Jonathan Roy Tops Field of 1,173, Wins WPT Montreal

Jonathan Roy wins massive WPT Montreal event (Photo: CanadaPoker.com)

It has been an historic couple of weeks for poker in Canada, with the World Series of Poker Circuit recently making its first ever stop in Vancouver and the World Poker Tour triumphantly returning to Canada for this week's WPT Montreal event. Both tournaments saw fields of more than 1,000 players participate, and in both cases local players took the titles, with John Crncic of Vancouver winning the WSOP-C event and Jonathan Roy of Boucherville (a Montreal suburb) winning WPT Montreal.

We reported on Crncic's victory here a couple of weeks ago in which he overcame a field of 1,032 at the River Rock Casino Resort in Vancouver to win a WSOP-C ring and $288,382 first prize in the $1,675 buy-in Main Event. Crncic also earned a spot in the 2012-13 WSOP National Championship that will take place at the conclusion of the current season in May 2013 at Harrah's New Orleans.

Whereas the WSOP-C event in Vancouver saw mostly Canadians take part -- and a final table comprised solely of Canadian players -- the WPT event in Montreal attracted many players from the United States and around the world.

It was the first time the WPT has visited Canada since 2008, and a whopping 1,173 players entered WPT Montreal at the Playground Poker Club in nearby Kahnawake, well exceeding expectations for the event. With a $3,000 buy-in (Canadian dollars, worth just slightly more than USD), the prize pool added up to $3,412,930 (C$), making the tournament one of the largest in WPT history and one of the biggest ever staged in Canada.

The top 117 finishers made the money, with several familiar names among those who did including Mark Radoja (111st, $5,420), Ken Aldridge (99th, $6,100), Xuan Liu (86th, $6,775), Marc-Andre Ladouceur (53rd, $10,840), Dan Smith (42nd, $12,535), Christian Harder (31st, $14,905), Mike McDonald (27th, $17,615), Timothy Adams (25th, $17,615), Jason Koon (22nd, $17,615), Bruce Buffer (19th, $17,615), Amanda Musumeci (14th, $25,070), and Ashton Griffin (13th, $25,070) (all c$).

After two Day 1 flights and two more days of poker, the fourth and final day began with the six-handed final table where Sylvain Siebert of Ontario began the day with the chip lead with more than 8.8 million followed closely by Jeff Gross of Michigan. Meanwhile, returning to the shortest stack among the final six was Gavin Smith, a native of Ontario currently living in Las Vegas, who began his fifth WPT final table with just over 1.6 million.

Also coming back to a short stack of about 2.4 million was Peter Kaemmerlen who would in fact commit all of those chips in the very first hand with Jd-Jh and find himself up against the Ah-10d of Gross. The flop and turn were safe for Kaemmerlen, coming nine-high, but the Ad on the river paired Gross and sent the New Yorker out in sixth place.

That hand catapulted Gross into the chip lead momentarily, but he was soon overtaken by Pascal Lefrancois of Sainte-Therese, Quebec when the latter scored a big double-up through leader Siebert. That hand crippled Siebert, and it wouldn't be long before he'd push all in from the small blind with 6c-5d, get called by Roy in the big blind with Qc-Qs, and after Seibert failed to improve he hit the rail in fifth.

Smith continued to battle with his short stack, doubling up once through Gross.  But eventually he was all in and at risk again with Ad-5s versus Roy's Kc-7s in another blind-vs.-blind battle. The 8d-8s-2c flop was okay for Smith, but the 7d on the turn put Roy ahead. The river was the 3c, and Smith finished fourth.

The remaining trio would battle for three more hours, with much of that time spent with Roy and Lefrancois battling for first position with big stacks of 14 million-plus while Gross endured in third. Then Gross scored a big double-up through Lefrancois when the pair got all of Gross's stack in on a Qc-Qs-7h flop and Gross had pocket sixes to Lefrancois pocket treys. Two cards later Gross still had the best hand and had moved into second position just ahead of Lefrancois.

Over the next hour Gross slipped back, however, and after a few more hands was open-pushing for just under 2.5 million from the button and getting called by Roy in the small blind. Gross had Kd-Qc and Roy As-Qs, and after the flop brought an ace Gross was already drawing dead by the turn to be eliminated in third.

