How do big servers perform against strong returners on the handicap?

This tennis betting strategy article looks at trends when 'big servers' and 'strong returners' go head-to-head, with a view to generating tennis handicap betting opportunities.

In this previous article we found that:

ATP Top 10 'big servers' won best of three matches in straight sets more often than the top 10 most return orientated players (38.3% compared to 30.9%).

'Big server' matches went to a deciding set less than 'strong returners' (35.1% compared to 40.0%).

'Big server' matches covered the over 22.5 game line significantly more (52.1% compared to 46.4%).

This highlighted that backing strong returners to win at ‘-1.5 sets’ was generally a worse bet than backing big servers to win in straight sets.

Isner vs. Nadal

At Monte Carlo in 2015, John Isner (starting price 8.260) took on the greatest clay-courter of all time, Rafael Nadal. The big-serving American came close to an upset, eventually losing 6-7 6-4 3-6 - which covered the over 2.5 sets and the ‘average’ over 22.5 game lines.

In the 12 months prior to the match, Nadal held 83.1% and broke 45.4% on clay, with Isner’s strong serve propelling him to a higher hold percentage - 93.2% - but his limited return game meant he only broke opponents 6.9% on the dirt.

These statistics generated a projected hold (on a relatively slow clay court) of 70.1% on Isner, which is almost certainly his lowest projected hold percentage for a considerable time. 

Serve dominated the match, with Nadal conceding just three break points in 16 service games (being broken once) and these figures wouldn’t be hugely dissimilar to pre-match expectations. 

However, in Isner’s 15 service games, he was broken just once. Therefore, compared to pre-match expectations, Isner’s serve over-performed, and in this one-off match, negated Nadal’s magnificent return game. 

On this basis, it would be beneficial for tennis bettors to see if big servers were generally able to do the same across a bigger sample, or whether this one match was an outlier. 

The following table illustrates the results of the top 15 big servers (Nick Kyrgios was omitted due to lack of matches), in best of three set head-to-head matches against the 15 most return orientated players from 2013 onwards:

Player

Matches

Win %

3 set match %

Over 22.5 games%

Karlovic

12

75

33.3

58.3

Isner

11

54.5

36.4

63.6

Groth

1

0

100

100

De Schepper

4

50

0

50

Raonic

7

71.4

14.3

14.3

Lopez

7

42.9

0

0

Johnson

4

50

75

100

Tomic

9

66.7

22.2

22.2

Querrey

7

71.4

57.1

57.1

Tsonga

5

60

60

60

Bolelli

2

100

0

0

Anderson

7

57.1

71.4

71.4

Pospisil V

10

20

60

60

Sock

8

62.5

25

25

Del Potro

3

100

66.7

66.7

Overall

97

58.8

38.1

47.4

Results

We can see that big servers had the edge, winning 58.8% of head-to-head matches sampled, despite only having one top ten player (Milos Raonic) in their group, compared to two (David Ferrer and Andy Murray) in the strong returner list.

In addition 38.1% of sampled matches reached a deciding set. This is 2.9% above the 2014 ATP average of 35.2%, so the head-to-head matches between big servers and strong returners covered over 2.5 sets more frequently than average.

Previously we discovered that the top ten big server matches went to a deciding set 35.1% of the time, and strong returners did so 40.0%. 

The head-to-head sample result of 38.1% is between these two figures, indicating that both genres contribute to weighting this figure.

However, the over 22.5 game lines were skewed strongly towards the strong returner data, with just 47.4% of head-to-head matches covering this line.

This is very similar to the 46.4% generated from the top 10 return orientated players from the previous article, and significantly below the top 10 biggest servers, which was 52.1%.

On this basis, we can start to draw several conclusions:

Backing over on the game handicap in these matches should be carefully considered.

'Big servers' went over 22.5 games 46.4% of the time, but covered 52.1% on the handicap, meaning when big servers' go head-to-head, they could be expected to cover around 60% of the time.

Nothing can be read into the one-off match between Isner and Nadal, and is more to do with the current frailties in the Spaniards game.

This article should give tennis bettors a good guide of how to approach head-to-head matches between 'big servers' and 'strong returners', and contribute to research for betting handicap opportunities.

Click here to see the latest ATP odds.

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Online Roulette casino strategy

Understanding how to play on online Roulette will give you the best chance to win.

While online Roulette appears to be based on luck, there are strategies you can use to win on Roulette and maximise your profits.

Online Roulette strategy

Martingale

If betting on either black vs. red or odd numbers vs. even, then a martingale strategy can help you win on online Roulette.

Each time you lose, double the amount that you bet the first time and then bet on the same colour until you win.

Example:

Let's say you bet $10 on red and it lands on black. The next turn, you would bet $20 on red so if you win, you earn your stake back and make a profit.

If it lands on black again, double your stake, betting $40 on red. Continue doing so until the wheel lands on red (which it will), to win your losses back and gain a profit.

Roulette players should remember that this strategy requires you to have enough money in your account to be able to double up if necessary.

James Bond Roulette strategy

The James Bond Roulette strategy involves betting $200 total, distributed as follows:

$140 on the high numbers (19-36)

$50 on the six numbers (13-18)

$10 on zero

Therefore if you land on 19 to 36, you will have a profit of $80. If one of the six numbers from 13 to 18 comes out, you will have a profit of $100, while a Zero results in a profit of $160.

The only way to lose with this strategy is if a number between 1 and 12 comes up. However, you can then employ the Martingale strategy mentioned earlier.

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Play classic Casino or live Roulette

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Online Blackjack casino strategy

If you want to win lots of money playing online blackjack in the Pinnacle Sports Casino, then learning some Blackjack strategy is vital.

