Scott Stallings, five clear and with the event at his mercy
Odds-on third round leader, Justin Rose, failed to cross the line in Abu Dhabi and there's s similar situation at the Humana Challenge where Scot Stallings sits five shots clear of the pack? Can he convert a five-shot lead?
14:35 - January 20, 2013
It's all over in Abu Dhabi and Jamie Donaldson, despite bogeying the final hole, has won the Abu Dhabi Championship by a single shot over third round leader, Justin Rose, and my pick after round three, Thorbjorn Olesen.
Over at the Humana Challenge, Scot Stallings has scooted five clear of the field with a round to go and at 1.705/7, he's not too short to tempt. I have to confess, I'm smarting somewhat not to be on Scott as I'd highlighted the link between this event and the True South Classic (won last year by Stallings) in my preview, yet I didn't back him!
Ian at www.sportsbettingindex.com alerted me to the link twelve months ago and fortunately he was wise enough to back him, so good luck Ian!
Not only am I a tad miffed that I'm not on the likely winner, I'm also a bit frustrated that he looks to have thwarted my round four plans too. Also covered in the preview, under the heading In-Play Tactics, I detailed how at least one player in each of the five renewals preceding last year's event had traded odds-on and failed to win. I was all set to get my trading boots on, laying anyone that went odds-on, or shorter than I thought they should be and with the likes of ever-popular but often dodgy finishers, Charles Howell III, Stewart Cink and John Rollins in the mix, as well as a plethora of maidens, it might have been fun, but I fancy Stallings may have put pay to that plan now.
Stallings has already won twice on the PGA Tour and in impressive style too. He led by a stroke after round three at last year's aforementioned True South Classic, before shooting 67 to win by two and he claimed his maiden title from just one back after 54 holes at the Greenbrier Classic in 2011, after he got the better of the vastly more experienced Bob Estes and Bill Hass in a playoff.
I know we've seen a few odds-on third round leaders fail to convert of late but those pressing the pink button with relish on this occasion, might be making a mistake.
My in-running play, Charley Hoffman, is one of the five players on -17 and tied for second, so my week's not completely over with if Stallings wobbles but I'm not hold my breath.
I'll be back tomorrow with the week's De-Brief.
15:30 - January 19, 2013
We're three quarters of the way through the Abu Dhabi Championship and the very top of the leaderboard looks much the same as it did after day one. Justin Rose still leads and Jamie Donaldson and Thorbjorn Olesen are still hot on his heels. Here's the third round leaderboard with prices to back, as at 15.20pm.
Justin Rose -12 1.715/7
Thorbjorn Olesen -10 7.26/1
Jamie Donaldson -10 9.08/1
Thongchai Jaidee -9 15.014/1
Richie Ramsay -8 40.039/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -8 40.039/1
David Howell -8 55.054/1
Martin Kaymer -6 55.054/1
-7 and 120.0119/1 Bar
At first glance, Rose looks in a strong position and a fair price to convert but a quick examination of his in-contention stats reveal that might not be the case. He's led or co-led with a round to go 11 times since 2005 and he's won just four times - not a great conversion ratio. And three of those wins came when he was as many as four clear. His record when leading by two or less isn't pretty, he's done so seven times and won just once and that was at the Australian Masters in 2006 when his final round 73 was somehow enough.
I wrote on Thursday about how much his record has improved when he's led an event early on, and without a doubt the above stats are somewhat misleading, but is he a 1.75/7 shot tomorrow? Not for me. I've layed back my stake and a little more besides and made a small play on his playing partner, Thorbjorn Olesen, who may yet retrieve the week for Nike.
I haven't at any stage felt comfortable with this event from a punting perspective and I still feel that way. Changing direction midstream is never an easy thing to do but logic determines that I do. The whole world knows how hot a prospect young Olesen is and this looks like a good opportunity for him to take the next step - especially if Rose wobbles. We'll see.