Heads-up play began with Roy in front with just over 19.1 million while Lefrancois was just under 16 million. The two would play nearly 30 hands, with Lefrancois gradually edging out in front himself. Then came a huge preflop all-in confrontation that saw Lefrancois hoping his 6h-6c would hold versus Roy's Ks-Qc. But the flop brought a king and the turn a queen, and suddenly Roy had nearly all of the chips while Lefrancois had fallen below 1 million.

All in on the next hand with 8c-3h, Lefrancois saw Roy turn over Ks-Jh, and again the community cards were good for Roy, coming Kc-4d-Jc-Qd-9d to give Roy the hand and the title.

2012 WPT Montreal final table payouts (C$):
1.  Jonathan Roy -- $779,210
2.  Pascal Lefrancois -- $470,920
3.  Jeff Gross -- $317,450
4.  Gavin Smith -- $211,745
5.  Sylvain Siebert -- $146,360
6.  Peter Kaemmerlen -- $113,155

The win marks the biggest cash by far for Roy, a relative newcomer to the poker tourney scene whose first cashes came in 2011. That three-quarter million dollar payday is more than 10 times his previous best score for winning a preliminary event at EPT Monte Carlo in April of this year. For his win, Roy also earns a spot in the $25K WPT World Championship that will conclude Season XI in May 2013 at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, Nevada.

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Bundesliga Betting: Fear factor could play a part in Germany's "Clasico"

Dortmund's Robert Lewandowksi is Bayern's "bete noire"

Bayern Munich have swept away all before them in the Bundesliga this term, but their bogey team Borussia Dortmund lie in wait this weekend, writes Kevin Hatchard.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund, Sat 17:30, Live on Betfair Live Video

Match Odds: Bayern 1.84/5, Dortmund 4.77/2, the draw 4.1n/a

It's been a record-breaking start to the campaign for Bayern Munich, and the Opta stats underline just how well Jupp Heynckes' men are playing. They have collected a record 37 points from the first 14 games of the season, and they are the earliest team to establish themselves as "autumn champions" (in other words they'll be top at the winter break). Their haul of 40 goals in 14 games is the best for 27 years, and no team has had a better goal difference (+35) at this stage than Bayern do now.

Despite all of this success and an 11-point advantage over 3rd-placed Borussia Dortmund, there is a tinge of fear at the Allianz Arena. When this fixture took place last November, Bayern had a five-point lead at the top of the table. BVB won 1-0 thanks to a goal from Mario Gotze, and went on to retain their title as Bayern crumbled in the second half of the season. Heynckes has been at pains to stress that nothing has been won yet.

Both teams played within themselves in midweek as they prepared for this match, with differing results. Bayern won 2-0 at Freiburg, helped by an early red card for the hosts' Fallou Diagne. Dortmund went 1-0 up at home to Fortuna Dusseldorf, but then took their foot off the pedal and allowed the visitors to grab a 1-1 draw.

Bayern will be without the injured Arjen Robben, but midfield general Bastian Schweinsteiger is back to full fitness, and the Bavarians still have plenty of firepower. Mario Gomez is back after a long lay-off, and Thomas Muller is back to his best, having notched up eight goals and six assists.

Dortmund have struggled for consistency this term, but their recent record against Bayern is excellent. They have won on their last two league visits to the Allianz Arena, although they were beaten 2-1 there in the season-opening German Supercup. Dortmund have beaten Bayern in their last four league meetings, and they battered them 5-2 in last season's German Cup final. BVB have plenty of attacking players on good form such as Mario Gotze and Marco Reus, but the star of the show is Robert Lewandowski. The Polish international has scored nine BL goals and made three more, and he has scored five goals in his last three games against Bayern.

Dortmund really need a win to keep their title hopes alive, and they seem to be Bayern's kryptonite. If you fancy Dortmund based on their recent record against Bayern, backing them in the Draw No Bet market at 3.45n/a may appeal, as the draw provides insurance. Bear in mind that BVB were just moments away from winning big Champions League games at Manchester City and Real Madrid before conceding late equalisers.

The market expects goals, but I think this game could be really tight. Bayern and Dortmund have the league's two best defences, and both of last season's league meetings ended 1-0 to BVB. Under 2.5 Goals looks chunky at 2.447/5. Both of those games were scoreless at half-time, and backing the draw in the Half-Time market appeals again at 2.427/5.

