second home defeat on Juventus since January?

By Charlie Rowing Nov 6, 2013

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Two in-form Serie A teams – Juventus and Napoli – go head-to-head in Turin this weekend, with both having identical records sitting just three-points off the top. Can Napoli inflict only a second home Serie A defeat on Juventus since January?

Napoli’s positive momentum

Napoli finished second behind Juventus in Serie A last season. Despite selling prize asset Edinson Cavani in the summer, they spent over 75million and appointed Rafa Benitez as manager.

Napoli have won 80% of their away games this season

Under Benitez they have made a solid start to Serie A with their solitary loss coming away to leaders Roma. With that said the Azzurri have the second best away record this season winning 80% of their games.

Napoli have scored 24 goals – 3rd highest in Serie A – and are also solid at the back, conceding just eight – 2nd best defence. On the road the Partenopei have kept just one cleansheet and score on average 2 goals per game. They are available at 5.590* to win at Juventus.

Conte steadying the ship

Despite winning back-to-back Scudetto’s and sitting joint-second, Juventus’ players have been criticised this season for a lack of intensity.

With their team built around a solid defence Juve conceded just 44 goals in their two title-winning seasons (which equates to 0.57 per game) however 11 games into this campaign they have already leaked in 10 goals – 1.1 goals per game.

Manager Antonio Conte questioned his players’ attitude and motivation after throwing away a 2-0 lead against Fiorentina in week 8. Since that defeat though, Juventus have won thee games against Genoa, Catania and Parma without conceding.

At home Juventus 1.735* have a 100% record and have not tasted defeat at the Juventus stadium in their last 14 Serie A matches. In their five home games this season they have averaged three goals per game, while they have kept a clean sheet in 40% of the games.

Juventus vs. Napoli: Head-to-Head record

Juventus have won the previous two encounters in Turin without conceding – Juventus are at -0.5 and -1 at 1.952* on the handicap – while Napoli have beaten the Old Lady just once in the past 12 years – a 2-3 win back in 2009.

Interestingly there hasn’t been a goalless draw between the two teams in Serie A since 1997 and none in Turin for over 20 years. Despite this, 25% of the last 12 games have ended in a draw – the draw is offered at 3.770*.

This feisty fixture often produces goals with 66% of the last 12 seeing more than 2 goals per game, while 50% have gone over 3 per game. Over 2.5 goals is set at 1.909*, while the under is available at 2.010*

Before betting, bettors should consider whether or not Juventus’ home record is more formidable than the attacking presence and away form of Napoli.

Click here to see the latest Juventus vs Napoli odds.

*Odds subject to change

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How a Starcraft 2 map can improve players’ chances of winning

How a Starcraft 2 map can improve players’ chances of winning

By Montse Garcia Nov 6, 2013

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Knowledge of maps is essential in the Starcraft 2 universe, influencing not only strategy but the chances of a players victory. This article explores how understanding the effects of a specific Starcraft 2 map can increase a bettor’s chance of winning – and asks current and exStarcraft professionals their opinions.

How a map can affect Starcraft 2 games?

A look into Starcraft 2 history shows that map building has evolved – they are now considerably more balanced than in the early days of Wings of Liberty. While in the early releases arenas like Jungle Basin or the infamous Lost Temple, allowed the Terran to dominate by dropping on the high ground and forcing the Zerg to use a 1 Base Muta tactic to have any chance of dealing with it.

Nevertheless, today’s maps still have certain strategies that are more viable than others, and favour some races over others in certain match-ups. There are several ways in which a map affects the game, typically including the strategy that should be employed. Variables such as the distance between bases or how open the natural is can severely alter the effectivness of differing startegies.

Certain maps favour certain races

The construction of the main base can also play a role in the dynamics of the game. An example would be Protoss-favouring maps with little or no space behind their base, as it makes them less vulnerable to Terran drops or Muta Harass by the Zerg.

Talking about expansions, it’s important to look at how easy it is for certain races to take and defend them, which is dictated by how an expansion is built, the distance to the main base or the entrance leading to it. For example, Protoss would tend to favour maps where they don’t run into much trouble to take a third base against Terran.

Map & Race relationships

Understanding map and race relationship is vital for Starcraft 2 betting. Zergs like big wide open spaces. Maps with room to move around in their natural and third base – and in general throughout the map – are optimal for this race. They look for maps where bases are far away from each other, which allows Muta Harass against Terran forces be considerably more effective.

The Protoss race prefer very narrow and small hallways and entrances. Small paths around the map and small entrances increase the power of critical Protoss tools such as force fields. They like having their bases close to each other, to make the task of defending them an easier one.

The Terran race is trickier, as they play very differently against Zerg than against Protoss, so a map that is favourable for them in one match-up might not be the best in another.  Learning these differences – no matter how small – are very important for esports betting.

How a map affects players’ chances of winning

We asked six current and former Starcraft 2 pro-players – monchi, KnowMe, MaddeLisk, Socke, DarKFoRcE and KrasS – whether if they were playing an evenly-skilled player on a map of their choice: how much would your chances of winning improve?

On average, the Starcraft 2 Pros believe their chances of victory would improve by 6% from 50% to 56%. Therefore a match that hypothetically begins 50/50 can – in the opinion of the players – dramatically change to 56/44 based on the map selected. Therefore knowing which players favour which maps is also vital.

Also worth noting is German Terran Andreas “KrasS” Ullrich’s comment, which was that this edge can be even bigger in certain match-ups. If he could pick the map, he states his TvZ chances of winning against a Zerg of equal skill would improve to a huge 70%.

While certain maps can be considered quite balanced, in general we can affirm that maps are a key factor that affect the way a game plays out. Understanding the elements that could favour a race over another in a particular match-up could help bettors judge the players’ chances of victory more accurately.

Click here for the latest Starcraft 2 odds.

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