You might be thinking that everything is simply down to the luck of the cards but there's a lot more to Blackjack than that. And having a Blackjack strategy is very important.  

Online Blackjack strategy

Beat the dealer

Blackjack strategy will teach you that the game isn't all about getting as close to or hitting 21. It's great if you can do that but your main task is to beat the dealer.

This knowledge will help you learn how to win at Blackjack, and then you can start beating the dealer and winning money.

Freedom

In Blackjack, the player has more freedom than the dealer. You can choose to play your hand in whatever way you want too. Every decision is entirely yours.

That's not the case for the dealer who has to abide by house rules and must stand at 17 or over. 

Use your knowledge

The big advantage you have is that you get to see one of the dealer's cards, allowing you to make an educated estimate of how the hand will develop.

Blackjack strategy charts

Basic Blackjack strategy charts are widely available online.  The bonus of playing online is that you can print out these charts and continually refer to it while you're playing.

Blackjack strategy declares that your hand can fall into one of two categories - hard and soft totals.

A hard total is one in which you haven't been dealt an ace. If you have been lucky enough to be given an ace then that's a soft total. Why?  Well the ace has two values 1 and 11 so that's going to be a big help to you.

Example:

The charts show you how to win at Blackjack based on the hand you have been dealt and the one card you know the dealer has.

If your two cards total 16 do you hit or stand? The basic Blackjack strategy chart suggests if the dealer has a card between 2 and 6 then you should stand and let them hit more cards.

If the dealers card is 7 or more then you should hit. Why?

Well there's more cards in the pack with a value of 10 than any other. That means the dealer is likely to be on 17 after their next card causing them to stand and beat your 16.

You might think it's crazy to hit on 16 but it could be your only chance of winning.

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Is a short-term profit always a sign of good betting?

As a bettor do you understand how luck influences your short-term betting? Is a run of five winning bets skill or luck? This article explains how assigning probabilities to your bets is a good habit to develop, as a run of winning bets isn't always a sign of good betting.

The relationship between bookmaker and bettor is based around the odds priced up by the former, and the opinion of the latter regarding the accuracy of that calculation.

The most readily used example is a fair coin toss. The expectation that either a head or tail will result from a single toss is equal, with an implied probability of 0.5, and if this expectation were to be converted to decimal odds, the fair price for a head or tail would be 2.0.

Of course, a bookmaker intent on making profit would price this market up at shorter odds than 2.0 to ensure that any bet made would, in the long term, be favourable to the book. A price of 1.87 on both would have an implied probability of 0.535 for each of the two possible outcomes.

The margin - learn how to calculate betting margins here - for such a simple market is derived from the sum of the implied probabilities. In the case of the example above, this would be 1.07 and the margin would typically be quoted as 7%.

The larger the margin, the easier task the bookmaker has to ensure their prices are not longer than the true chance of an event happening, which would present a long term value opportunity for the bettor.

Therefore, a bookmaker who consistently applies low margins to their markets, such as Pinnacle Sports should be the preferred bookmaker, as they are more likely to present value betting opportunities in sporting markets, where, unlike a coin toss, the odds are influenced by numerous variables.

How likely is a run of profitable bets?

If betting with a low margin book is the first step to a profitable approach, the most visible sign that a series of bets have passed the value test, is a profitable yield.

However, bettors should look at how likely it is that a run of bets will produce a profit or loss based on the implied true probabilities.

If we again use the artificial example of a series of coin tosses, where we are certain of the true probability, we can calculate the likelihood that a particular run of bets will be profitable or not.

The outcome of ten such true even money bets can range from ten consecutive losing bets all the way through to a full house of winners.

It is more likely that the outcome of ten such trials will include a mix of successful and unsuccessful wagers and the most likely outcome is an even split of wins and losses. In simulations or by the use of a binomial calculator, this particular outcome has a probability of occurring nearly 0.25.

The outcome of each trial is independent of the previous outcome and the bookmaker will use the margin to offer an unfavourable price for each toss.

If, for example the price for each outcome was set at 1.87 - a margin of 7% - five successes from 10 bets would produce a return of 9.35 units if 1 unit level stakes were wagered on each of the ten bets.

Overall, a yield of 0.65 units lost from the ten units staked.

How the margin affects your returns

We can use this simple example to illustrate the importance of understanding the effect the bookmaker’s margin has on returns. If each event had been priced at 1.95, the margin would have only been 2.5% compared to the previous 7% and although a loss would still have been made from only picking five winners from ten bets, this loss would have fallen from 0.65 units to 0.25.

To make a profit from such a series of poor value wagers, six or more successes are required. And again either by simulations or with the online calculator there is just under a 0.21 probability that exactly six wins fall in ten trials, and a yield of 1.22 units are made at 1.87 or 1.7 units at the more generous price of 1.95.

Of course, seven wins and greater will also produce a positive return from these ten bets and the cumulative probability for each number of wins of six or greater totals nearly 0.38.

Therefore, because of how we have set up this artificial scenario, we know that each individual wager is priced to represent poor value for the bettor. Yet there is not an insignificant chance that six or more wins will occur in ten bets and a profit will be made.

Keep records to identify the difference between luck & skill

Real life betting sequences will involve a variety of prices and stakes, but the key to a successful approach will include identifying prices, which may not fully reflect your estimation of the actual chances of an outcome occurring.

Therefore, keeping a record of your estimation of the true probability of your bet being successful, alongside the implied probability from the bookmaker’s odds, is a good habit to develop.

Not only can you compare the two values, but it also allows for relatively simple spreadsheet based simulations, along the lines of the coin toss scenario, to be created to examine the part in which luck and skill may have played in the short term to your current yield.

A knowledgeable bettor will often think in probabilistic terms, not only for individual outcomes, but also in the profit or loss scenario from a sequence of such bets.