Recommended Bets: Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.447/5

Back the draw at Half-Time at 2.427/5

Back Dortmund Draw No Bet at 3.45n/a

Greuther Furth vs Stuttgart, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Greuther 3.259/4, Stuttgart 2.466/4, the draw 3.55n/a

Greuther Furth remain in the dropzone, with just one win in 14 matches. Mike Buskens' battlers
continue to struggle at home - they are yet to win in front of their own fans and they have suffered five defeats in seven games. To make matters worse, Greuther have scored just three goals at home all season.

Stuttgart were soundly beaten 3-0 by Freiburg in their last away game, but it's worth considering that Bruno Labbadia's men were running on empty after a Europa League trip to Steaua Bucharest. VfB bounced back in midweek with a 2-1 home success against Augsburg.

Stuttgart have won three of their last five Bundesliga away games, and that sequence included a goalless draw at Borussia Dortmund. I think they are more than capable of beating a limited Greuther side who have the division's worst home record.

Recommended Bet: Back Stuttgart to win at 2.466/4

Bayer Leverkusen vs Nurnberg, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Bayer 1.528/15, Nurnberg 7.26/1, the draw 4.47/2

Bayer are up to second after a stunning run of form which has seen them win four of their last five Bundesliga games, a sequence which has included victories against Bayern Munich and Schalke. On Wednesday they demolished Werder Bremen 4-1 at the Weserstadion - that was only Werder's second home defeat of the campaign.

Nurnberg are on a high after a 4-2 home win against Hoffenheim which was inspired by Japanese international midfielder Hiroshi Kiyotake, who scored twice. Despite that boost, Dieter Hecking's men have taken just one point from their last five away games, and I can't see them resisting an attack that is averaging nearly two goals per game.

Recommended Bet: Back Bayer -1.0 & -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.26/5

Donald McCain: Frustrated by the weather

The washout at Bangor on Saturday has caused Donald a few headaches.

Donald has to revise plans for several of his string after Bangor's untimely abandonment.

The weather is starting to become a real pain now. It's no surprise that there are fixtures abandoned in the winter - it's not a new phenomenon after all - but there are so few suitable races to run nice novices in as it is that losing a fixture like Bangor is a real blow, especially for us as it's a track I love to have runners at.

I've got plenty ready to go at the moment and it's hard enough trying to pick and choose the races to keep them apart without extra complications. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again - there are too many races for bad horses at the moment. Obviously I am in a fortunate position that I don't have too many that I can run in 0-100s but when you look at some of these fixtures, there are only half the races I can run horses in.

It's not just a weekday issue either - there are some nice races about at the weekends but some of the supporting stuff isn't what you might expect.

I see Towcester have a card next week with a 3m novice hurdle, a 2m3f novice hurdle and a 2m maiden hurdle and I think there should be a few more meetings that give you opportunities for these horses.

Talking of the weather, given what has happened in some parts of the country we have been quite lucky here, even compared to recent years. 

The all-weather gallop is still in good shape and although the schooling areas aren't always accessible, we can still school them on the all weather if needs be. Being able to keep them ticking over is clearly a big advantage when things turn bleak.

It was quite frustrating to only have one winner at Haydock last weekend as it was a meeting I had targeted a big squad for but it's difficult to be too downbeat about it as most of them ran well and a few, like Corrin Wood, exceeded expectations.

Obviously Clondaw Kaempfer was the highlight and he does look an exciting prospect - particularly as I am sure he will be a better horse on better ground. 

I didn't think Peddlers Cross was quite ready for Ascot last weekend and although I haven't got a firm plan in mind for him yet, he shouldn't be that difficult to find the right opportunity for in time.

The Big Match Tactical View: Norwich v Sunderland

Alexander Tettey has helped transform Norwich's season

Norwich have gone seven games unbeaten, and Michael Cox fancies them to extend that run.

Norwich v Sunderland, Sunday 4:00, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Norwich 2.166/5, Sunderland 4.03/1, The Draw 3.45n/a

After a difficult start to the season, Norwich have now settled down with a consistent side and a steady stream of impressive results - early season thrashings against Fulham and Liverpool seem like a distant memory, with famous 1-0 home victories against Arsenal and Manchester United evidence of their sudden transformation into a slid, disciplined team. They are rightly favourites for this content.