Over at the Humana Challenge, the event looks no easier to call than it did yesterday. I topped-up my in-running wager on Charley Hoffman, who still looks huge to me, after he'd made eagle on his 6th hole, but other than that, I've done nothing more. Zach Johnson is two off the lead on an extremely congested leaderboard and he's now the favourite at 9.28/1.
I fancy this event is going to offer up lots of in-running trading opportunities during the final round, which I'll detail tomorrow, but for now I'm going to leave the event alone and see what round three brings.
15:10 - January 18, 2013
The Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods show is over for this week at least, with both men missing the cut at the Abu Dhabi Championship. McIlroy shot a second successive 75, despite switching back to his old putter, and Woods missed out on weekend employment courtesy of a two-shot penalty incurred for a rules infringement .
In addition to the putter switch, Rory also spoke of how he wasn't happy with his driver, so it seems the transition to Nike hasn't been as smooth as we were all led to believe.
Back to the tournament itself, and the morning starters on day one enjoyed a big advantage. They averaged exactly 1.5 shots less than the afternoon guys, highlighting what a good effort Justin Rose's first round was.
I'm happy that I've Rose onside and I'm not about to lay off, he's still the likeliest winner, despite the fact that the classy trio of Thorbjorn Olesen, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano and Jamie Donaldson are within one of his -8 score.
My pre-event pick, Martin Kaymer, had a funny day. Bolting out of the gates with three birdies in the first four holes, he looked like mounting a very serious challenge to Rose's halfway total but three bogeys in-a-row derailed his progress. He settled down on the back-nine and ended the day on -4 and four back of Rose. I've done nothing further in-running today and I'm going to see how tomorrow pans out now - there are a number of quality players lurking alongside Kaymer and within four of Rose's lead so I'm far from confident.
Over at the Humana Challenge, despite having backed joint-leader, Jason Kokrak, at a big price, day one was a bit of a disappointment. Not only are the majority of my numerous pre-event picks out of it already, but several players that I very nearly included, went well.
I thought Patrick Cantlay might have been inspired by last week's winner, Russell Henley, with whom he played lots of golf with in his amateur days, and that seems to have been the case. He's two off the lead. Past winner, Charley Hoffman, looked a big price before the off, and late invite, Bobby Gates, ticked the big-hitting youngster that had missed the cut at last week's Sony box. They're both on -6 and three off the lead. I've added all three now, at what I think are still generous prices given their respective positions in the tournament. And I've also backed joint-leader James Hahn, another PGA Tour rookie that can get it out there off the tee.
It's a bunched leaderboard and a very opening looking betting heat, with last week's winner, Henley, after yet another stunning putting display, just one off the lead and trading as favourite.
For your information, here are the hole averages from the three courses on day one -
Palmer Course: 69.71
La Quinta: 69.77
Nicklaus Private: 68.23
16:05 - January 17, 2013
Day one has drawn to a close at the Abu Dhabi Championship and we have a strong and deserving new favourite in the shape of Justin Rose, who after bogeying his first hole, went on to record a five under par 67 to tie the lead with Jamie Donaldson.
Taking on Rose when he'd led early was a proven formula at one point - between July 2002 and November 2009 he led or co-led 11 times without winning - often he'd be out of it by the end of day two! But as he's matured that record has improved and he's now won two of the last four he's led after day one.
Now that he's a solid and reliable closer, a great driver of the ball (an essential skill here this week) and given that he seems to have quite taken to this desert golf lark, judging by his final round of 62 at the DP World Tour Championship as well as his effort here so far. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at his current price of 4.77/2 and I've had a small bet myself.
It appears you could afford a slow start in the early days of the Abu Dhabi Championship. Inaugural winner, Chris DiMarco, was five off the lead after day one and 12 months later, Paul Casey went on to win having been eight back after the opening round but the last five winners have all been inside the top-20 and within three of the lead. With that in mind, I've also backed Michael Campbell (on -3 and two off the lead) at 120.0119/1.
