Farmers Insurance Open Tips: Emerging US stars can put Tiger in the shade

Brandt Snedeker's profile is rising fast, as his odds fall

Usurped by Rory McIlroy as world number one and Nike's golden boy, Tiger Woods' place in the golfing hierachy is slipping. Paul Krishnamurty argues that its time to start backing the rising stars set to overtake him... 

It is time, sadly, to break what felt like it would be the habit of a lifetime. For as long as Betfair has been in existence, golf punters have been able to follow one golden, lucrative rule - back Tiger Woods at Torrey Pines. Even the fact he was always a short-priced favourite didn't matter. In six attempts at what is currently known as the Farmers Insurance Open between 2003 and 2008, Tiger won five times. He even won a US Open here despite a broken leg.

During all those years, Tiger was never available at anywhere near this week's 7.87/1, yet these odds reflect fear of that course record rather than his realistic chance of winning. The same phenomenon can be seen in the US Masters betting, for which Tiger remains only 8.88/1 despite failing to win anything since last July.

While one can understand punters' loyalty to a legend, the harsh truth is that he simply isn't the same player that won all those titles. When Tiger dominated Torrey Pines, he was the longest driver, best iron player and scrambler, tackling a course that places a premium on those three skills. Moreover, he was the fiercest, most nerveless competitor of all-time, utterly reliable in contention. The same cannot be said in any of those areas anymore, especially the last. On occasion, such as during the Ryder Cup and to some extent last week in Abu Dhabi, his form has been atrocious.

If indeed Tiger is under-priced, there must be value elsewhere, especially on a course that offers such strong clues. Woods wasn't the only player to repeatedly thrive here and it isn't hard to identify those likely to rack up multiple wins in this event. I still expect Torrey Pines to be a course where the best invariably separate themselves from the rest, and if Woods wasn't in this field, the principle course specialists would be much shorter. 

Take the last two Torrey Pines champions, Brandt Snedeker and Bubba Watson, available at 16.015/1 and 17.5n/a respectively. Both have improved leaps and bounds since first taking a liking for this course and then going on to win this title. FedEx Cup champ Snedeker finished third here way back during his rookie year of 2007 and last year's victory was his fifth top-nine finish. Similarly, Bubba was fourth in that 2007 renewal and rated a future major champion by very few when winning in 2010. 

Nowadays, both are established Ryder Cup stars, without doubt amongst their country's best chances of winning major tournaments. Though Rickie Fowler has yet to hit quite the same heights, he is another would-be major winner with a promising Torrey Pines record, finsihing fifth in 2010 and making the top-20 on both attempts since. 

All three started the season well with a top-six finish at Kapalua and must already rate serious candidates for all the forthcoming majors, yet are way down the Masters pecking order. Golf may be going through a transitional period as older stars like Woods, Phil Mickelson and Ernie Els decline, so that pecking order may well alter dramatically as the big events unfold in the weeks ahead. For punters, the name of the game is not only about finding winners now, but getting the early Masters value. To those ends, my advice is to get onboard this improving American trio both this week and for the Masters.

Recommended Bets

Farmers Insurance Open  

Back Brandt Snedeker 4u @ 16.5n/a
Back Bubba Watson 4u @ 17.5n/a
Back Rickie Fowler 2u @ 34.033/1

US Masters

Back Bubba Watson @ 40.039/1
Back Brandt Snedeker @ 55.054/1
Back Rickie Fowler @ 90.089/1