Chris Hughton has drilled his players relentlessly at getting into a good defensive shape, with two banks of four behind the ball. The two holding midfielders, Bradley Johnson and Alexander Tettey, sit very deep, allowing the opposition time on the ball in deep positions, but preventing players finding space between the lines. 

On the flanks, Norwich's full-backs will be protected well, which is crucial against a Sunderland side heavily based around width, and providing Steven Fletcher with crosses. Adam Johnson has sometimes moved to the left in recent weeks, but his predictable play on the right - always cutting inside onto his stronger foot - will play into the hands of Norwich. 

There's every chance of Norwich keeping a clean sheet here at 2.89/5 - their organisation in open play is superb, and Sunderland lack a true creator to manufacture chances from central positions. Stephane Sessegnon can be a threat with his dribbling, but against central midfielders sitting deep, he contributes little.

The on bige question mark, in terms of the Norwich clean sheet, is at set-pieces - Sunderland have a couple of fine dead ball specialists in Craig Gardner and Sebastian Larsson, while Norwich conceded a sloppy goal at Southampton in midweek from a free-kick.

Going forward, Norwich are likely to play on the counter-attack rather than seeking to dominate possession, although they'll probably have a couple of decent spells of pressure. In Wes Hoolahan, they have the creator that Sunderland badly lack. He has few defensive responsibilities and plays close to Grant Holt, drifting around to find pockets of space. 

Norwich also have attack-minded wingers on the flanks - Robert Snodgrass, much like Johnson, is too predictable with his movement, but he and Anthony Pilkington might get more space, because Sunderland's wingers can switch off and leave their full-backs isolated. Don't expect much overlapping from Norwich's full-backs, however - they're likely to stay in defensive positions, which should prevent them conceding the type of goal Fletcher scored at Fulham - drifting into the channels to collect a long diagonal pass.

My second recommended bet is slightly more ambitious - it's for Alexander Tettey to score. The Ghanaian-born Norweigan international is a defensive midfielder, but against Southampton he showed a willingness to break forward into attack, catching the opposition off-guard. He's also happy to strike from long-range when given space - which he might afforded against this Sunderland midfield - as shown by his shot that led to Grant Holt's winner against Arsenal.

Because he's yet to get off the mark for Norwich, the market might not truly reflect his attacking capabilities, so backing him to open the scoring at 40.039/1 or more would be a decent bet.

Overall, I struggle to see many goals in this match - neither side will take command of the game, and both lack reliable sources of goals other than their main striker. It's also worth considering fitness levels - this is both clubs' third match in nine days, and neither manager has rotated significantly in recent weeks. Sometimes tiredness can lead to defensive lapses and late goals, but often it simply means less attacking ambition and fewer off-the-ball runs towards goal.

Overall, this is Norwich's match to lose - I just hope they're not saving their best performances for big games, as the wins over Arsenal and Manchester United might suggest.

Recommended bets:
Back Norwich to keep a clean sheet at 2.89/5
Back Tettey to open the scoring at 40.039/1

Jonathan Roy Tops Field of 1,173, Wins WPT Montreal

Jonathan Roy wins massive WPT Montreal event (Photo: CanadaPoker.com)

It has been an historic couple of weeks for poker in Canada, with the World Series of Poker Circuit recently making its first ever stop in Vancouver and the World Poker Tour triumphantly returning to Canada for this week's WPT Montreal event. Both tournaments saw fields of more than 1,000 players participate, and in both cases local players took the titles, with John Crncic of Vancouver winning the WSOP-C event and Jonathan Roy of Boucherville (a Montreal suburb) winning WPT Montreal.

We reported on Crncic's victory here a couple of weeks ago in which he overcame a field of 1,032 at the River Rock Casino Resort in Vancouver to win a WSOP-C ring and $288,382 first prize in the $1,675 buy-in Main Event. Crncic also earned a spot in the 2012-13 WSOP National Championship that will take place at the conclusion of the current season in May 2013 at Harrah's New Orleans.