In addition to those two post-round wagers, I've also added a couple more in-running, and not very successfully. Both Thomas Bjorn and Paul Lawrie disappointed after I'd backed them but I haven't given up on them yet. The stats say you need to be up on the pace but I can't see the leaders running away - the course is just playing too tough. One or two players are sure to manage a low one tomorrow somehow, no matter how tough, one or two always do. I just hope it's Bjorn or Lawrie, or maybe even both!
09:55 - January 17, 2013
I got up very early this morning to watch the Tiger and Rory show on Sky Sports and I'm still undecided as to whether it was worth it.
Pre-event pick, Martin Kaymer, was playing in the big day one three-ball alongside Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy but I wasn't naive enough to think he'd be the centre of attention. Indeed, on several holes they didn't even bother to show all the German's shots, and it's understandable. This morning was always going to be about the 'Nike Boys' with the emphasis very much on Rory and his new clubs - and on first impressions, it looks as though it's going to take a bit of time.
His drive on 18 found the fairway but was some 15/20 yards behind Tiger, which beggared the question, has he lost length with the club switch? With his old driver, the result would have been the other way around - Rory would almost certainly have been the longer of the pair. There were a number of very poor shots from Rory too, leading to a couple of score-busting double bogeys and the putter wasn't exactly hot either but shocking shot of the day was claimed by Woods on the 1st tee (his 10th hole).
There was discernible devilment in Wayne Riley's cheeky commentary after Tiger had completely fatted his tee-shot.
"I don't know about you people," exclaimed Radar.
"But I love watching 14 times major champions top-it off the tee - short of the fairway, it's 70 yards short of the fairway!"
It was an absolute shocker and almost worth getting up for alone.
Kaymer has started moderately, shooting a one under par 71, one better than Tiger and four better than Rory (well done Dan on tipping him up in his three-ball), but he's going to have to improve his driving, which was every bit as bad as his illustrious playing partners and with the fairways nipped in and the rough thick, he won't be winning his fourth title here if he carries on as he's started.
The German found water off the tee twice this morning and seemed to be in the rough far more often than the fairway. And that can't continue. The rough is penal, so much so that Riley described it as an US Open style set-up, sentiments I'd read elsewhere in the run-up to the event and that doesn't bode well for the poor drivers.
Rory may have started poorly (his 75 was his worst score here since his debut 73, 21 rounds ago) but there was better news for another new Nike player. Thorbjorn Olesen' s club switch has almost gone unnoticed with all the fuss surrounding Rory. He seems to have gotten to grips with his new bats far quicker than the Irishman though - opening his account for the week with a four under par 68, to trail current leader, Jamie Donaldson, by one.
If driving accuracy is going to be the key stat this week, then Justin Rose could be your man. Playing in the afternoon wave of starters, he bogeyed the 1st but since then he's picked up three birdies and he's now favourite.
You'll see below that I added Berndt Wiesberger before the off, when he drifted markedly but I haven't got involved in-running yet. That may change during the live coverage at 10.00am though.
I'll be back at the close of play but in the meantime, here's my preview for the weeks other event, the Humana Challenge.
Abu Dhabi Championship Pre-event Selections
Martin Kaymer @ 12.011/1
Berndt Wiesberger @ 130.0129/1 (backed after the preview was posted)
In-Play Bets
Thomas Bjorn @ 60.059/1
Paul Lawrie @ 100.099/1
Michael Cambell @ 120.0119/1
Justin Rose @ 4.77/2
Justin Rose layed back at 1.705/7
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 7.413/2
Humana Challenge Pre-Event Selections
Phil Mickelson @ 19.5n/a
Ben Crane @ an average of 130.0129/1
Graham DeLaet @ 180.0179/1
Kyle Stanley @ 180.0179/1
Jason Kokrak @ 270.0269/1
Luke List @ 300.0299/1
Patrick Reed @ 300.0299/1
Stephen Ames @ 360.0359/1
Bart Bryant @ 1000.0n/a
In-Play Bets
James Hahn @ 40.039/1
Patrick Cantlay @ 70.069/1
Charley Hoffman @ 90.089/1 and again @ 46.045/1
Bobby Gates @ 240.0239/1
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter
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