US Saturday Preview: Balance The Books with a good bet

Graeme North previews the Grade 1 action

Two more points-earning trials for the Kentucky Derby, the Arkansas Derby and the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, take place this weekend at Oaklawn Park and Keeneland respectively with the latter race the highlight of three G1 races on a card featuring five Graded contests in all...

Overanalyze, who ran better on his recent reappearance than many in the American press appear to have given him credit for, is top on Timeform ratings at Oaklawn by 2lb over the gutsy Oxbow in a race in which the Bob Baffert-trained War Academy is rather surprisingly favourite at 3 on the Morning Line. But the more interesting and potential more significant of the two trials is at Keeneland where a maximum field of fourteen go to post (off 17:40 local time, 22:40 BST).

Top on weight-adjusted Timeform ratings in a race more open than the figures suggest is Java's War on 123, followed by Uncaptured, Balance The Books and Rydilluc all on 119 with Undrafted and Charming Kitten next on 115. Java's War is priced up jointly with Rydilluc at 5 as second favourite but probably deserves to head the market by himself on 2013 form. He didn't look anything special as a juvenile when he was twice beaten in Graded company including by Uncaptured at Churchill Downs, but a good second-place finish clear of the rest and running on strongly behind Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby last month represented a big step forward and Verrazano has since of course won the G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

Java's War showed he acts on this surface last year and has the assistance of top course rider Julien Leparoux, so clearly merits plenty of respect. Rydilluc hasn't any racing experience of Polytrack, but he is unbeaten in three runs on turf since showing nothing on dirt on his debut and both wins at Gulfstream Park this year (beat Charming Kitten in the second of them) by a combined total of nearly ten lengths have been impressive. Morning Line favourite (at 4.5) Uncaptured has won four of his six races on synthetic surfaces but if anything was a slightly disappointing second last time out in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park, even allowing for it being his reappearance.

Even more disappointing in that race was our selection Balance The Books who was having his first run since finishing an unfortunate third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last year - he should have been second at least - but he comes right into the reckoning on his juvenile form which included a G3 win on this surface here in the Bourbon Stakes where he did extremely well to win at all having been very poorly placed early. He has reportedly been training very well back here since his reappearance and the Morning Line compilers look to have made far too much of that lacklustre run. At forecast odds of 16 - unlikely to be available but anything bigger than 8 would still look attractive - he's well worth another chance.

The Blue Grass is preceded by both of the other G1 races on the card, the Madison Stakes (16:35, 21:35 BST) for older fillies over seven furlongs, and the Jenny Wiley Stakes (17:05, 22:05 BST) for older fillies again but over a mile and a sixteenth on the turf this time.

The Madison was the race last year that heralded the arrival of Groupie Doll but there looks to be nothing with either her ability or potential to reach that level of ability in the line-up with the Morning Line favourite Fantasy Of Light rated just 108. The Madison looks no better than a G3 in all honesty, however, with only maybe Holiday For Kitten and Jamaican Smoke probably capable of running to a figure in excess of 110.

Holiday For Kitten would have to rate a serious danger if she is fit and ready for this - as one would expect she will be trained by Wesley Ward - as prior to running well below form when last seen at Presque Isale Downs in the autumn she had won both her previous races here, including a G2. In the circumstances, however, it might just be worth taking a chance with Jamaican Smoke. She ran only respectably on her recent reappearance at Gulfstream following a long layoff, but she won her only start here, has Julien Leparoux up and ran far better than her second placing suggests at Belmont on her penultimate run in the G3 Victory Ride Stakes, blasting off far too fast and setting things up for deep closer and subsequent G1 winner Emma's Encore. She has already won at this trip and the forecast 6 is attractive. 

The Jenny Wiley sees the second appearance this year of the 2012 Irish 1000 Guineas winner Samitar. She already has one G1 - at Belmont last September - to her name in the States and should arguably have gone close to winning a G2 at Gulfstream Park last time where she let the reopposing winner Centre Court get first run on her and couldn't be delivered with her challenge until very late. That's not to say Centre Court, who won three Graded races last year and was never out of the first two, was an undeserving winner as she conceded Samitar 5lb and was sent off favourite, but Samitar might find the slightly longer trip in her favour this time in a bid to reduce the deficit even though she meets her rival on 3lb worse terms. Old Tune, who has won a couple of G3s at Tampa Bay this year, and 2012 Jenny Wiley winner Daisy Devine are the only others priced up  shorter than 6 but neither's presence might be good for the other seeing as they both run from the front and no bet here seems the safest call.

The feature over at Aqueduct where the usual $250,000 guaranteed Pick 4 (races 7 through to 10) is up for grabs is the G2 Distaff Handicap for older fillies over six furlongs at 16:20 (21:20 BST). This might be a handicap in name but as with most handicaps in the States the two at the top of the weights appear to be well treated by the conditions and Cluster Of Stars who has won all four races here at this trip, showing progressive form each time, should really be carrying a bit more weight than she has been allotted. She won her last race in a faster time than any of her rivals have yet recorded, and might just have too much early pace for Spectacular Sky who has had the odd flirtation with Graded company in her time and was second in a G2 at Gulfstream last time but has never won over a trip this short. Odds of 2 give little away, however, and there's every reason to think she'll start even shorter. 

Recommended bets:

1pt win Balance The Books in the Blue Grass
1pt win Jamaican Smoke in the Madison

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