Whereas the WSOP-C event in Vancouver saw mostly Canadians take part -- and a final table comprised solely of Canadian players -- the WPT event in Montreal attracted many players from the United States and around the world. It was the first time the WPT has visited Canada since 2008, and a whopping 1,173 players entered WPT Montreal at the Playground Poker Club in nearby Kahnawake, well exceeding expectations for the event. With a $3,000 buy-in (Canadian dollars, worth just slightly more than USD), the prize pool added up to $3,412,930 (C$), making the tournament one of the largest in WPT history and one of the biggest ever staged in Canada.  

The top 117 finishers made the money, with several familiar names among those who did including Mark Radoja (111st, $5,451), Ken Aldridge (99th, $6,134), Xuan Liu (86th, $6,813), Marc-Andre Ladouceur (53rd, $10,901), Dan Smith (42nd, $12,605), Christian Harder (30th, $14,989), Mike McDonald (27th, $17,714), Timothy Adams (25th, $17,714), Jason Koon (22nd, $17,714), Bruce Buffer (19th, $17,714), Amanda Musumeci (14th, $25,211), and Ashton Griffin (13th, $25,211).

After two Day 1 flights and two more days of poker, the fourth and final day began with the six-handed final table where Sylvain Siebert of Ontario began the day with the chip lead with more than 8.8 million followed closely by Jeff Gross of Michigan. Meanwhile, returning to the shortest stack among the final six was Gavin Smith, a native of Ontario currently living in Las Vegas, who began his fifth WPT final table with just over 1.6 million.

Also coming back to a short stack of about 2.4 million was Peter Kaemmerlen who would in fact commit all of those chips in the very first hand with Jd-Jh and find himself up against the Ah-10d of Gross. The flop and turn were safe for Kaemmerlen, coming nine-high, but the Ad on the river paired Gross and sent the New Yorker out in sixth place.

That hand catapulted Gross into the chip lead momentarily, but he was soon overtaken by Pascal Lefrancois of Sainte-Therese, Quebec when the latter scored a big double-up through leader Siebert. That hand crippled Siebert, and it wouldn't be long before he'd push all in from the small blind with 6c-5d, get called by Roy in the big blind with Qc-Qs, and after Seibert failed to improve hit the rail in fifth.

Smith continued to battle with his short stack, doubling up once through Gross.  But eventually he was all in and at risk again with Ad-5s versus Roy's Kc-7s in another blind-vs.-blind battle. The 8d-8s-2c flop was okay for Smith, but the 7d on the turn put Roy ahead. The river was the 3c, and Smith finished fourth.

The remaining trio would battle for three more hours, with much of that time spent with Roy and Lefrancois battling for first position with big stacks of 14 million-plus while Gross endured in third. Then Gross scored a big double-up through Lefrancois when the pair got all of Gross's stack in on a Qc-Qs-7h flop and Gross had pocket sixes to Lefrancois pocket treys. Two cards later Gross still had the best hand and had moved into second position just ahead of Lefrancois.

Over the next hour Gross slipped back, however, and after a few more hands was open-pushing for just under 2.5 million from the button and getting called by Roy in the small blind. Gross had Kd-Qc and Roy As-Qs, and after the flop brought an ace Gross was already drawing dead by the turn to be eliminated in third.

Heads-up play began with Roy in front with just over 19.1 million while Lefrancois was just under 16 million. The two would play nearly 30 hands, with Lefrancois gradually edging out in front himself. Then came a huge preflop all-in confrontation that saw Lefrancois hoping his 6h-6c would hold versus Roy's Ks-Qc. But the flop brought a king and the turn a queen, and suddenly Roy had nearly all of the chips while Lefrancois had fallen below 1 million.

All in on the next hand with 8c-3h, Lefrancois saw Roy turn over Ks-Jh, and again the community cards were good for Roy, coming Kc-4d-Jc-Qd-9d to give Roy the hand and the title.

2012 WPT Montreal final table payouts (C$):
1.  Jonathan Roy -- $779,210
2.  Pascal Lefrancois -- $470,920
3.  Jeff Gross -- $317,450
4.  Gavin Smith -- $211,745
5.  Sylvain Siebert -- $146,360
6.  Peter Kaemmerlen -- $113,155

The win marks the biggest cash by far for Roy, a relative newcomer to the poker tourney scene whose first cashes came in 2011. That three-quarter million dollar payday is more than 10 times his previous best score for winning a preliminary event at EPT Monte Carlo in April of this year. For his win, Roy also earns a spot in the $25K WPT World Championship that will conclude Season XI in May 2013 at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, Nevada.

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Jamie Lynch's Hennessy Preview: A character reference book

Tidal Bay winning at Sandown in April

Despite what the old curmudgeons tell you, there are still some characters in the game, and Jamie Lynch profiles one of them who's rolling back the years and aiming at the Hennessy.

'I have been commissioned to write an autobiography and I would be grateful to any of your readers who could tell me what I was doing between 1960 and 1974.' 

The brilliant Jeffrey Bernard, king of the racing writers, did manage to join some of the dots for a priceless collection of his columns entitled Low Life: A Kind of Autobiography, which is a sweet-scented nugget amid the manure pile of life stories available. You can usually tell how good, or more often how bad, an autobiography will be just from its title. 

There are the generic pretentious ones such as 'My Way' or 'Honest'; there are the cheesy ones like 'Making Waves' by David Hasselhoff or 'Don't Hassel The Hoff' by David Hasselhoff; there are the prosaic ones such as 'Hitting Back' (Andy Murray) or 'Losing My Virginity' (Richard Branson); and then there are those involving desperate puns, principally Shane Richie's 'Rags To Richie' or, as if Alan Titchmarsh wasn't unbearable enough already, and brace yourself for this, 'Trowel And Error'.

And every now and then there's one that hits the mark, like 'The Hardest (Working) Man In Showbusiness', documenting Ron Jeremy's very particular body of work. 

Racehorses compile their own biography, in its strictest sense of self-documentation and achievement, through their race-record. Their character is up to us to decipher, but some clearly have more of it than others, and, as such, some horses' full autobiographies would be more readable than others. 

I've managed to get my hands on one such manuscript, on the verge of being published, and, in terms of equine characters, it's a biggie, probably the biggest of all. 'High And Low Tidals: Racing Through My Mind' tells the story so far of Tidal Bay, ghost written by Brough Scott. Here's an excerpt - detailing the 2010 Betfair Chase - of a defining day for this flawed genius of a horse, one of the game's great thinkers: 

Daybreak. The sun, though brightening the sky, along with my mood, was unable to penetrate the winter blanket that Mother Nature had draped across the expectant Durham meadows that November night. 'It's very cold, isn't it?' I said to my next-stabledoor neighbour, Striking Ambition. 'I don't know, I can't feel it,' he replied. I knew it was a big day because Howard had on his best overcoat, the one with the velvet collar. He had schooled me well, but today I was going to be the one teaching a lesson.

Howard and I hadn't been getting on like before. It was a running battle; I disliked running and he liked a battle. I had given Howard and Graham everything, including winning days at Cheltenham and Aintree, and yet here I was, once their pride and joy, left feeling unappreciated by the weekly influx of new and expensive younger models they paraded in front of me at the yard. I needed to remind them of what I could still do, without rewarding them in full. It's a fine line between love and hate, between first and second, and I intended to tread it. As we left the stables, through the recently-replaced gates, I knew what I had to do.

Seeing Imperial Commander, the Gold Cup winner, in the paddock was the cherry on the revenge-chilled cake, because my plan needed a proper horse like him. I gave a wink to his rider, Paddy. We always got on well, Paddy and I. Kindred spirits. 'You're like two peas in an effing pod,' Howard used to say. Brian rode me these days, and I almost felt sorry for him as he climbed aboard, unaware that he'd have a harder race than me. Going through the slow motions is easy, but knowing when to isn't. That afternoon, at Haydock, I got it just right. As others began to flag, I put on the brakes and waited until Imperial and Paddy had a big enough lead before I gave the controls back to poor Brian. There was a point I thought I'd underdone it, and that I might even catch them, but the old head-on-one-side trick bought me a bit more time. A fast-finishing second, hot on the heels of Imperial Commander, was job done as far as I was concerned. 

On coming back in, Graham had on that nervous smile he wears. Howard just sneered. My message hadn't got through. I'm going to have to go through all this again, I thought. Again and again and again... 

The fact that Tidal Bay is such a character, and has seemed to hold a bit back in his time, in part explains why he's still got so much to offer at the age of almost 12, when he should, by rights, be past his sell-by date. But, gradually revitalised by Paul Nicholls, here Tidal Bay is, in better form and mood than for years, carrying top-weight in a Hennessy, with a big chance of winning it. 

Success in a Grade 3 Chase (likewise off top-weight) at Sandown at the end of last season and a Grade 2 Hurdle at Wetherby at the start of this one have suggested that we can now put the word 'reformed' before his steadfast signature of 'character'. Yes, he still has the Timeform squiggle, because there are just too many previous offences to be taken into account, and yes each one of his 18 rivals in the Hennessy is younger, with fewer miles on the clock, than him, but, as the handicap scale shows, he's the best horse in the race, and only three others are within a stone of him.

That's the other point: it's not a great Hennessy. Second-season chasers are the fad, understandably so after what Cue Card, Al Ferof and Silviniaco Conti, amongst others, have achieved in the last month or so, and clear-favourite Bobs Worth is tied in with two of those, 1-0 against Cue Card and 1-1 with Silviniaco Conti in match-ups last term prior to his RSA win at Cheltenham. Bobs Worth comes here cold, though, which may not be ideal for one who took time to warm to his jumping last season, and beyond him there are no obvious up-and-comers for Tidal Bay to worry about. Not that much worries him by now, I wouldn't think. 

It's ironic that Tidal Bay has ended up with Nicholls, who tried to buy him over six years ago at the sale Graham Wylie forked out 300,000 for him, a sum that Tidal Bay has repaid twice over in win-and-place prize money. It's also perhaps ironic that Tidal Bay will take to the same course, on the same day, for the same team, as the mighty Big Buck's. I say that because, for me, there probably isn't much, besides the odd chromosome, between Tidal Bay and Big Buck's. 

Both are cut from the same-styled cloth, both have outstanding ability, but one is a giver while the other is self-centred, or at least he was. Instead of being a great character, Tidal Bay could have been simply a great, but he may still succeed where Big Buck's failed in winning a Hennessy, making for a dramatic epilogue to a fascinating autobiography.     

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Home and Away: Back Porto to punish Braga once again

Life is good for Les Canaris this year

Jonno Turner looks to round of another successful week by going in search of his sixth and seventh winners from 10 picks.

We're off to France for our penultimate pick of the week - and Nantes host Noirt at the Beaujoire Louis Fonteneau, looking to make it six wins from seven games.

Les Canaris are sitting pretty in second place in the table, and boss Michel Der Zakarian will be delighted with his sides performances so far this campaign.

Seven clean sheets from their last nine outings underlines just how strong the hosts have been in recent weeks, and the Pays de la Loire side will be desperate to continue that momentum as they welcome a struggling Niort side who sit just one place outside the drop zone ahead of this one.

The visitors have not yet won a league game since gaining promotion from the third tier last season, and boss Pascal Gastien will be keen to arrest that slump here.

But the away side have not won a Ligue 2 encounter on the road since 2007 - and that hoodoo shows no sign of clearing anytime soon.

Les Chamois have only managed half a dozen goals away from the Stade Rene Gaillard this year, and that suggests that they are struggling for quality in the final third.

Not many sides travel to the Fonteneau and leave with anything at the best of times - and I think that the visitors' lack of goals and momentum will cost them dearly here, so I'm backing the home win.

Bet 1: Nantes (HOME) @ 1.68

Switching our attentions to Portugal now, and it's a top of the table clash, as leaders Porto travel to third placed Braga, aiming to maintain their unbeaten start to the season.

The visitors have been in faultless form this campaign, winning eight of their opening 10 games, and smashing a whopping 26 goals in the process.

Boss Vitor Pereira will be delighted with that return - but it is not just the attacking prowess of his squad which has caught the eye, as his rearguard have conceded just six goals all season.

These two sides met in the league on Saturday, and the visitors ran out 2-0 winners - and although this is a cup game, they will be just as keen to secure victory here.

Four consecutive wins going into this tie will have confidence high down at the Estadio do Dragao, and the Portistas have not lost a game on their travels since March.

Hosts Braga go into this game having lost four of their last five outings, and and ten goals conceded in that time suggests that the home defence could be in for a torrid time this evening.

The Arcebispos have lost their last two at the Estadio AXA - not the best preparation for this game, and Porto's comfortable win at the weekend will have hurt Jose Peseiro's side.

In fact, history heavily favours the visitors in this fixture - and they have won the last eight consecutive meetings between these two sides.

Bet 2: Porto (AWAY) @ 2.28